The Cap

[Leap1]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/04/ukraine-war-how-would-a-g-7-…

The article is uncommitted and undetailed as to how to put a cap in place.

The energy analysts and Russia do not think it will work.

The heart of the matter in my opinion is can the G7 set up leverages such as telling India the tankers with Russian oil will not be insured causing the tankers to not go to India unless the price is x% lower? Of course India would love a lower price. Would Russia ship the oil? Or do India and China first with the G7 tackle Iran for a lower price and insist Russia meet that lower price? Is this done incrementally?

While we all explode with how Klutzy can our politicians get? That is our backseat driving on overdrive. This can be made to quietly happen among them and you would swear it is the Bolshoi Ballet.

Besides wouldn’t you estimate at this point that the most klutzy politico is Putin? Talk about sinking in a swamp. At least Johnson gets to go home soon without being taken out by the English public.

[Leap1]

The Russian background issue or threat the government faces is balancing its budget.

Russia can not borrow.

The Russian central bank can print. The inflation rate will soar making the currency worthless.

Russia has to sell the oil.

If one million barrels for the sake of argument is cut, then the state budget has to be cut. In particular military spending has to be cut.

That leads to the next background threat for Putin. If the military loses, the army is not paid, or the military not armed Putin’s life will be at risk.

While our prices at the pump would soar. I see that. I am not denying it can happen. I am saying though that Putin can not play that card. He can not significantly cut his exports of Russian oil.

If Russia makes a smaller cut of one million barrels we will get it elsewhere. If Russia makes a much bigger cut Russia needs to exit the war. Putin will face his own army against him.