The next big thing

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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i have been posting here about batteries and the nanotechnology that is driving the improvements in battery technology. I have mentioned a few times about the tools that have been developed to work with nano technology that drives battery development.

This is awesome. But batteries are no longer the next big thing. The best I can tell, a modern li-ion battery factory is about 1.25 billion. Mercedes has six on the drawing board, Toyota has one and Tesla has several about to be in production. Tesla has about 2.5 percent of the U.S. automotive market and maybe 5 battery factories. Of course Tesla sources some of its batteries from Panasonic and CATL so the numbers are not exact, but a WAG is that the world needs about 200 battery factories to produce enough batteries to switch to all EV production. So roughly a 250 billion dollar investment over 10 years. While bankers and politicians can wipe out ten times that amount with stupid choices, 250 in investments is a big deal and it is the big thing. (5 years may be possible as the engineering is done, so it is a matter of permitting and building)

So . . . What is the next big thing?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/09/220912132323.h…

Scientists at Sandia National Laboratories and the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Light have reported on a device that could replace a roomful of equipment to link photons in a bizarre quantum effect called entanglement. This device – a kind of nano-engineered material called a metasurface – paves the way for entangling photons in complex ways that have not been possible with compact technologies.

“It is quite complicated and kind of intractable when this multi-entanglement needs more than two or three pairs,” Brener said. “These nonlinear metasurfaces essentially achieve this task in one sample when before it would have required incredibly complex optical setups.”

The following quote is what me think of the batteries. The tools that were developed to see and manipulate the inside of cathodes and anodes, particularly in the search for the solution to the dendrite problem.

“The work was challenging as it required precise nanofabrication technology to obtain the sharp, narrowband optical resonances that seeds the quantum process of the work,” said Sylvain Gennaro, a former postdoctoral researcher at Sandia who worked on several aspects of the project.

It seems that a meta surface like this will open up a lot of avenues in quantum science.

https://news.yahoo.com/quantum-battery-breakthrough-paves-wa…

Researchers have made significant progress towards making quantum batteries a reality after demonstrating a new proof-of-concept device.

The next-generation battery technology has the potential to revolutionise energy storage by making use of a phenomenon known as superabsorption.

This process involves a quantum mechanical principle relating to a molecule’s ability to absorb light, requiring less charging time the more they become entwined.

While the above news release may be hype based on “quantum” and “meta” it does indicate that there is research in this direction. However, even if the new meta material can enhance the production of quantum batteries that would only be a small facet of the new world that the science would usher it.

In my opinion, all previous advances in the various lines of invention will appear totally insignificant when compared with those which the present century will witness. I almost wish that I might live my life over again to see the wonders which are at the threshold.

Charles Holland Duell

If there we anything to keep me on this planet for more than a minute past my allotted time, it would be this sentiment.

Cheers
Qazulight

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In my opinion, all previous advances in the various lines of invention will appear totally insignificant when compared with those which the present century will witness. I almost wish that I might live my life over again to see the wonders which are at the threshold.

Sure but on the other hand it looks like the quality of life improvement from these things will be outweighed by our trashing the planet … more and more people want more and more … while the earth’s carrying capacity is already way overused …

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so the numbers are not exact, but a WAG is that the world needs about 200 battery factories to produce enough batteries to switch to all EV production. So roughly a 250 billion dollar investment over 10 years. While bankers and politicians can wipe out ten times that amount with stupid choices, 250 in investments is a big deal and it is the big thing. (5 years may be possible as the engineering is done, so it is a matter of permitting and building)

Just a rough estimate on the investments in semiconductor Fabs. (see link and quote below)
Depending on how you count, 19 to 29 new Fabs started this year. The most expensive cost about $10B each (spent over a couple of years). Of course more new Fabs will be started next year.
The industry can support this because there is consumer demand for the products they are used in.

US government aid is new this year, of course. But all or nearly all of these Fabs would likely have been built anyway, just elsewhere.
The 10 year sum total of chip investment is far greater than what is needed for battery supplies. This doesn’t make it a trivial amount, but shows that the capital is available when there are products being sold.

Mike

https://www.semi.org/en/news-media-press/semi-press-releases…

Semiconductor manufacturers worldwide will have started construction on 19 new high-volume fabs by the end of this year and break ground on another 10 in 2022 to meet accelerating demand for chips across a wide range of markets including communications, computing, healthcare, online services and automotive, SEMI highlighted today in its quarterly World Fab Forecast report.

SEMI logo“Equipment spending for these 29 fabs is expected to surpass $140 billion over the next few years as the industry pushes to address the global chip shortage,” said Ajit Manocha,

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This is awesome. But batteries are no longer the next big thing.

Quantum, schmantum. The way through the wilderness is more basics, not more high falutin science that nobody understands.

I give you “sand batteries”. They store energy for months from intermittent generation sources such as wind, solar, geothermal. They are simple to make: a housing of metal, filled with pipes and valves as are available anywhere in the world, and then loaded with, yes, sand. Sand, I point out, is available almost everywhere on the planet; it is cheap, and a sand battery works with almost any kind, fine or coarse grain, or heck, it doesn’t even have to be sand!

The sand is heated to 600 degrees Celsius (over 1,000 Fahrenheit) and then … you let it sit. You pull the heat out for direct heating of homes or factories, or you use the heat the generate electricity for cooling or other uses as you need.

Available in huge sizes or individual for homes, “sand batteries”. The next big thing. One thing: nobody gets rich from them, so, you know, total failure.

https://polarnightenergy.fi/sand-battery

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Sand batteries… dirt cheap. Brilliant idea.

Sand is cheap and just laying around.

The system would last 50 years before you had to change out the pipes.

The only moving part is a cheap fan.

Yeah, this will never work.

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Goofyhoofy,

I always thought a Stirling cycle engine connected to a wind mill would be useful for a scheme like this. You would have two reservoirs of heat. One would be hot, the other cold. (If you input mechanical power into a Stirling engine
you get hot and cold outputs, these can be biased based on the environment so you
would store cold in the winter and heat in the summer.)

A man in Fairbanks used a simular principle with a 400 gallon tank of hot water and solar heat collectors. He was able to only use a cord of wood to heat his house through the very long and very cold Fairbanks winter.

Still, just seems hard.

Cheers
Qazulight

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