The ICE muscle car is dead?

Long live the EV muscle car?

https://apnews.com/article/technology-electric-vehicles-pont…
Thundering gas-powered muscle cars, for decades a fixture of American culture, will be closing in on their final Saturday-night cruises in the coming years as automakers begin replacing them with super-fast cars that run on batteries.

Stellantis’ Dodge brand, long the performance flag-bearer of the company formerly known as Fiat Chrysler, is officially moving toward electricity. On Wednesday night, Dodge unveiled a battery-powered Charger Daytona SRT concept car, which is close to one that will be produced in 2024 as the sun sets on some petroleum models.

Stellantis says it will stop making gasoline versions of the Dodge Challenger and Charger muscle cars and the Chrysler 300 large car by the end of next year. The Canadian factory that makes them will be converted to electric vehicles. Other automakers are moving — or have moved — in the same direction.

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I’ve said it before, and as I prepare to take my 2018 Accord with a 2.0L Turbo and 10-speed automatic in for “Schedule B” service in 2 days, I think that this move to EV is as much about regulations and the environment as it is about the utter complexity of the modern ICE and transmission. I think the manufacturers are saying “this is gone too far, just how much more complexity can we put into these things?”. But a battery pack, an induction motor, and a gear reducer (what they call the 1-speed transmission), and bam. You’re done.

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Looked up the 0-60 times. The v-8 Challenger is posting 6.8 seconds. I think there is a factory limited edition that does better.

The slowest Tesla was 5.5 seconds. In other words, the fastest Dodge muscle car can almost keep up with Mom in her Cross Over Suv from Tesla.

It is pretty simple. Electric cars are faster. At the top end, the Porche 911 GTS is competitive with the Tesla model S plaid. The Model S clocks in at 2.1 seconds and Porche 911 GTS at 2.7 seconds. The Tesla does it with 4 doors a luxury throughout, and it does it for 130 k vs 170 k for the Porche.

What is more, the cost and weight of the Tesla drive train is still dropping. The muscle cars simply can no longer compete. I mean how bad is it when Mom and the kids can take you light to light in a 2 year old SUV? (The 2020 Model X is faster that the 911 GTS 0-60)

Best I can tell from the manufacturing innovation happening at Tesla that none of the other car companies will be able to compete on price or performance.

The question I am asking myself, So why do you hold no Tesla shares”

Cheers
Qazulight

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It is pretty simple. Electric cars are faster.

If I’m not mistaken electric motors deliver more torque at any speed while ICE engines need to rev up first.

How Do Electric Vehicles Produce Instant Torque?

Electric cars are renowned for their instant torque deliveries which lead to ferocious acceleration off the line. How do they produce this immediate torque and why can’t good old internal combustion get close?

https://www.carthrottle.com/post/how-do-electric-vehicles-pr…

The Captain

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With all the auto makers moving to EVs I am not sure why I would want to buy TSLA shares. Do they have a secret sauce I am not aware of?

With all the auto makers moving to EVs I am not sure why I would want to buy TSLA shares. Do they have a secret sauce I am not aware of?

Yes. Their manufacturing is at least a generation ahead of everyone else. Their drive train engineering is more advanced than anyone else, and the battery factories as well as the batteries are a half a generation ahead of everyone else.

The amount of on the road real time data that Tesla has collected is unmatched. While telecom companies have data lakes of data, Tesla has oceans of data. The data is so high that the surprise is that Tesla doesn’t have full self driving capability with a psychoanalysis option.

Cheers
Qazulight

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The data is so high that the surprise is that Tesla doesn’t have full self driving capability with a psychoanalysis option.

I’m just surprised we don’t have FSD, yet. At all. I was told to expect it years ago (not just by Elon mind you, but by people I know who have inside knowledge industry wide about this). I think FSD has proven much more difficult than originally thought. In some ways I’m not surprised. Highway driving much simpler than city. Self driving farm equipment, ditto. Driving a dump truck at a mine, same (see: Caterpillar).

