World trade 33 trillion of that US imports and exports in 2024 made up about 5 trillion.
Total U.S import 3.36 trillion 2024
Total exports 2.06 trillion 2024
Total exports to China 143 billion
Total import from China 438 billion
So imports from the rest of the world are 3.36 trillion minus 438 billion. Leaving 2.922 trillion
So export to the rest of the world are 2.06 trillion minus 143 billion leaving 1.97 trillion.
So we can expect that most of the China U.S. trade will cease. It actually will not so we could add some back in, but I have a headache so not happening.
The total import and export trade with the rest if the world ex China is 2.922 trillion plus 1.97 trillion. This comes up to about 4.892 trillion.
We can guess, just a wild guess that the 10 percent tariffs will dampen trade. Just assign 10 percent. So dampen trade by 10 percent and we have a new import and export trade at about 4.4 trillion. So we started with about 5.4 trillion in US world trade in 2024 and can project about a 19 percent drop to about 81 percent of what 2024 had.
That looks bad, but a 1 trillion dollar drop in world trade in a 33 trillion dollar world trade is only a 3 percent drop. Of course a 3 percent contraction in world GDP if trade and GDP were directly connected would be a depression. (A recession is sub 2 percent growth, not contraction)
This last guess, dollar for dollar trade to world GDP needs to be worked on more closely.
Cheers
Qazulight (Its only a mild depression so don’t worry about it. 
)