I had a long conversation with AI about this war today. We looked at it from the stand points of money, manpower, and international politics.
As it stands, Russia and Ukraine have about the same cash going into the war. At first blush it looks like Russia is spending more, but Russia has to spend money to defend its other interests. Since Russia gets money from oil the Ukrainian destruction of oil infrastructure is a valid strategic target. They would have already hampered the Russian war funding if Iran had not been bombed and the Straight closed. Even with that windfall, at the current rate of destruction Russia will have money problems within a year or a year and a half.
Ukraine is basically supported by Europe. The Ukrainian funding is subject to political will. Russia has been attacking this since the beginning of the war, and has had some luck with the USA but not with Europe. The next big chance for this funding to be cut off is after major elections in Europe. This is more than 18 stop months away.
So for the next year or a year and half, there is unlikely to be a change in the balance of power in the war as it relates to funding.
Manpower is the next thing. At current or likely rates of losses in both sides Russia will run out of manpower in 11 months, Ukraine in 12. Essentially the war will end i a year when there is no one left to fight. But no one wins when everyone is dead.
We already mentioned international politics. It is likely to stay static and even the Iran war is unlikely to change that.
The one wild card that we were not able to nail down was the rapid advances in weapons. Both sides are creating weapons quickly. However, it seems to me that Ukraine is better at this and that Russia might have supply issues with parts coming from Iran. Even so, the weapons advances by the Ukrainians would have to quick enough and deployed well enough to wipe out enough oil infrastructure to defund the Russianâs ability to wage war, and that would be done over the cries from Europe due to fears Europe will freeze in the dark. (Valid Concern) They could deploy weapons that would raise the death toll above modeled expectations and literally bleed the Russians out sooner than expected.
In any case, it looks like this war may end or become quiescent in 11 or 12 months no matter what happens. It is unlikely that Russia could win, and there is a slight chance that Ukraine through advanced technology could force the Russians out before the Ukrainians run out of men.
There is one chance the Russians could win, that is by successfully convincing the Europeans to quit funding the war. A collapsing economy due to energy shortages might help with that.
I am with the Chinese on this. Quit fighting already so I can build a road through here and sell more stuff.
No cheers for human suffering
Qazulight
not in hopes 