For some reason the industry picked the hardest goal, and one with the lowest demand, to tackle first. Odd.

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While Tesla undoubtably has the largest data set, another company who has a wide set, but with more "texture than Tesla’s is Google (Alphabet). By combining the information available from Google Maps, Waze and satellite imagery with their Waymo (https://waymo.com/) autonomous driving project, their AI can provide a high level of optimal routing. They claim to have combined over 20 billion miles of physical and “simulated” driving into their current model. I’m guessing they will initially concentrate on the drive-hailing and commercial truck applications before hitting the retail market.

Jeff

For some reason the industry picked the hardest goal, and one with the lowest demand, to tackle first. Odd.

I suspect it’s because the industry thinks that the demand for a fully autonomous car would be extremely high, and thus that there are enormous profits to be made. There’s about 275 million light vehicles (passenger vehicles) in the U.S. - many more globally. That’s a huge market. If you could design a fully autonomous vehicle, that could be insanely valuable.

That said, I don’t think “the industry” is really tackling the hardest goal first. Only Tesla (AFAIK) is all-in on designing autonomy systems entirely focused on privately owned consumer passenger vehicles. Most of the others are looking to geo-fenced map-assisted TaaS commercial services - corporately owned robo-taxis - as an intermediate step.

Albaby

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Thanks. I am not sure how long a generation lead is in this area.

The tech of FSD may be the easy issue to deal with. The legal and insurance questions may be the really difficult and time consuming problem. It looks to be a war between competing industries lobbyists.

qazulight wrote: “Looked up the 0-60 times. The v-8 Challenger is posting 6.8 seconds. I think there is a factory limited edition that does better.”

Not sure where you’re getting your info, but that seems to be wrong. According to Motor Trend, the Challenger ranges from 6 sec 0-60mph for the V-6, to 5 sec 0-60 for the regular V-8 all the way down to 3.9 sec 0-60 for the Challenger SRT Hellcat. There are some limited versions that go even faster.

https://www.motortrend.com/cars/dodge/challenger/

And while these 0-60 times are bested by the some Teslas, the top-end speeds tend to do better, and the prices start at $30k for a V-6 version, $38k for a V-8, which is still way less than the low end Teslas.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t think of buying a Dodge muscle car, while I’d love a Tesla. But, we should base our criticisms on correct info, there’s a sizable difference between 6.8 sec 0-60 and 5 sec 0-60 for a v-8 Challenger.

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The tech of FSD may be the easy issue to deal with. The legal and insurance questions may be the really difficult and time consuming problem.

This gets raised a lot in these discussions. I just don’t understand why people think this is true.

It’s not like automobile defects, fleet vehicles, borrowed/rented cars, or defective roadway conditions don’t exist today. It’s not novel for a lawsuit or insurance claim to involve a question about whether an accident was caused by driver error or some aspect of the vehicle the driver didn’t have control over - and thus who should bear the cost of the accident. Those things go through the process (adjustment of the claim and/or litigation) and liability gets assigned.

If there’s an accident involving an autonomous vehicle, you’ll almost certainly get the same result. If the accident was caused by the AV, then liability will be apportioned to the maker of the AV or the driver of the AV (or among them both) depending on who was responsible for the accident, as is determined by whoever is adjudicating the claim. You might see laws specifically adopted to simplify that (such as a rebuttable presumption that where the autonomy feature is active and engaged, that the entity that manufactured the AV is responsible) - but even if you don’t, this isn’t that big a deal.

Albaby

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Thanks. I am not sure how long a generation lead is in this area.

Best I can tell, (Read: Best guesstimate from watching battery development for 15 years) is batteries generation is about 3 years. Maybe 4. Tesla is having a hard time with its new cells and while the newest solid state cells are in beta production, and the plants are being built, it will take a while to scale up.

