How they got it wrong – pessimistic predictions upended by post-Paris momentum
28 Oct. 2025
Analysis finds that the clean energy transition has advanced far beyond what was predicted a decade ago.
A decade since the landmark Paris Agreement was signed at the COP21 climate summit in 2015, new analysis reveals how cautious or even sceptical forecasts made around a decade ago have been proven wrong by momentum since.
The analysis by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) [1] finds that on measures including clean-energy installation and investment, emissions growth, the rollout of other technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs), and the embedding of climate policy and standards in the global economy, the Paris Agreement has had a transformative global impact.
It finds that:
In 2015, BP’s Energy Outlook [2] predicted that the global non-fossil share of power generation would rise modestly from 32% that year to 38% by the end of its forecast period in 2035. By 2024 non-fossil generation already accounted for over 41% of the global power supply [3] – making more progress in 10 years than was predicted over 20.
Solar and wind have hugely exceeded expectations: the world installed 553 GW of solar in 2024 alone, overshooting 2015 International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts by more than 1,500% [4]. Coal is now in global decline. Total global solar capacity is over four times what was predicted in 2015, and doubling every three years.
EVs have exceeded expectations: 2024 EV deployment is already 40% above the IEA’s 2015 projections, and on track to be 66% higher by 2030. The Paris declaration target of 100 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030 is on target to be hit as soon as 2027.
That statement “Coal is now in global decline” was referring to electricity generation. You took the statement out of context. The author even foot noted the statement to this reference:
From the link, regarding electricity generation for the year 2024…
“The global increase in fossil generation came mostly from coal which rose by 149 TWh (+1.4%). Gas generation increased by 103 TWh (+1.6%). Other fossil fuels saw a minor fall of 7.7 TWh (-0.9%).”
“China and India saw the largest increases in coal generation in 2024, together totalling more than the global net increase.”
Also…
”Global power sector emissions reached a new record high in 2024, rising by 1.6% or 223 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2), compared to 2023. This increase was similar to 2023 (+1.5%) and 2022 (+1.3%) and was driven by an increase in fossil generation, predominantly from coal.”