Get ready for another series of power outages and rolling blackouts in Texas: HOUSTON (Reuters) -The operator of Texas’s power grid on Sunday called on state residents for the second time this year to conserve energy, warning of potential rolling blackouts amid predictions for record-high temperatures on Monday.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/texas-grid-operator-asks-u…
But it’s all the fault of renewable energy.
OTFoolish
“But it’s all the fault of renewable energy.”
Actually, it is…
Wind generation is at low low levels due to persistent high pressure and high highs and high lows. No fronts moving through. Highest wind levels are recorded spring and fall with highest generation of power - sometimes half of what is needed in TX. Summer and winter are ‘low’ months for wind generation. Unfortunately, demand is highest in winter and summer!
Plus, of course, record demand. A million or two new users - who have illegally crossed the border and now in TX sucking up KWHs of electricity. More houses and apartments each year. Plus hundred thousand folks fleeing other states and moving to TX each year.
I suspect NM, OK and KS and LA have no spare power to lend themselves…heck, more power is used in DFW and Houston areas that is generated in the entire state of LA or OK or NM…
t.
Here is the Texas ERCOT wind integration report for Sunday, July 10.
https://www.ercot.com/misdownload/servlets/mirDownload?doclo…
From page 1, installed wind capacity is 35,391 MW. Wind power output at the high point system demand for that day was 4768 MW. So the capacity factor at the peak demand hour was about 13%.
Scrolling down to page 4, wind output does seem to be low for the past few days. But it is highly cyclical, usually peaking around midnight, then decreasing down to a minimum in the middle part of the day.
They give the same report for solar power.
https://www.ercot.com/misdownload/servlets/mirDownload?doclo…
From the graphs, it can be seen solar is quite cyclical as well. Obviously, max solar output is in the middle part of the day, when the sun is high in the sky. The high demand hour is usually around 6 pm, when neither wind nor solar are producing their maximum.
In case you were wondering, the four nuclear power plants have been running at 100% output, 24 hours a day, supplying 5,000 MW of baseload power.
https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/event-status/…
The Texas nuclear plants are Comanche Peak 1, 2 and South Texas 1, 2.
From looking at the rest of the nuclear fleet, it appears every other operational nuclear plant in the US is producing power. Almost all of them at or near 100% output.
t,
One problem with your response is that the highest temperatures of the day, with the corresponding peak electricity demand, happens during the times of peak production of renewable solar power:
https://www.almanac.com/fact/what-is-the-hottest-time-of-day…
As can be seen in this report the hottest average daily temperature occur during the daylight hours not during the hours of darkness when the output of the solar panels is at its lowest and demand is also lower.
The other issue is that winds are generally stronger and more consistent at the coasts due do the onshore breezes during the summer and offshore winds during the winter.
OTFoolish
“As can be seen in this report the hottest average daily temperature occur during the daylight hours not during the hours of darkness when the output of the solar panels is at its lowest and demand is also lower.”
Actually, the hottest part of day here is 5-6pm these days. Hits 100 by noon…and 105 by 5pm. Still 95F at 10pm and only getting down to low 80s.
Solar peaks at noon. Great. Luckily , many solar farms in west TX nearly an hour behind Dallas and San Antonio…and 1 1/2 hours behind Houston…put out power till 6pm. Then fall off quick.
When folks arrive home at 5pm, their a/c units are cranked up. Perhaps 80 at home during day if no one there, but now to 77 or lower by 6pm. Smart thermostats. Then they cook at 5-6pm taking more juice. turn on lights.
Some of thermal plants tripping off…been running at max for over a month now. Most are old. No one wants to build new thermal plants.
t.
This is true. Looking at the PVGR (PhotoVoltaic Generation Resources) information for July 13…
https://www.ercot.com/misdownload/servlets/mirDownload?doclo…
https://www.ercot.com/misdownload/servlets/mirDownload?doclo…
… on the top graph on page 3, the peak for solar is in the 12:00 hour. From page 1, the max system load for that day was in the 5 pm hour (17:00), when solar PV output was already declining. The maximum load has been peaking in the ERCOT system at around 78,000 MW for several days now.
I printed out the graphs for wind and solar generation for July 13, and took careful measurements of the hourly production for that day. Summing up each hour, I can get the total wind and solar production for that day, and can also calculate a daily capacity factor.
For July 13, in the Texas ERCOT system…
Solar Capacity: 12,127 MW
Solar Generation (24 hours): 85,447 MWh
Solar Capacity Factor (24 hrs): 29.4%
Wind Capacity: 35,391 MW
Wind Generation: 133,415 MWh
Wind Capacity Factor: 15.7%
Nuclear Capacity: 4,985 MW
Nuclear Generation: 119,640 MWh
Nuclear Capacity Factor: 100%
Nuclear has less than half of the installed capacity of solar, but the nuclear plants produced more electricity over 24 hours. This is the middle of summer, when solar generation is supposed to be high. Nuclear has 14% of the capacity of wind power, but nuclear produced almost as much electricity that day.
