Thinking about farms, agriculture

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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I’ve been in FPI on occasion over the last 6-7 years, including now. I bought it last in early March at $13.30. Its now $14.39. Not much that I own is up since then. I have 4.5% of my IRA invested here.

The war in Ukraine is impacting food supplies. India is banning food exports. California is going through a drought. Bill Gates is the largest farm owner in the USA. All this makes me wonder if I should diversify and expand beyond Farmland Partners (FPI). So I started looking at some other names. Here is what I’ve come up with so far. I listed them in order based on YTD performance. It seems I did not choose the best from the start. :smiley:


Ticker  Name              YTD     30-Day  7-Day
MOS     Mosaic Company    62.1%  -16.0%   10.4%
NTR     Nutrien Co        45.1%   -9.0%    7.3%
AGRO    Adecoagro         42.4%  -16.7%   10.6%
CRESY   Cresud            39.6%  -28.1%    9.9%
ADM     Archer-Daniels..  28.2%   -8.1%    5.1%
BG      Bunge Limited     23.2%   -8.1%    6.1%
FPI     Farmland Partners 21.1%   -1.2%   -1.4%
SOYB    Soybean Fund      20.5%   -0.8%    3.1%
AGCO    AGCO Corp          3.9%  -10.1%    7.5%
MOO     VanEck Agribiz     3.6%   -7.9%    6.8%
DE      Deere & Co         3.5%  -12.4%    5.6%
FDP     Fresh Del Monte  -10.2%   -5.3%    3.2%

There is another farmland REIT to compete with FPI, and that is LAND, but its been horrible this year so far so I excluded it.

FPI typically buys farmland and leases it back to farmers. REITs are required to give back a percentage of profits as dividends, which usually makes them good dividend plays. But at 1.67% yield this one isn’t great. I’m holding it though because its one of my few up-stocks.

FDP and CRESY both plant, grow and harvest plants.

NTR and MOS are in seeds and fertilizers.

DE and AGCO are both into equipment.

BG is into distribution, processing, transportation, etc.

ADM is into animal and human nutritional needs.

MOO and SOYB are ETF’s in this space and offer more diversification in one-stop.

I’m currently considering MOS, NTR and ADM to add to my PFI shares. If I do this I will likely sell some of my QQQ shares (23% of my IRA) to fund this.

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The war in Ukraine is impacting food supplies…So I started looking at some other names. Here is what I’ve come up with so far. I listed them in order based on YTD performance.

Don’t forget WEAT, up 65% YTD.
CORN, up 35%
SOYB, up 21%

DB2

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It’s often a good way to go…to go short (or avoid) what I own. I’m a shareholder in MOS. Have been for quite a while. Almost a coin toss for me between MOS and NTR. What settled the issue was comparing the cash on hand vs. total debt.

Again, my way of thinking is not anyone else’s way. One must do their own due diligence if they’re to know what to due in the midst of real time fear and greed. For me, either of these emotions is unbelievably hard to recognize in the moment. I’ve had to develop a review process which has been thought through in quiet markets. I put my current buy or sell decisions through my own review process and it is amazing how often it heavily implies not to do the trade I was contemplating.

Apparently my subconscious is very subtle and very active. Left to my own devices (i.e.without an objective review process) I can be very, very stupid money.

Poz

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You missed Corteva the leading seed producer spun off from Dupont-Dow. Monsanto was main competitor now bought by Bayer. Syngenta, Swiss, bought by the Chinese is getting ready to go public again they say.

Also CF Industries, the largest fertilizer co.

Mosaic mines fertilizer minerals especially potash and phosphate.

I see Bunge and ADM (and private Cargill) mostly as grain traders especially for export. ADM is a leading producer of ethanol for gasoline. All three are big in corn and soybeans.

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poz

A terrific post at the real nub of successful investing – our own heads. Analysis and algorithms are comparatively easy while managing “very subtle and very active…subconscious”, well, with perilous sports, sex. and even addictive drugs I seem able to rally reason, but not with most securities.

You are doing what I found I simply could not – reliably cooly use and be guided by a previously well thought out review process in stock market investments. I looked and found investing arenas where my subconscious is helpful rather than hysterical.

Somehow I am fine with buy and hold of a few REITS. Properties seem to soothe my iddish itchy mind. I was actually good at analysis and selection of medical and quantum physics high tech stocks, where I had very useful knowledge and experience, but even there I have reliably been an idiot and sold my champions ISRG, VRTX, and OLED far far too soon.

Live and learn, maybe, I hope.

david fb

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i bought land at 11+ change…i bought it so i could talk farming

to the breakfast crowd…yep all farmers…=8D

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I am tending my daughter’s orchard/garden this week while she and her husband take their first vacation in 4 years. I just paid myself with a head of butterhead lettuce, some spinach, and 5 fresh eggs. Dinner included a fresh tomato sandwich with fresh lettuce, a sprig of basil picked off the plant and a touch of vinaigrette. Breakfast will include two fresh scrambled eggs and fresh spinach wilted on top. The bread is store bought.

I have talked about it in the past. I really believed that the money we loaned to our daughter and son-in-law to start their orchard 4 years ago would prove to be an inflation hedge. It took 4 years longer than I expected, but it is finally beginning to pan out.

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