His flagship policy, carbon pricing, was applauded by climate activists but proved deeply polarizing. While the Supreme Court of Canada upheld the policy in 2021, it remained a thorn in the side of several provinces, notably oil-rich Alberta. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre — who grew up in Calgary, Alberta — has vowed to dismantle it if he’s elected. The policy aims to hike the baseline price for carbon to C$170 ($118) per metric ton by 2030, providing a rising disincentive for emitters.
Trudeau’s government also offered various incentives to produce clean energy, including investment tax credits. These were also made available for carbon capture and storage, a bone thrown to the oil and gas sector.
But executing these policies has come in fits and starts, and Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions are falling far slower than needed to achieve the country’s 2030 target of a 45% to 50% drop from 2005 levels. A preliminary report released in December, covering sectors representing most of the economy, showed emissions fell 8.5% between 2005 and 2023, progress that leaves a lot of distance uncovered.
The country’s geography works against it. Goods need to be transported vast distances, temperatures are extreme and the comparatively small population has a disproportionately big carbon footprint. Canada produced 19.4 metric tons of CO2 equivalent per capita in 2023, more than the US, Russia or China. Factor in the emissions generated outside Canada, when the fuel imported from its oil sands is burned by more populous countries, and its impact on the planet gets even worse.
On the other hand, the country’s abundant forests absorb carbon — at least when they’re not on fire. The 2023 Canada wildfires that burned an area larger than England released 640 million metric tons of carbon along the way, according to a study by NASA. Similarly, Canada’s vast Arctic also acts as a shield against climate change, though that too is being undermined as reflective ice melts, thawing permafrost releases sequestered CO2 and northern wildfires become more prevalent.