Two Russian-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine announced plans to hold referendums on joining Russia later this week and an ally of President Vladimir Putin said the votes would alter the geopolitical landscape in Moscow’s favour forever.
Obviously the Ukraine & West claim the election will be a showcase sham and are meaningless. The areas do have more ethnic Russians than Ukrainians and could possibly vote for annexation.
This a move by Putin to muddy the political waters.
Any military operations mounted by the Ukraine in these areas will be claimed an attack on Mother Russia by Putin and might likely garner more domestic support for the war. The West will claim the referendums are shams & illegal to boot and thus are worthless & meaningless.
I would say we are close to a Cuban Missile Crisis II except it is in the Ukraine. Welcome to the Cold War II that may turn hot.
I wonder if any of the best & brightest in DC or the EU planned for this possible scenario? Or did they calculate that Putin would backdown & end the war?
I postulate that a nuclear exchange would have a macroeconomic impact on the world economy.
I wonder if any of the best & brightest in DC or the EU planned for this possible scenario? Or did they calculate that Putin would backdown & end the war?
Just out of curiosity but what is your alternative? Given Putin’s desire to restore the Soviet empire it seems pretty obvious that the Ukraine was just the beginning of a Russian expansion. I know that if I lived in Poland I would be pretty happy the West has chosen to make a stand in the Ukraine.
Yes, it will be a tough winter. But Europe is becoming increasingly less reliant on Russian energy and in so doing the Russian economy is becoming an increasingly less important component of the global economy. Russia is becoming the European version of North Korea, annoying and a bit scary, but largely inconsequential.
Putin may decide to go nuclear, but I doubt an annexation vote done mostly for PR will have much to do with that decision. More important will be his assessment of Western resolve.
Part A)Just out of curiosity but what is your alternative?
I am not sure there is an alternative. JFK kept the US hawks under control. He offered Khrushchev a sop (removal of unnecessary missiles from Turkey) to prevent a nuclear war. Khrushchev could wave that concession to the Russian public & politburo. I don’t know if there is currently a similar option to offer Putin.
Part B)Given Putin’s desire to restore the Soviet empire it seems pretty obvious that the Ukraine was just the beginning of a Russian expansion.
That is what is being sold to the USian public. When the Soviet Union fell the US took pains not to embarrass a nuclear state even offering a verbal promise NATO would not expand. Subsequent US administrations began the march to the Soviet border. And Secretary Austin has held the promise of NATO membership to Georgia & the Ukraine.
I am not sure there is an alternative. JFK kept the US hawks under control. He offered Khrushchev a sop (removal of unnecessary missiles from Turkey) to prevent a nuclear war. Khrushchev could wave that concession to the Russian public & politburo. I don’t know if there is currently a similar option to offer Putin.
If I were Imperator, here are the face-saving terms I’d offer Putin: Return to pre-2014 borders and you can claim your de-Nazification campaign was a success and you can keep what is left of your army.
Or, you can suffer a humiliating defeat, the borders will revert to pre-2014 anyway, and you won’t get to keep your army.
Putin is about as screwed as he can possibly be screwed.
There is a difference between how Russia reacts to attacks by Ukraine on Ukrainian soil and attacks by Ukraine of what Russia considers Russian soil (like Crimea which was annexed). I think this is a ploy to legitimatize Russia claiming this land as off-bounds from Ukraine.
We are rapidly approaching a time when we may give Ukraine weapons which will reach into the Russian heartland as a deterrence to Russia’s taking land from Ukraine.
Horribly, the best way to prevent WWIII is to smell WWIII clearly enough to cause nausea, fear, and anguish, and then to think very clearly.
That was a very easy sentence to write but is very difficult to perform.
Right now Russia is insistently creating a lot of smell (playing chicken with nuclear power generating plants, publicly loudly assembling a literal criminal army of lawless goons.
There is a difference between how Russia reacts to attacks by Ukraine on Ukrainian soil and attacks by Ukraine of what Russia considers Russian soil
Putin must be more confident he has the vote rigged now. The vote was supposed to happen some weeks ago, but was postponed.
It has been widely reported that Putin regards all of Ukraine as an integral part of Russia. So, the outcome of a vote that no reasonable person would accept doesn’t matter.
Let’s get this right. Putin and the territories are voting to be together.
Putin and Russia have troops in much of these areas now. The Russian military is under attack day and night by Ukraine’s military.
So after this vote the gloves come off?
I guess this is 'Murika? Where there is a sucker born every day.