One problem with your response is that the highest temperatures of the day, with the corresponding peak electricity demand, happens during the times of peak production of renewable solar power
Peak electricity demand is later in the day as solar is fading. Do a search for “duck curve”.
DB2
And at the same time that homes are cranking up their power demands offices and factories are lowering their usage. Fully powering a 30 story office tower or a 120,000 sqft factory is going to use more power than your typical block of houses.
Plus if you were on a regional power grid by time things were winding down in Texas the Sun is still shining in California.
OTFoolish
Here are ERCOT’s own supply and demand figures:
https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards/supplyanddemand…
Notice that demand actually peaks around 17:30 or 5:30PM.
And before you blame renewable power for the Texas issue the MAXIMUM amount that renewables supply is approximately 18.75% of the total demand.
OTFoolish
OOT:ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/06/02/blackout-states-s…
Don’t tell anyone, but the midwest is struggling too…
California is probably close to rolling blackouts if it gets hot there and in OR and WA…not any power to ‘borrow’. …
New Mexico, TX neighbor, also having real problems with drought and power shortages.
It’s a problem all over. Shut down your coal plants , don’t have enough solar and nukes (they’ve been shutting them down too)…and it’s disaster
When five or ten or 20 million EVs need charges along the interstates…well…that’s going to be it… 250KW per charge point…times thousands.
Just saw where GM and a major truck stop operator - Flying J and another, with 500 locations, will built thousands of charge points at 50 mile spacing. That’s gigawatts of needed new power. When do people travel on vacation? Summer time! Throw in thousands of EV trucks…that really will suck up the power…
You’ll have to be expanding the countries power by 1000 GW a year…
IL is already in crisis…so is much of midwest…
t.
Plus if you were on a regional power grid by time things were winding down in Texas the Sun is still shining in California.
AFAIK, there aren’t any connections between west coast grids and the rest of the country. Do you know of some?
DB2
“Plus if you were on a regional power grid by time things were winding down in Texas the Sun is still shining in California.”
California doesn’t even have enough renewables to keep the lights on. They get gigawatts of power borrowed from OR and WA all the time…and still face rolling blackouts when it’s hot in WA and OR and they can’t deliver.
It would be smarter to spend the 10+ billion it would cost to build a power line from DFW/Houston to CA used 1% of the time or less… and build more solar farms in west TX, with natural gas backup.
t.
And here in the North East where we have a regional grid consisting of multiple states and even includes Canadian Hydropower we are enjoying our air conditioning with no issues.
My next question is how long will any large business decide to stay in Texas when the tax savings equal less than their revenue loses from having no power?
OTFoolish
And isn’t the lack of having any connections between the grids actual the problem?
OTFoolish
Now, I thought that the whole problem in Texas is because of the renewable electricity sources and YOU want to spend more money on Solar???
OTFoolish
“Now, I thought that the whole problem in Texas is because of the renewable electricity sources and YOU want to spend more money on Solar???”
Actually, TX is building GW of solar, but needs even more.
In the summer time, wind power drops to minimal levels. Same in winter.
So…for summer demand, we need more solar - lots more…but of course, the sun doesn’t shine at night…so you need lots of NG and nuke power to get you through dinner hour and the night. Wind picks up a bit after daily doldrums.
In Spring and Fall, wind power can provide, at times, 35% of all power used in TX.
Right now, OK is seeing 110F type temps and it’s grid and power generators are maxxed out. NO spare power.
NM has been right at critical levels for two months now…
there’s no power to ‘borrow’…from anywhere within 500 miles.
Oh, and KS is hitting record type temps too with ‘heat alerts’.
Of course, TX power generation is 15 times larger than the state of NM, and 10 times larger than the state of OK…
Minor detail…there’s 2 million people in the entire state of NM. There’s 28.5 million in TX.
You think they have 3000% spare capacity for TX? to borrow say 3 gigawatts?
Minor detail…there’s 4 million people in the entire state of OK. 28.5 million in TX. You think that OK generates extra gigawatts to lend to TX? Ha…
There’s 4.5 million folks in LA. You think they have 500% spare capacity to loan, say 3 or 4 gigawatts to TX?
I keep hearing about ‘not connected to the grid’…but it would be thousands and thousands of miles to get to places that have extra gigawatts to spare…on a regular basis…to borrow.
t.
Electricity from Hydro-Quebec enters the North East Grid through upstate New Hampshire and Maine before it is added to the energy pool. A state like Conn does not have a direct line running to Canada as the shared grid power is available though the normal energy pool connections. So Conn is linked to RI and to Mass, which are linked to NH, VT, and ME which are linked to Canada etc,.
So, when it gets hot it is everyone into the pool. See real simple.
OTFoolish
AFAIK, there aren’t any connections between west coast grids and the rest of the country.
—
And isn’t the lack of having any connections between the grids actual the problem?
Partially. I don’t know the history/backstory of why the west is isolated. Distance? Mountains?
DB2