EV Batteries Become Cheaper & Cheaper

This means EVs become cheaper & replacing a battery pack is cheaper than a IC engine replacement.
https://insideevs.com/news/742022/battery-replacement-costs-fall-cheaper-than-fixing-engine/

  • Climate research firms expect the prices of lithium, a key raw material in an EV battery, to plummet in the coming years.
  • This trend will likely keep second-life batteries in service years after they are first introduced, thanks to technological improvements.
  • Battery replacements are rare. Even then, replacements are poised to cost as much as, or even lower than replacing a combustion engine by 2030.
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But how often do you replace an ICE engine. Most are good for 200K miles these days. You might do rings and valves for more mileage, but most would sell before doing that. Most likely cause of engine replacement is freezing from inadequate antifreeze.

Battery replacement seems more likely as charge capacity of battery slowly declines with age reducing range.

Commercial vehicles might replace ICE engines to extend service life in trucks and buses but not common for personal vehicles. The comparison is not relevant for most of us.

Recent engines from some companies seem increasingly built to last out the lease, and not much more. Engines are increasingly suffering oil consumption issues, due to “friction reduction” strategies to improve gas mileage. Some have a rubber timing belt, running in the engine oil. Replacing the belt is probably eye-wateringly expensive. But, before the service interval, the belt sheds particles of rubber and fiber, which fall into the oil pan. The particles are then sucked in to the oil pickup. Sometimes they are caught by the filter. Sometimes they clog up the screen in the oil pickup, or the oil pump, before they get to the filter, and block oil flow, which does very expensive damage to the engine.

Sometimes, the OEM shows a very minimal maintenance schedule, so they can advertise how little the car costs to maintain. Sube, for instance, has been known to call for a transmission fluid change at 36,000 miles, in Canada and Japan, but claim the fluid is “lifetime” in the US, because it would appeal to cheap plick USians, who will probably trade the car in before the lack of maintenance catches up to the trans.

Steve

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There has been a lot of scaremongering about batteries losing their capacity over time. In reality, the losses are fairly trivial over any reasonable distance.

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Thanks, Tamhas. In time we will know. Perhaps the batteries themselves can be recycled.

Makes a big difference in the market for chemical recycling.

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They call it a “wet timing belt”. Seems to be ridiculously bad design to me. Even the 1980s vintage Honda’s that I regularly changed timing belts for, had the timing belt outside the oil and inside a plastic cover. I’m pretty sure that that design isn’t used in many USA destined cars, probably European and Asian ones.

Ford 3 cylinder engines used in the US market Fiesta, Ecosport, and Escape. Some larger engines have a chain driven camshaft, but a rubber belt driven oil pump.

Steve

Yes, QuantumScape is making progress toward launching a solid-state battery:

  • Partnership with Volkswagen

In July 2024, QuantumScape and Volkswagen’s PowerCo announced a joint agreement to industrialize QuantumScape’s solid-state technology. The agreement allows PowerCo to license and manufacture up to 40 GWh of capacity per year, with the option to expand to 80 GWh.

  • Customer shipments

In March 2024, QuantumScape began customer shipments of Alpha-2 prototype battery cells. The Alpha-2 prototypes are a significant milestone on the roadmap to deliver QSE-5, QuantumScape’s first planned commercial product.

  • Battery tests

QuantumScape’s solid-state cell passed first endurance tests, exceeding industry-standard targets for robustness, charging cycles, and capacity loss.

  • Battery technology

QuantumScape’s solid-state battery technology could address range anxiety and reinvigorate interest in electric vehicles (EVs). The company’s anode-free design reduces manufacturing costs and eliminates the need for a host material like graphite.

QuantumScape’s goal is to make solid-state batteries available to a mass market by the late 2020s.