If Putin has not thrown enough troops in there to defend it now…how does the vote change things? He annexed these territories already according to his press releases months ago.
Once the areas are annexed, any attacks by Ukraine are an act of war against Russia, (Defined be Russia) then a war can be declared and Russian conscripts can be thrown into battle.
Also, a all out air war against all Ukraine infrastructure would probably be called for. Every bridge, rail yard, power station telephone switching office, water plant, sewer plant, and dam would be a target.
Once the areas are annexed, any attacks by Ukraine are an act of war against Russia, (Defined be Russia) then a war can be declared and Russian conscripts can be thrown into battle.
This creates an odd problem for Putin though. Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are partially controlled by Ukraine. So if they become part of Russia, then that means Ukraine is occupying Russian soil. So how does Putin reconcile a foreign power occupying part of his country? He doesn’t have the power to eject Ukraine from the Donbass. This seems like a potential embarrassment.
If I were Imperator, here are the face-saving terms I’d offer Putin: Return to pre-2014 borders and you can claim your de-Nazification campaign was a success and you can keep what is left of your army.
Or, you can suffer a humiliating defeat, the borders will revert to pre-2014 anyway, and you won’t get to keep your army.
Putin is about as screwed as he can possibly be screwed.
That likely is the only solution that possibly could gain traction in the West. Though I am not sure the US would sign on. If not it is dead in the water.
I am not so sure. If Putin defeated it means is an also ran nation of no significance. A return to 2014 borders does mean Russia is not an also ran nation but it might be enough of a face saving gesture to Putin & Russian people. Why in the heck would we be interested in that? Because if Russia/Putin is publicly humiliated*, that might be too much for Putin & Russian hawks to bear. That is Putin is responsible for that and it is his legacy. Vladamir Putin the man that emasculated Russia. Is Putin’s pride such that he would wish to bring nuclear holacaust to world. Doing so would severely damage the enemy. Depending on the amount of damage the victory of the West & the Ukraine might be considered a pyrrhic one.
George H W Bush-statesman or weak knee leader?
*https://millercenter.org/president/bush/foreign-affairs When the press questioned his lack of enthusiasm over the collapse of the Berlin Wall, Bush responded by stating, “I am not an emotional kind of guy.” In retrospect, many people recognized that by refusing to gloat or declare victory over the Soviet Union, Bush probably helped avoid a backlash by hardliners in Eastern Europe.
You may also remember after coalition entered Kuwait City hostilities were ended with Iraq & Huessein remained in power. Because that never was an objective of the war.
So if they become part of Russia, then that means Ukraine is occupying Russian soil. So how does Putin reconcile a foreign power occupying part of his country? He doesn’t have the power to eject Ukraine from the Donbass. This seems like a potential embarrassment.
Of course, it is a HUGE land mass and I’m guessing there are substantial forces along its various borders, garrisoned in its interior and so on. As we have been discussing, the action in Ukraine has yet to be called “a war” by the Russian government which may limit the numbers and types of troops which could be sent to the front. Back “in the day”, the Red Army numbered in the millions, so my guess is that, should Putin et al change the conflicts designation and start drafting the kids, they could pump up the numbers (but even Putin might get political pushback if “important people’s” kids started coming back in body bags.
Ukraine has not yet won. Russia has not unleashed its wrath against the country. Even using only conventional weapons and its strategic bombers), Russia has the ability to level every Ukrainian city rather than just punch the odd hole in random apartment buildings each night.
What the US military response to the Russians using tactical nukes or poison gas as a battlefield equalizer is not clear, it is also clear that Russia has, so far, decided that those measures are not (yet?) worth the risk. They may be playing a waiting game to see if the EU buckles under a cold winter.
I applaud the advances that Ukraine has made, but from a military standpoint this is far from a done deal at this stage of the game and it would be an error to underestimate the resources Russia can throw at this conflict if they feel they are threatened.
Russia has the ability to level every Ukrainian city rather than just punch the odd hole in random apartment buildings each night.
====================================
Jeff,
This data is obsolete because it was based on February 2022 data. See the following note on the website:
Comparison of military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine 2022
Published by Statista Research Department, Mar 16, 2022
So start subtracting all the Russian aircraft, tanks, armored vehicles, ships, etc. destroyed/captured by the Ukrainians and Russian casualties inflicted by Ukrainians.
Furthermore, the Russian numbers shown by Statista are not and will not be involved in Ukraine war.
IMO Russia does not have the ability to level every Ukrainian city. Russia does not have air superiority over Ukraine.