Thanks Warren and Charlie

The horses sure are getting nervous. Was listening to a group talking stocks and markets last nights and you could hear the fear under this house of cards market.

. Taper
. Index funds flows distorting the markets
. High valuations
. Options market extremes
. Frauds and promoters everywhere
. Low quality stocks getting cut down

Meanwhile

I was telling my wife, who has zero interest in stocks, that Berkshire had gone up quite a bit in recent weeks. Her response was, so what that just the market price. We are over 90% in Berkshire.

With all the noise gathering pace I reminded myself of two facts:

  1. Buffett stayed in Omaha to shield himself from over stimulation from Wall Street types

  2. My personal share of Berkshire’s owner earnings hasn’t changed in the last few weeks other than normal monthly business progress and a slight dampening of buyback benefits

I slept pretty well and am thankful to have Warren & company looking after me during these uncertain times.

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Given record valuations in the market, I’m always reminded of what Charlie said that Berkshire can and has dropped 50% on 3 or 4 previous occasions and that it’s part and parcel of being a shareholder, taking the long term view and patience.

I don’t care in the slightest if Brk drops 50% and I’m happy to hold, I’ll buy more this year if it does!

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By co-incidence yesterday a golfing friend called me to say he was thinking of selling his mutual funds and buying back in later and hopefully cheaper and wanted to know what I thought of the idea. I asked him what it would cost to sell - didn’t know. Asked what it would cost to get back in - didn’t know. I asked him what the MER was on these funds, didn’t know what an MER is. I explained and then said that is why I don’t like mutuals as the fees add up over time. Then I quoted the “more money has been lost trying to market time then by remaining invested” line. I advised if has no need for the money in the next few years he should do nothing. He knows I am a long time(25 years)very satisfied BRK investor who has been to a couple of annual meetings but we never discuss it much as it is not his thing as you might have guessed. I am certainly not qualified as an advisor but he asked so I did my best. My two takeaways from this were 1) those mutual salesmen are doing well (where are the customers yachts?) 2) Thank you Warren and Charlie (and twentyehs who got me started). I never dreamed I would have what BRK has provided me.

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I was just having a look at some other old staples. I’ve not checked for a long time… Walmart PE 50 and Costco 47… unreal, and everyone says it’s just tech at crazy valuations?

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Target seems much more reasonable imo at its valuation especially with its huge growth in its digital presence accelerated by the pandemic. Thoughts?

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There are more being offered being a long time Brk shareholder. I have also become smarter with the stock market over time.

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Warren chose Kroger PE c16

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“If you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of fifty percent two or three times a century, you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.”

— Charlie Munger

The wife and I were on a walk yesterday, and I mentioned how much we were up already this year, after our best year ever in $ terms last year.

Her response: it could drop in half by February.

I love that lass.

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<<<<Given record valuations in the market, I’m always reminded of what Charlie said that Berkshire can and has dropped 50% on 3 or 4 previous occasions and that it’s part and parcel of being a shareholder, taking the long term view and patience.>>>>

It can’t be a more exciting time for long term holders of Berkshire. This-Time-It’s-Different is probably a truism that never existed in past draw downs. Someone correct me if wrong, but in none of the other 50% drawdowns in the past, there was a burgeoning stock buyback like we have today. And a $150B war chest(>25% of IV) and cash oozing out of the ears!

Bring it on!!

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I was just having a look at some other old staples. I’ve not checked for a long time… Walmart PE 50 and Costco 47… unreal, and everyone says it’s just tech at crazy valuations?

Retail pharmacies like CVS and WAG may be the bargains because everybody believes Amazon will crush them. But then they thought COST, TGT, KR were also Amazon road kill.

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I think Jim has previously pointed out that cash on the balance sheet now is proportionate historically to total assets say 20 years ago equivalent Also we need c60bn-80bn in reserve now as a minimum, correct Jim?

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I think Jim has previously pointed out that cash on the balance sheet now is proportionate historically to total assets say 20 years ago equivalent Also we need c60bn-80bn in reserve now as a minimum, correct Jim?

I think the general conclusion is that cash has replaced many of the bond investments; and that the equity portion has roughly remained constant.

Note: My own portfolio has experienced a similar change (sold out of bonds a couple of years ago; held those funds in cash).

tecmo

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Retail pharmacies like CVS and WAG may be the bargains

I owned both and WAG I am out. CVS my cost basis is $50. It is now $100+, I think between the two, CVS is better positioned.

TGT is another great run, even thought it declined still it is 100% gain, they have a better digital strategy.

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