Probably. But less knowledge about blowing them up. Ukraine is doing a good job of that, as the article I linked indicated. Perhaps I misunderstood him, but it seems he thinks attacking oil is relatively ineffectual. If so, he’s dead wrong.
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Perhaps.
What about the Russian attacks upon Ukrainian infrastructure?
Aren’t those attacks reeking similar loss of production capacity in Ukraine? Causing misery & impacting loss of morale upon the Ukrainian people?
Of course. But only Russia has the power to stop the war. Ukraine has to fight, they don’t have a choice. The war is optional for Russia.
It is clear that Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries has caused a non-trivial drop in production, leading to rising prices and shortages in some cases.
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What McLovin said in his post, but also, and crucially, the Russian infrastructure is vital to the survival of the pipeline and wellhead infrastructure. If the gas and petrol do not flow the whole works mostly clog up and die. Takes a lot of expensive effort and sometimes years to fix. Ukraines simply needs to replace the imports from whereever. Expensive. Winter is cold in both places. But Russia is on the losers end if they do not find a way to block the Ukrainian onslaught.
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Another thing that needs to be mentioned is the Russian oil industry is highly dependent on Western technology/expertise and pretty much always has been. They will likely be able to operate their legacy production for some time, but they will have difficulty with new exploration and ultimately difficulty with refining as well.
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I have been thinking about that. Early on many people thought that Ukraine had no chance against mighty Russia. But Russia lost the Afghan war and America did not fare much better in Vietnam or Afghanistan, nor did China vs. Vietnam. Israel just clobbered five or seven enemy fronts. No one knows how wars will end.
I see three developments,
- US, Europe, and NATO are backing Ukrainian and sanctioning Russia.
- Ukraine is using more up to date military strategies than Russia.
- A new set of world leaders have emerged, Trump, Netanyahu, Orban, Meloni
Then there is the news reporting or more accurately the news massaging. In the old days local newspapers were more dedicated to facts than profits. With capitalist consolidation the pendulum has shifted to profits with little thought to morals. Not a new phenomenon, the old East India Companies had armies and were drug cartels.
The big difference is that Ukraine is fighting for its survival while Russia is fighting for Putin’s survival.
Venezuela’s oil production crashed when they had to rely on Chinese equipment.
The Captain
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First, Ukraine will face a funding crisis as 2025 turns into 2026 and is on course to run out of cash in February unless Belgium lifts its block on an audacious plan to issue a €140 billion reparations loan using immobilized Russian Central Bank assets held in a securities depository based in Brussels. The proposed scheme would see the EU exchange the Russian assets for zero-coupon AAA bonds, with the cash going to Kyiv. Ukraine would only have to repay in the event Moscow agrees to pay Kyiv war reparations.
But as the clock ticks toward a make-or-break EU summit next month, there are few signs of the deadlock being broken between EU officials and the Belgian government, which is worried about legal claims against it and retaliation from Russia. And the problem has only been complicated by Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico announcing last week that he will also oppose using Russian frozen assets to fund Ukraine’s defense spending.
*Without the reparations loan, the EU will be hard-pressed to come up with the funding Ukraine needs, which is even more urgent now that U.S. financial support has been discontinued under President Donald Trump. Without the reparations loan, it seems highly unlikely that member countries will agree instead to borrow the funds on the market. Cash-strapped governments are not keen on the idea of being on the hook to pay the interest. *
A former Ukrainian official, who also was granted the right not to be identified in order to discuss sensitive issues, said he expected Western funding and weapons would continue as Ukraine is “too big to fail.” But Brussels will communicate very strongly behind the scenes its displeasure and tie more tightly some future project funding to reforms.
The second problem is on the battlefield, where Ukraine is coming under increasing pressure from Russian forces and on the brink of losing the town of Pokrovsk, an important logistical and transport hub where fighting has been raging for more than a year.
*The battle for Pokrovsk has again highlighted Ukraine’s severe manpower shortage. In some sections of the front line, Russia enjoys a 10-to-1 manpower advantage. In the countryside, that isn’t such a problem as drones and remote-controlled systems dominate the battlefield. But when engagements involve close-quarter combat in urban settings, as in Pokrovsk, the Russians have an advantage. *
*Aside from worries over funding and what’s happening on the battlefield, there’s the third big challenge of the winter — the energy war. *
*This time round, though, the Russian attacks are of much greater magnitude and the Ukrainians don’t have the air defenses to cope, nor are they likely to get them soon. On top of that, Russia has adjusted its tactics by targeting not only the power grid but also Ukraine’s natural gas infrastructure. Sixty percent of Ukrainians rely on natural gas to keep their homes warm. *
Former Energy Minister Olga Bohuslavets has warned: “It is already clear that this winter will be much harder than all previous ones.”
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