Are you a scientist?
The Captain
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It still covers the first two decades of this century during which the world was warming. Despite the warming there was a) no significant trend in global precipitation and b) a decrease in intensity with small and medium storms.
It’s a bit of a puzzler, but the state of precipitation modeling is rather dismal.
DB2
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As to what causes what regarding theoretical GCC and specific ongoing events, statistically we are and will for some time to come (forever?) be in a gray zone of remaining uncertainty, well duh!, so BS on both sides of this discussion, and you all know better, do you not?
I know so, and so I am unhappy with you all.
BUT,
what ought to matter to sapient creatures such as ourselves dealing with such issues, instead of self-assured self-righteous proclamation
(hmmm, flyerboys takes a moment for self-reflection here)
IS
the ancient shy homely virtue named
and, you know, coming down from Heavenly prudentia to mortal Earth, this means grubbily balancing odds of future potential pay-offs and costs being incurred, and especially weighting heavily in favor of NOT unnecessarily*** burdening your progeny and the future of your species through sloth, desire unbridled by reason (the exact original definition of the seven deadly sins), and profligacy!!!
Done shouting for the day.
I am going to skip church tomorrow (went yesterday to celebrate All Saints and All Souls, both intensely important for both the Mallorcan and Mexican cultures I live in) and instead go to a potluck feast with free spirits high in the mountains of Mallorca overlooking the whole of creation, land sea sky sun wind clouds and humanity.
d fb
***necessity for humans requires reflection upon and regard for consequences, and so see
Also see as directly relevant
for sloth
for desire
and for profligacy
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David, it is important to know the past, what we have seen. It effects our projections of what we may see in the future (and is more reliable). If we are in a gray zone of uncertainty then the claims that the weather we’ve seen is a sign of terrible things to come are not supported.
Nguyen used 33 years of satellite data to see what we’ve experienced during this period of warming. In the conclusion we read:
“The take-home message from our study using the new 33+ years of high-resolution global precipitation dataset is that there seems not to be any detectable and significant positive trends in the amount of global precipitation due to the now well-established increasing global temperature.”
DB2
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Given that there is only so much total water, one might expect some balancing, although, of course, warmer air can hold more water. But, I thought the main point at this stage is more extreme weather, both wetter in some places and drier in others.
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The crux are not statistically plausible but uncertain greater extremes, but rather the simple fact of changing patterns that we are seeing. Why does non-catastrophic change matter?; because humans have made enormous monetary, social and (dare I say) spiritual investments so as to live in specific and difficult and costly to shift specific locations.
Those investments are being undone.
d fb
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Interestingly, it seems that the “wet get wetter and the dry gets drier” pattern holds over the ocean but not on land.
Greve looked at precipitation changes since 1948. Over three-quarters of the land show no changes. Only 11% of the global land area shows a robust ‘dry gets drier, wet gets wetter’ pattern, compared to 10% of global land area with the opposite pattern (dry gets wetter, and wet gets drier).
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2247
DB2
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Do you have a link that is not behind a pay wall?
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The 10 deadliest weather disasters since 2004, including three tropical cyclones, four heatwaves, two floods and a drought, killed at least 570,000 people, and a new study shows how all of them were intensified by global warming, “caused by the burning of oil, gas and coal and deforestation.”
In a press briefing on the new study, by World Weather Attribution, an international research group, the authors emphasized that the total death toll is a major underestimate. Many heat-related deaths, possibly running into the millions, are not reported officially and don’t show up in the International Disaster Database, especially in poorer countries that are most vulnerable to high temperatures.
The deadliest single climate event in the official global record was a 2011 drought in Somalia that killed at least 258,000 people, and the report found that human-caused warming intensified the drought with disrupted rainfall patterns and warmer temperatures that evaporate more moisture from the soil.
In 2008, Cyclone Nargis killed more than 138,000 people in southern Myanmar. The new study found that global warming intensified the storm’s wind speed by 18 percent, and that the warm ocean temperatures that boosted Nargis’s rainfall were made 47 percent more likely by warming.
In the case of the 2023 European heatwave that killed more than 37,000 people, the research showed that some of the regional peak temperatures in the western Mediterranean region would have been impossible without global warming, and were made 1,000 times more likely across Southern Europe.
Beyond the heatwaves: 2023 has been a year of worldwide flooding disasters
This article contains a list of flooding disasters which have occurred in 2023 and late 2022, up until the last noted update of this article. The list may not be complete - contact us if you have more info.
We have not yet seen a scientific or statistical comparison of the amount of flooding disasters for 2023 as opposed to previous years. This is only an editorial observation of the frequent reporting of flooding disasters which have made it into the world media.
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This study is over 10 years old and does not capture the significant changes in the effects of flooding on humans around the world in the last 10 years. Climate scientists blame these massive historic floods in some areas of the earth on global warming (glaciers melting, polar regions melting, ocean/sea water getting hotter, atmosphere getting hotter).
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But you forgot to add: c) an increase in intensity with large storms.
That is the whole point of why we see these massive floods in some areas of the earth.
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A link to which article?
DB2
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“The large-size precipitation systems exhibit nonsignificant increasing trends…”
And for those who are visually oriented, look at the number of tropical cyclones/hurricanes:
And here is the graph for global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE):
DB2
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The one in Nature.
and extra typing to make 20
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Was prudence responsible for the Food Pyramid that made us obese and sick?
Prudence works best when the outcome is knowable. When not, call it Dogma.
a principle or set of principles laid down by an authority as incontrovertibly true.
The Captain
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This link to the pdf should do the trick:
DB2
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There is more to rain than water. The same amount of water can have beneficial or harmful effects depending on the surface it falls on. Much of conservation depends on controlling the flow of water over land.
- Slow water will seep into the ground and build the water table
- Fast water will erode and destroy
Israel invented drip irrigation, “Sloth-speed” water
The Captain
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Captain, yes, uncertainty regarding knowledge is the nub of the issue. An example of Dogma is “Never mind, the free market will take care of it.” Free markets are remarkable and have crux uses, but so is dynamite.
I have not seen recent reasoned significant criticism of the now quite solid hypothesis of a link between releases of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere and increases in atmospheric temperatures. That is enough for me to make some sacrifices of time and thought to scowling goddess Prudentia. That is not a dogmatic response.
d fb
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Thanks. That is exactly what I wanted.
I am not qualified to comment on their methodology or analysis. I did a search through the paper and found no references to arable land or farming. Since that is where changes in wetness and dryness would have dramatic implications for those of us who eat food, it seems like a big omission. The only mention of “agriculture” or any variant of “desert” are in articles in the paper’s footnotes. I wonder what other studies have been done in the 10 years since that paper was published looking at changes in soil moisture levels of arable land.
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A good question. Just looking at the IPCC ‘time to emergence’ chart upthread, one of the categories is “Agricultural and ecological drought”. It indicates no emergence of a trend by the end of the century even for a high emission scenario.
DB2
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