That's going to leave a mark

…on my psyche.

My overall portfolio went down almost 5% TODAY! OUCH! Nothing to write home about, there.

No plans to get out, but it’s amazing how much more my portfolio is down than the market in general since last summer. I do realize that on UP days it also outperforms the market, but these days hurt.

Will continue looking to add to the best buying opportunities, but will slow down my allocation some as I KNOW the market could keep this up a lot longer than my cash will hold out.


It has been pretty bad since last July for my portfolios. MF stocks are just getting crushed. Hard to stomach but this too shall pass.


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It has been pretty bad since last July for my portfolios.

Hey guys, this has been a bad market for everyone. I just glanced at the MF RB recommendations for 2015, and 23 of 24 are showing a loss since recommendation. And these are good companies, with bright futures for the most part. The market does this sometimes!


I just read something today which reinforces what Saul is saying. That even if one had perfect foresight, and knew exactly what stocks would be the best performing for the next five, ten years, their portfolio would still suffer through massive beat downs and drawbacks.

Our bottom line result is that perfect foresight has great returns, but gut-wrenching drawdowns. In other words, an active manager who was clairvoyant, and knew ahead of time exactly which stocks were going to be long-term winners and long-term losers, would likely get fired many times over if they were managing other people’s money.

Question: if God is omnipotent, could he create a hedge fund that was so good that he could never get fired? No. It turns out even God would most likely get fired as an active investor.

Continue reading at…

Preaching to myself as much as anyone else.

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Today I added to some of my positions and opened a few new ones. Part of this was after selling out of some stocks and part was by using some of my cash reserves.

My portfolio is down significantly over the last several months. I do not know if today was an ideal time to buy. I just saw that there were some fairly attractive prices.

There is likely ( it seems to me ) more downside / opportunity ahead, but I do not know anything about the future.

These boards are helpful, as are the MF boards,


Helpful ?
I should say Very helpful

Hey guys, this has been a bad market for everyone.

Only a bad market if you are long stocks… no one says you have to be long stocks…


Between having a little cash set aside, using a little margin and also raising some cash by selling some of my stocks that have faired much better and presumably might not take off as much upon recovery (CASY for example)I do have some dry powder to buy good stocks.

Issue however is, is that it is easy for those to suggest that I should wait, as better prices are on the way, but there is no way that I can know when that day is.

Although I could time it perfectly the odds are that I wont.

First I though let me wait for a recovery and follow through day but in reality that could also just be a mini relief rally that means I would actually be paying more not less only to find the downward trend resumes.

And so unless someone can suggest a better Idea, I have decided that I am going to assume that there are 5 more opportunities for better prices with significant daily drops and so I have divided my capital into 5 and on each one of those dismal days or dismal weeks I will buy with my 1/5th the stocks that I feel offer the most compelling prices. I will spread that capital out over half of the 22 stocks I own based upon the degree of drop and the attractiveness of the stock.

There is a chance that I might shoot too early or even too late but I don’t know of a better way of doing it without having the supreme knowledge of the future.

My first fifth was shot yesterday.


CRAIGDOC66, I am a little concerned that you are selling great companies like CASY to buy beaten down stocks that may be cheap for a reason. What stocks do you have in mind to buy in the near future?

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Firstly let me say I am not selling stocks like CASY but am lightning up on them.

I am not denying that CASY is a great company but from the point of view of stock movement I do believe that if it holds its current position that it might not have as far to run a on recovery as say a CELG, SWKS, INFN, LGIH, AMZN (depending on how far it falls) etc.

I do believe that when you buy a stock you do buy the company but at the same time when you have stocks of good companies falling so far you have to look at the stock as bieng separated from the company and as far as appreciation is concerned I do believe SWKS is more attractive than CASY