Accept that the remarkable post WWII attempt to build a world wide system of reasonably fair and open trade backed by international treaties and assitance in health, education, and development is now DEAD, and seek to re-assemble a set of allies that seeks to unite to make another go at peace and other great goods together while isolating those who will not play with us, leaving them to probably drown in totalitarian incompetence. Work HARD to rebuild trust with and within Americas, especially Mexico, Caribbean, and Canada, but also as much of South America as is tactically affordable and advantageous, while the same with Europe from Ukraine, the Baltics, conceivably Belorussia, and to the West.
Pray and work for peace and sanity in the long long long run.
There’s a guy on YouTube named Perun. He’s a defense economics expert (gets invited to conferences and such, has contacts in defense departments all over the globe). He produces about 1 video a week. Deep dives on a topic.
He’s covered this extensively. Russia cannot sustain this much longer. Their boneyards have been picked clean, even equipment from WWII. Pretty much all scavenged for parts (e.g. barrels), or fielded in battle (even as old at T-62s, which are older than I am). Ukraine is inflicting more casualties, at least in part because it’s harder to attack entrenched defenses.
I have no personal interest, but I highly recommend Perun’s channel if you’re interested in deep dives on this. And he also covers economics (for example, the Iran war has increased Putin’s oil revenues).
250 men in position to attack on each side. Woops to defend 50 men. That is 200 fewer targets for the drones. That is just in one small sector. Multiply the number of sectors.
You only need a fraction of the people to defend compared to attack. Attackers have to deal with mines, various fortifications and obstacles, and protected firing positions. Both sides have drones.
The primary reason the Russians are suffering more battlefield casualties is that it takes a lot more people (and equipment) to attack a fortified position. You expect more losses. Air superiority would mostly nullify that, but the Russians don’t really have that. They have to stand off far away or risk being shot down.
At some point, the Russian people will tire of getting loved ones home in body bags, and the economy that is on life support, and Putin will have to do something. Either crack down, or -more likely- find a face saving way to go home.
Another interesting stat on that topic is the claim by Alexander Stubb, President of Finland, that the kill rate had risen from 3:1 (3 Russians killed to every 1 Ukrainian), to 8:1. IF that number is accurate and IF it is sustainable, Ukraine is doing what I thought was impossible - holding its own in a war of attrition against a country with 6 times more people.
Another interesting read on “drone Keynesianism” and how roughly 500 startups in Ukraine are reinventing drone technology daily. One example: $117,000 dollars worth of drones blew up about $5B worth of Russian airplanes. How Ukraine Became a Drone Superpower
This article also gave me insight into the production side of asymmetric warfare. Russia, like the U.S., depends on massive billion dollar corporations to build massive, expensive munitions that take years to replace. Smaller countries, like Ukraine, when fighting for their existence, are building, and literally redesigning, and mass producing their munitions daily.