https://insideevs.com/news/779210/ev-battery-replacements-data-tesla/
But how many will fail within 6 or 8 years of purchase? And for folks buying used EVs, how many will fail after 10-15 years? A warranty would cover any failure in the first 6 years, so the concern is about post-warranty longevity.
How many ICE vehicles will need new engines, or new transmissions (both?) or at least major repairs in that same time frame? Those repairs are NOT cheap.
Agreed, that is the question. Are ICE vehicles or EVs more prone to very expensive failures once you get beyond the typical warranty period? The OP is noting that EVs aren’t likely to have such a major failure in the first three years, but I don’t think that ICE vehicles are either.
My Hyundai batteries are warranted for 10 years. I’m pretty sure if they didn’t think they would last well beyond that they wouldn’t be offering that kind of coverage (as standard.)
That’s excellent. Mine are 8 years (which, I believe, is federal law). There’s also a mileage component (e.g. 8 years or 80K miles, whichever come first). I don’t recall now.
I wouldn’t worry about the motor failing. Electric motors are extremely simple and reliable. The transmission is another matter, and needs to be maintained. Those are never cheap, whether an EV or an ICE.
The battery in my 2020 Model Y is expected to last 300,000 miles. The battery warranty expires in 2028.
I’m not worried.
intercst
Good question. I believe very few.
The problem with EVs is that the range will decline over time. But when used locally and charged over night; it is not a problem. Taking a 10-15 year old EV on a long trip. Well you will be charging more often. And currently it takes 20 minutes to recharge on a supercharger. Hyundai is working on a solution to reduce that time to 3 minutes. [link at bottom]
If the 3 minute charge can be done; EVs won’t need the current large battery packs. Smaller battery pack means more affordable EVs.
https://batterytools.net/ev-battery-degradation-chart/
EV Battery Degradation Chart
Degradation (%) Mileage (mi)
100% 0
90% 27,500
80% 55,000
70% 82,500
60% 110,000
50% 137,500
40% 165,000
30% 192,500
20% 220,000
10% 247,500
The rate at which an EV battery degrades depends on various factors, including usage, temperature, and charging habits. According to studies, the average rate of degradation for EV batteries is around 2-3% per year.
EV batteries’ lifespan is designed to last for many years, often far longer than people expect. Thanks to advancements in lithium-ion technology, most electric vehicle batteries last 15 to 20 years or 200,000+ miles before significant capacity loss occurs. Many batteries continue performing well even beyond that range, depending on usage and maintenance.
To achieve 3-minute charging times, Hyundai is working to bring 400 kW charging to market. By doing so, Hyundai will not only cut EV charging times to match the time it takes to fill up a gas tank, but also provide a longer driving range without using a bigger, more expensive battery.
Many, most? EVs have no transmission.
So the real question is not “how long EV batteries will last” but “how long will the EV battery be useful”. Depending on your driving habits, seems like 50% battery life would start to become a pain and increase range anxiety issues.
I agree. I have a 2019 Tesla Model S. I currently have 162,000 miles on it and the battery warranty expires May 2027. When new, I had a max range of 327 miles; now the max range is 285 or so. Still adequate for road trips, but in another couple of years perhaps not. Particularly in the (Wyoming) winter when the cold drops that range by 30% or so.
I don’t mind the charging stops, I’m not in a hurry. But if I can’t make it to the next Supercharger, the car no longer works for me.
You are correct that they don’t have multi-gear transmissions. Some have CVTs, but many/most have a direct connection to the wheels with a single gear (inside a gear box). It’s still a transmission, just a relatively simple one. Still expensive if you have to do much to it.
It’s a gear reduction unit. Two spinning gears on some bearing, with a small pool of lubricant. No pumps, no hydraulics, no dog gears and synchros and clutch packs and moving shift forks. I think you’re grasping at straws here to say the single speed gear box of an EV is a big maintenance item. It has even less complexity than the differential does and how many people worry about the maintenance of their differential?
I think it is the biggest maintenance item of an EV. But that’s not saying much. EVs are almost maintenance-free. No oil, the transmission is not complex, no spark plugs, etc.
About all you have to do with an EV is change the 12V battery occasionally (just like an ICE), change the shocks occasionally, replace the tires every 5 years or so (most tire places won’t pump you up after 5 years, as my recent visit to Discount Tire revealed), drivetrain lubrication (some of which may be “sealed”), coolant for the battery, brake fluid, and some other minor stuff.
Maintaining an ICE is much more expensive, which is one reason I bought an EV. I didn’t mean to imply they are comparable. Just that any issues with the gear(s) will be expensive on either platform. Apologies for any confusion.
Cars are blackholes for money.
One projection is EVs will have the same manufacturing cost as ICE by 2027.