TMDX - thoughts leading into Q3 ER on 11/6

As stated in several posts after the last ER, I greatly reduced my TMDX position because I believed that the stock would be under pressure for some amount of time. (See my old posts for my explanation of why.)
However, I still hold a small amount and I’m watching to see how they perform this quarter and next before determining if I will scale back up.

I am no longer posting the transplant volume charts that I used to share because they did not end up being accurate in predicting # of transplants for TMDX. The charts are all still looking good (meaning more transplants in 2023 vs 2022), but I thought they would have some directional guidance for TMDX volumes, but they did not (at least for lung and heart). So, I’m not going to share them any more. If anyone wants to view them yourselves you can find them here - https://insights.unos.org/OPTN-metrics/.

Concerns I am watching for:

  • There has been a second transplant of a genetically modified pig heart into a human. So far, the patient is doing well. If this concept proves successful, it could eventually dramatically reduce the market for TMDX. I think it is a long, long, long way from wide scale adoption, but it is something to watch. And if it continues to show positive progress, it will not help TMDX. https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/20/health/pig-heart-transplant-maryland-update/index.html

  • XVIVO is performing trials on DCD hearts. I’m not sure how much of a threat this is to TMDX, but again, it’s not going to help as long as they are progressing and trialing. XVIVO | US FDA grants XVIVO approval to include DCD hearts in IDE Clinical Trial - XVIVO

  • I am seeing anecdotal tweets regarding centers using Pargonix for extended duration storage of organs. The Pargonix product is simply a cooler with better temperature control, but it seems like some centers are using it with good results and getting extended duration preservation. TMDX stated (I think - not 100% on this) in a recent conference that they have data showing that the Pargonix results are inferior, but it’s impossible to know for sure exactly what that means, or if it will stop people from using it.

  • TMDX Aviation progress. I am very anxious to hear how the deployment is going for the TMDX aviation initiative. This could be their long term moat, but as has been discussed extensively here, there are risks.

  • Lung transplant sales volumes. This has been the biggest disappointment over the last couple of years. I am really hoping they can start to get some traction with this segment of the market.

Personally, I think the shorts are in control of the stock right now and I don’t want to fight against them. I could elaborate more on this, but I’m sure it would get flagged for being off topic.

So, I am patiently waiting and watching for now and holding my small long-term position.

Peace.

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One more thing - I forgot my standard disclaimer - I could be completely wrong. The CEO is known to be a huge sand-bagger. They could have blow out earnings and the stock could rip and never look back. So, that is why I still hold a small %. I’m still hopeful for the company long term. I’m just not confident enough at this time to have an outsized position.

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