Two things: 1: China has one of the lowest car ownership figures in the world, so they will sell lots more cars going forward, assuming their economy doesn’t crater. (They have 220 vehicles per 1,000 households, roughly on par with Belize and Mongolia).
2: 2/3 of the cars sold in China last year were gas powered. Slightly more than 2/3, actually, (69%) so there are more gas cars operating in China this year than last year, and it is a safe assumption that there will be more gas cars in China next year than this year.
Yes, the tide is turning, and China, like several nations, has announced that gas cars will be phased out by 2035 (one province did so briefly last year, but rescinded), but in the meantime gas volumes will continue to increase before they peak several years from now.
I did some research after I made my statements but did not have time to get in here with better ideas.
I am wrong on two fronts. China is doing well right now. The pandemic is over. The other thing China is using more gasoline for cars.
And more importantly oil demand is rising with China making up a good part of the new demand.
Global oil demand is due to rise by almost 2 million barrels a day (b/d) in 2024, with China accounting for over 25% of that increase according to a report by Wood Mackenzie.3 days ago
How that fairs this spring I might be right it could be softer than usual. But not by much. EV is making inroads but not yet truly curbing oil demand. It is too early to make that call. The call is being put off again towards 2026.
I recently heard that NEV (new energy vehicles) adoption in China is up to 40% and they are not replacing NEV but ICE vehicles. China has some very stringent rules pushing buyers to NEV over ICE. More effective than Cash for Clinkers.
Average worldwide costs of shipping a 40-foot container rose 23% in the week through Jan. 18 to $3,777, according to London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants, more than doubling in the past month.
The increases are being felt far beyond the disrupted trade routes that link China with Europe and the U.S. East Coast. Spot-market rates to ship a container from China to Los Angeles rose 38% in the week through Jan. 18 to $3,860.
Experts say it costs shippers an additional $1 million each way and nine to 12 more days at sea each way to travel the longer route around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. That compares with $1 million to $1.5 million more for insurance to transit the Red Sea right now.
