The Trade Desk open discussion

Hello all!

I was able to go through TTD’s 10Q & transcript and put together a review. I wanted to post the link & offer a few highlights from Jeff Green to get the discussion rolling. Please let me know if you saw any negatives in the report as I tend to be very optimistic with this company.


Highlight 1)

  • “No material supply chain impact”! With companies like Snap and Facebook claiming supply chain issues are presenting a real demand headwind, I found this encouraging. There was worry that supply chain issues would make advertisers more hesitant to advertise inventory they didn’t actually have in their grasp. This didn’t come to fruition as a challenge for TTD.

Highlight 2)

  • “No material IDFA impact”! Jeff Green had been telling us this would be the case but it’s nice to hear that confirmed after ad-tech spent a quarter telling us how difficult the change has been for them. TTD’s first party data treasure chest thanks to its vast partner network & its channel diversification are both insulating them quite nicely.

Highlight 3)

  • “Dozens of other retailers are talking with TTD” about implementing a DSP similar to what Walmart recently debuted. “Walmart was just the first.”
    Home Depot should be going love in the coming quarters. Thank you Solimar!
    Highlight 4)

  • The company posted its higher Q3 growth rate since 2018! This is even without considering the impact of political spend in 2020 on this YoY comp. This meshes extremely well with its margin profile. 40X sales is far more palatable with a 40% EBITDA margin & 25% net income margin.


Hi Responsibul

Thanks for boiling this down to the key highlights…

As a long time TTD holder sitting on a 1000% gain overall and enjoying a week that included a quadruple spiffy pop on my first tranche and almost a double spiffy pop overall, I actually find TTD under appreciated on this board. It is one of those rare classics along with Shopify that keeps on producing the share price gains both at scale and at more mature growth rates.

I think you have nailed the salient points.

The only additions/qualifications I would make would be:


Highlight 4) - yes, stunning YoY growth rate when you factor political spend in Q3 2020 out of the equation which ups the like for like growth from 39% to 47%, however they did not factor out the one time benefit of Q3 2021 being an Olympic year and I don’t know what that might have contributed.


Highlight 5) - Solimar is one of their most successful launches ever and not just adds a whole new TAM with programatic ad campaign planning/management but gives them a super strong moat with their existing business.

Highlight 6) - UID2 seems to have reached an industry standard level of acceptance outside the walled gardens.

Highlight 7) - CTV has arrived. Apparently CTV and mobile is now 40% of the business. The CTV growth rates continued to be market busting and have reached critical scale.

TTD sits at a 9% holding for me, a position in which I have total confidence and conviction.

Despite being stunningly profitable, this is still only a $45bn market cap company with one of the world’s largest TAMs to play in. If TTD get this right, the advertising industry continues to be converted to programmatic digital format and Solimar opens up a sizeable TAM extension, then we are talking a $1 trillion opportunity. Throw in the scenario of a successful adoption of UID2 and the opening up of walled gardens for one reason or another, then I can see this company very easily achieving a 10x from here.

47% like for like growth might not be hyper growth enough for many around here, but the operating leverage, fundamental profitability and remaining runway make this a cornerstone investment choice for me even when faster growers appear to be hitting the buffers as they reach the $50bn valuation levels.