So as we head into the middle of October, we’re kinda-sorta hitting the three year anniversary of when the U.S. permanently switched from being a net importer to a net exporter of petroleum. September of 2021 was the last time that on a monthly basis we imported more petroleum than exported. Ever since then, we’ve been a net exporter - these days, to the tune of about 2 million barrels per day. Pretty amazing.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m
It had been strategic to use “their” oil first.
Now the days of big oil are numbered.
EVs are going to continue to take market share.
Please do not parrot you will always need oil. Marginally the crap is about to be knocked out of that.
And following the economics, fossil fuels would then become significantly cheaper and more abundant, leading to lower prices for households and businesses.
DB2
The lower prices and greater abundance would help both developed and developing economies. Looking at the latter, the IEA writes in its 2024 report (on page 20):
“High financing costs and project risks are limiting the spread of cost-competitive clean energy technologies to where they are needed most, especially in developing economies where they can deliver the biggest returns for sustainable development and affordability. Lack of access to modern energy is the most fundamental inequity in today’s energy system, with 750 million people – predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa – remaining without access to electricity and more than 2 billion without clean cooking fuels.”
This is especially notable, as we are told on page 17 that “…the largest sources of rising demand for energy are, in descending order, India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa…”
The IEA does note that “The last decade has seen the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix gradually come down from 82% in 2013 to 80% in 2023.”
2% in 10 years. That’s a CAGR of -0.2% per year.
DB2
Unfortunately you are just making that up out of assumptions. Supply will be cut off from higher cost wells.
Temporarily. Then, because it is cheaper, we will find more ways to use it and demand will continue to rise. That’s how energy works. When it’s cheap, people use more. When it’s expensive, people find something else to use, but for the same result.
Cheaper fossil fuels is my conclusion, but not mine only.
The IEA acknowledged that the potential for near-term disruption to oil and gas supply remains, due to conflict in the Middle East, which risks disrupting exports of crude and gas from the region. But its long-term view shows an “easing in underlying market balances” and “lower prices on the horizon”, it said…
The price of gas imported into the EU is also expected to plunge from a record average high of over $70 (£54) per million British thermal units (MBtu) in 2022 to $6.50 (£5) by the end of the decade, following a boom in planned gas projects in recent years, according to the IEA.
DB2
The powers that be could have cheap fossil fuels now. It does not happen.