Can’t post on Sauls board so posting here.
I would read the short report. There is a lot of food for thought in there. And scorpion has made the right call on shorts most of the time except for TWST. The sister running lung? The description of the CEO on the calls? The suspicious billing practices are going to put a target on their back. And while coupling the OPO with travel and procurement is a good business move, it definitely blurs lines a bit.
TMDX has a few things going for them
-scale
-day time surgeries
-alot of cash for kickbacks
-political environment that encourages violence (and greed), so the number of donors due to violence likely going up
I never invested because:
-i didn’t see how waleed had any business running a transplant company and his bio reads weird (cardiac surgery research fellowship? Huh?).
-donors are hard to find. Unless they extend the time from withdrawal of care to harvest, for the overall number of donors to increase, you are really reliant on young healthy people having terrible accidents
-lung had previously failed and kidney is cheap so the need for TMDX device just not there
-i just don’t like waleed or the c-suite. They don’t really have much to offer. Likewise, waleed founded the company in 98, and it took him 20+ years to make something vaguely useful. That’s not a great innovator or visionary.
-theyve taken down most of their past IR posts, at least I can’t get to them on mobile. Generally a suboptimal sign.
TMDX does look cheap, and if they can get to 10k transplants, they’ll triple sales. They’re guiding for that for 2028, which would be 1.2b in sales. For a $2b market cap, that could be a steal. But there’s a lot of red flags here and time to see how things play out over the next quarter or two and see if some of these organizations actually do stop using their products.
While Saul’s board has been great, unfortunately they have historically not been able to see flaws in their biotech/med picks often to a fault. Excellent at picking momentum stocks and jumping off the train, just not for medical things. This is a high risk move, riskier than most of their prior picks.