It is now officially the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin as politicians from “Moscow and St. Petersburg have now signed a petition demanding Putin’s resignation.”
Some 200 marines from the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s 810th Separate Brigade of Marine Guards, which is stationed in annexed Sevastopol, have refused to take part in Russia’s war against Ukraine. This was stated in an interview with Krym.Realiya by a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitsky.
It is now officially the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin as politicians from “Moscow and St. Petersburg have now signed a petition demanding Putin’s resignation.”
Despite the fact that he’s probably one of the richest people on the planet, Putin doesn’t strike as someone who will retire gracefully (or even ungracefully).
Most likely it will take some type of terminal illness.
Like lead poisoning.
Not holding my breath waiting for a Russian state funeral.
"Despite the fact that he’s probably one of the richest people on the planet, Putin doesn’t strike as someone who will retire gracefully (or even ungracefully).
Most likely it will take some type of terminal illness.
Like lead poisoning."
Haven’t all the top level people suddenly dying…seem to be falling off rooftops, balconies, boats…
With Putin firing dozens of Generals, he’s beginning to sound like Hitler who never had a high level person in charge for more than a few months, sometimes only weeks - by the dozens.
For the west, constant churning is good…turmoil, suspicion at every level, wondering if you’ll suddenly have an accident…or be targeted by Ukrainians as large number of Generals seem to die that way.
Now, with the capture of some Russian ammo dumps, the Russians will get to experience their onw weapons used against them. Plus of course, millions of rounds of ammo and weapons.
Stalin picked 3 generals and pitted them against each other to conquer the next prize - all were very good. He didn’t hire/fire them by the dozens. Of course, the Russians were ‘repelling invaders’ and taking revenge for the atrocities…unlike here where the Russians are the invaders and most of the troops have no incentive to really fight. The Ukrainians do. Roles reversed.
This is going to get interesting. Perhaps even usher in democracy.
Putin has not had time to set up extermination camps or get the public ready as Hitler did to kill fellow German elite from the beginning.
Putin has another endgame to think over, if he goes Stalin his military will fall apart, Russia will be on the verge of hyperinflation…his swan dive will look like Mussolini’s body being dragged through the streets by the common men and women.
It is also telling that Crimea will be released by the Russian forces.
I believe it would be an error to assume that a new leader would be better than Putin or usher in more democracy. I not saying that couldn’t happen. Just that it is not a given outcome.
The acts in getting Putin to resign will demand power sharing among the elite.
If Putin goes Stalinist he loses his military command in larger part at this point. He loses in Ukraine either way.
If he goes Stalinist he can not make a case to the Russian people for what he would ‘need’ to do.
The sheer power of Putin is up against splintering here.
That will hardly be a perfect democracy movement. But the west does not have perfect democratic republics either. It has to start somewhere.
The actual assumption that matters here is will Russia’s military release Crimea. The answer is looking like yes. In challenging Putin Crimea is not important enough to hold.
I believe it would be an error to assume that a new leader would be better than Putin or usher in more democracy. I not saying that couldn’t happen. Just that it is not a given outcome.
I agree, leaders come and go but geopolitics stay pretty much the same. Russia needs/wants buffer states.
An agreement like Bretton Woods did change geopolitics favorably for a few decades just like the Treaty of Versailles screwed up geopolitics even more. The UN would be useful if it actually did what it was set up for – to unite nations.
I don’t believe the war is a major driver of the market.
I agree that the war, itself, despicable as it is, is not a major market driver. That said, the consequential disruption to the flow of finance, fuel, commerce, food, shipping and so on ARE major forces which have driven the market. The ending of the war to the benefit of Ukraine will buoy the market, but a more ambiguous end or one that favors Russia, well, not so much.
It is now officially the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin…
Maybe, but he has such a tight hold on Russian media that he still has overwhelming support among the Russian population. They still think they are the good guys. Sure, the successful Ukrainian offensive has put some cracks in the veneer, but there is a lot of baseball left to play before Putin gets pushed into retirement (or out the nearest window).
I think it was the Anne Applebaum piece in the Atlantic the other day that pointed this out: Russia has no succession plan. There is no Politburo from the old Soviet days that could meet and name a new leader. There is no possibility of a “no confidence vote” like in the U.K. system. There are no free and fair elections with legitimate opposition. There is simply no mechanism in place for an alternative leader to emerge.
Don’t get me wrong. I hope it’s the end of Putin. Can’t happen soon enough as far as I’m concerned. Years of painful and debilitating cancer couldn’t happen to a better guy.
And to some of the other comments in the thread, yes, the next guy might be even worse, but I think the world is willing to roll those dice.
I have a strong feeling that the current bear market will end if the hostilities in Ukraine cease so however that might come about, I’m for it.
I get people who are simply long would be pulling for that…but…
Dont fight the FED! The power involved is American and far more powerful than any of Russia’s economic ideas has ever been. Russia has shaken Europe. That is Russia’s mistake. The ECB and EU have much more serious power as well. There are two major reserve currencies.
The IRR at all US corporations will continue to drop into 2023.
Typical Russian planning. They need no buffer states with NATO. Russia needs a buffer state with China. Oh wait a minute Russia is the buffer state with China.
Putin sees buffer states as protecting him personally. That is not true either. In fact that is becoming his downfall.
More specific to the American public, we needed an enemy to spend $54 billion plus on a war. Our press pushed us at key times that all Russians overwhelmingly support Putin. Putin's polltakers were used in our small war efforts.
It was us against them while it lasted.
Now back to a Moscow reality, the Russian public are about as cynical as anyone can get.
I’m rooting for a Ukrainian victory but I think it’s pretty clear that if somehow Russia were to win this war or we reach a stalemate where Russia keeps some territorial gains and acknowledges Ukraine as a county (increasingly likely) and we have peace in the region the world would accept the new reality and get back to business.
Russia may be an economic footnote in the current world but the disruption of natural resource flows from this war is a major driver of inflation and the FED’s actions.
There are other factors but the war is large and outside the FED’s control.
The FED only manages the FF rate and buying and selling bonds further out the yield curve. That alone is enough to make or brake countries across the globe.
The ECB is almost as relevant.
It is enough power for them without worrying about news articles having to do with wars and stuff.
Find a college class online and study public finance. It would help you.
I’m rooting for a Ukrainian victory but I think it’s pretty clear that if somehow Russia were to win this war or we reach a stalemate where Russia keeps some territorial gains and acknowledges Ukraine as a county (increasingly likely) and we have peace in the region the world would accept the new reality and get back to business.
And in 6-10 years we’ll be assured by all sort of experts that there’s no way Russia is going to… oops they just invaded Ukraine. (Or maybe Georgia or one of their other neighbors.)