TMFRob Portfolio Status/Comments

I had no plan to post this because I didn’t feel I had a lot to add, largely because my holdings have a LOT of commonality with others. Therefore, I’ll try not to bore anyone with some sort of repeat commentaries. (Hey! Have you heard? Crowdstrike is great!). LOL

Anyway… someone reached out to me and asked that I post. Thanks! I appreciate the kind words. :slight_smile:

Here’s where things stand today with some comments on companies that are not widely held here:


LVGO       22.5% (lotsa calls)
CRWD       21.3  (lotsa calls)
ZM         13.6  (lotsa calls)
DDOG       11.5
TTD         9.7
SE          5.9  (lotsa calls)
FSLY        5.1  (lotsa calls)
MELI        3.8
OKTA        2.3
AYX         0.8
AMZN        0.5

Cash        3.0

LVGO: I got excited the other day because I thought there was a major arbitrage opportunity between the calls for LVGO and TDOC, but after more study today I decided I was mistaken. I’m still entertaining the idea of selling my LVGO calls and buying TDOC calls because I’m uncertain how my LVGO calls will be handled in the merger. I’ll probably raise that question over on a Fool option board. Please don’t provide your thoughts on that here.

Overall, I see the combined LVGO/TDOC being a monster over the next decade… and more. But, I sometimes think I should reduce a bit from where I’m at now… and put it into a company I think will “pop more, sooner” (looking at YOU, ZM). Yeah, short term investing. That’s evidence that I’m truly a Rule Breaking Fool, not that anyone who knows me needs that reinforcement. :wink:

TTD: I was going to sell a large chunk of this… then it popped 10% in the last few days for reasons that escape me. Long term, this will continue to be a monster …but… short term I think 3Q results will continue to be underwhelming. So I’ll probably reduce this soon to pile more into ZM and/or MELI.

SE: Southeast Asia company focusing on… well, not so focused I must say. Huge part of revenues are associated with online games… and mostly just one game. That’s NOT what attracts me. Yet, it’s up 880% in 2020… I missed most of that by the way. What I like is the rapid growth of their online marketplace/payments. Here’s their latest quarter info, which I think you’ll find impressive:

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17974950-sea-limited-reports-sec…

Anti-fragile analysis (need Fool subscription)
https://discussion.fool.com/4056/running-se-through-the-antifrag…

MELI: This company is a Fool favorite. A multi-bagger. Nevertheless, I’m confident this is a future 10-bagger from here and I’d like to buy some more. Why such a big future? Because they continue to demonstrate their optionality… adding/developing fintech. And a big future because they have just scratched the surface of their markets. Here’s the recent Company performance:

http://investor.mercadolibre.com/news-releases/news-release-…

AYX: I’ve been holding this to keep it on my radar but have decided that the active discussions on this board will accomplish that. Accordingly, I’ll sell this too.


Overall, I’m up for the year, but my metrics are odd. :slight_smile:

I’m up a bit more than 100%, but only if I roll my portfolio withdrawals back into the total. Overall, I’ve withdrawn a large amount through the year (about 14% of my starting total). If I don’t include it, I’m up about 89%. Cash has dwindled to 3%… that probably needs a boost because I foresee a lot more withdrawals by yearend.

That’s about it, folks. Nothing profound and not as mindblowingly impressive as some. That’s OK. This “relatively modest” return has shifted us from having a slim cushion to deal with setbacks to now having a huge cushion… and having a far greater ability to reach some of our goals (hence the large withdrawals!).

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

72 Likes

Thank you Rob.
It is great to see someone else on the board talking about MELI.
I have a lot of confidence in the company.

For those who have access to Motley Fool Live (aka Fool TV), here is an incredibly inspiring interview with Federico Sandler, Head of IR at MercadoLibre:
https://www.fool.com/premium/live/video/4056/coverage/2020/0…

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I was going to email this reply, but it is short and generally/widely relevant.

Re: "I’m up a bit more than 100%, but only if I roll my portfolio withdrawals back into the total. Overall, I’ve withdrawn a large amount through the year (about 14% of my starting total). If I don’t include it, I’m up about 89%…

When sharing portfolio performance, Time-Weighted rate of Return (TWR) is the way to do it. This allows for comparisons related to total portfolio management performance and ignores cash flowing in and out. For example, even though my portfolio balance has changed drastically over this year (adding cash, investing, withdrawing a lot to help fund our new home), I can still tell you my TWR is about 78% (Interactive Brokers has an awesome reporting system so I didn’t even have to calculate it myself…though I am working on a spread sheet because I’m a geek like that). If you look at Saul’s knowledge base, he runs through how to do this.

3 Likes

When sharing portfolio performance, Time-Weighted rate of Return (TWR) is the way to do it. – RUN

I’m satisfied with the way I do it. It meets my wants. Note that I didn’t say “meets my needs”… because I don’t perceive a need to do it. Just a want.

But thanks for sharing that.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

Apologies for veering off topic a little bit, but in regards to the TWR (Time-Weighted Return), there is an article by Jim Mueller (Fool analyst) explaining how to do this here:
https://www.fool.com/about/how-to-calculate-investment-retur…

I started using this calculation about six months ago, and I find it very useful. Once you set up a spreadsheet for this, you just need to update it every time you make a deposit or withdrawal.

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How does TWR compare to internal rate of return as in the Excel function for XIRR?

And if tracking an individual position’s performance rather than the entire portfolio, wouldn’t the gains/losses from buys/sells then need to be treated as cash flows into/from that position?

BLancaster

Hi Brooklyn108 and Blancaster,

Spreadsheet calculations are off topic.

Let’s keep the focus on discussing individual growth stocks.

If you need to discuss this further, please take it to another board or perhaps consider an email reply.

All the best,
Lennie
Assistant board manager

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There is a spreadsheet advice board which might be a good place.

https://discussion.fool.com/spreadsheet-advice-100002.aspx?mid=3…

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