Today, it’s become apparent that for better or worse, China’s lightning-fast development has been replaced by government slogans like “high-quality development” powered by “new productive forces” as the country becomes an “olive-shaped economy” — no sharp bottoms or tops — experiencing “common prosperity.” All of these amount to explanations by the government that the fast-paced growth era is over, telegraphing to the population that there are new priorities now
The plan for the next decade is to build soft infrastructures like education and healthcare, with the invisible guidance of new technologies driven by data to rationalize everything and make life smoother
To the extent that China is a controlled experiment, the government’s intentions are clear. If China’s move from a low-income society to a medium-income one was driven by urbanization and a massive change in human profiles and industries such as housing construction, its move to a high-income country will be driven by science and technology.
“Key core technologies will achieve major breakthroughs and China will be among the forefront of innovative countries” by “adhering to innovation-driven development” and “aiming at cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, integrated circuits, life and health, brain science, biological breeding, aerospace technology, deep earth and deep sea.”
China’s advances in EV technology is just the beginning. It was planned & started 15 years ago. China is making headway in chip design and manufacturing. Automation & AI will be important to maintain China manufacturing infrastructure.
Will China’s population degrowth crash its economy as per Zeihan prediction? Or will China into its version of Japanese stasis?
Japan is a terrific place. As the joke goes, there are four levels of development: Developed, underdeveloped, Argentina (undevelopable) and Japan (developed to a level unattainable elsewhere).
Strolling through Tokyo after 30 years of stagnation, one can only say that China would be lucky to have such misfortune.
Japan experienced “lost decades” where its economy suffered or “stagnated,” but its culture and environment remained attractive. This suggests, perhaps, that economic growth and well-being are not always linked.
If you want to see what happens to a country that rejects immigration as a solution to falling fertility, Japan is a good place to start.