Also, the generation time on body innovation at Tesla is not in step with battery development. I have not seen enough data to even guess what the period is. Worse, even if I did, the period is impacted by the demands of other development activities, like battery, robot, and factory. On the other hand, the development of bodies is significant and the interviews and presentations I have seen point toward much much better cars a much lower prices than incumbents.

I have not seen videos on FSD, infotainment systems or that much on drive trains, although what little I have seen tangentially, indicates that there is a lot going on in these areas also.

I am not sure I would be happy with Tesla’s infotainment system. I am pretty much sold on Apple Car play, but we will see how it works out in a few years.

Cheers
Qazulight

Do they have a secret sauce I am not aware of?

Yes but it is secret and only the initiated get to know it under oath of secrecy!

But there is a public sauce.

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp…

The most interesting part of that chart is the second half of 2019, that’s when I believe the EV technology “Crossed the Chasm.” I hope I didn’t give away the secret sauce.

The Captain
started buying in October 2020 after watching Tesla’s “Battery Day.”

With all the auto makers moving to EVs I am not sure why I would want to buy TSLA shares.

Volume, Tesla has it, the rest don’t. Tesla only has four models, the rest have about a hundred, hard to build volume with so much diversity.

Now I know I’m in trouble! What one is willing to sacrifice for Fools and Friends.

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I am not sure how long a generation lead is in this area.

I’d take that lead in manufacturing comment with a large dose of salt.

All of the big automakers (Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Fiat, Tata, Jaguar, to name quite a few) have way more experience manufacturing cars than Tesla does. Yes, Tesla’s manufacturing facilities are likely a bit more advanced in terms of robotics and other technologies, but that doesn’t necessarily make them better. Production quality at Tesla is notoriously mixed. They might have more advanced technology in their plants, but they don’t yet know how to take advantage of that advanced technology to make better or cheaper cars. They might get there. They might not.

–Peter

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By combining the information available from Google Maps, Waze and satellite imagery with their Waymo (https://waymo.com/) autonomous driving project, their AI can provide a high level of optimal routing.

The downside of maps is the unreliability, the world changes faster than humanity can update maps. Imagine a sudden sinkhole, how long before it appears on Google Maps. Not too long ago I reported a store (Chinese food market) that had closed a long time ago.

The Captain
lesson learned from nautical charts, even the magnetic north keeps on creeping

All of the big automakers (Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Fiat, Tata, Jaguar, to name quite a few) have way more experience manufacturing cars than Tesla does.

In frames, stamping body panels, final assembly, yup. I think Denny is more concerned with the parts of the EV that are not shared with an ICE car. Induction motors, battery packs, motor control, charging control, etc. Motor control alone can have a big impact on performance, on battery life, etc.

One other thing to mention about EV vs. muscle car. Driving an EV has the throttle response that will rival pure-bred race engines. Its not just that the ICE needs to rev to produce power. Open the throttle always causes a lag in output, even in the best engines. When you open the throttle blades it WILL cause a brief drop in intake manifold air velocity until the engine catches up. With an EV extra power delivery happens AS YOU ARE MASHING THE THROTTLE DOWN, NOT A BRIEF PAUSE LATER. It really is a neat experience.

Bill
I tracked a 1992 Corvette (LT-1 6-speed) for 3 years, a Honda S2000 twice, and raced shifter karts for 4 years

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In frames, stamping body panels, final assembly, yup.

Actually nope. More experience, to be sure, but it is Tesla that is doing the innovation in the actual manufacturing process. Way ahead.

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I think Denny is more concerned with the parts of the EV that are not shared with an ICE car. Induction motors, battery packs, motor control, charging control, etc. Motor control alone can have a big impact on performance, on battery life, etc.

But those things - except for batteries and their charging - have also been manufactured for decades. I doubt Tesla knows more about manufacturing those than many electronics manufacturers. They probably have a bit of an edge in batteries - I have to grant that. Battery tech is changing rapidly and that is one area where Tesla is indeed on the forefront. But having an advantage in batteries is not the same as having an advantage in manufacturing of the entire car.

–Peter