TMFRob Portfolio Status/Comments

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

Hi, folks!

Another short missive with little detail on the companies… because most of you have heard it all before. Less reading! Bottom line, up 10.5% YTD… down from about 18.5% before the recent market volatility. No big deal.


Company           Portfolio Share

CRWD                   27.1% (shares & calls)
TDOC                   11.9  (shares & calls)
MGNI                   10.4  (shares & calls)
SE                     10.2  (shares & calls)
DDOG                    8.6  (shares only)
MELI                    5.7  (shares & call)
NET                     4.2  (shares & calls)
ROKU                    4.0  (shares & calls)
TTD                     4.0  (shares only)
FUBO                    2.2  (shares only)
OKTA                    2.0  (shares only)
SHOP                    1.4  (shares only)
FSLY                    0.9  (shares only)
STMP                    0.6  (calls only)
NARI                    0.5  (shares only)
AMZN                    0.4  (shares only)

Cash 5.9%

CRWD: Everyone knows this one.

TDOC: I sold about half my holdings… right before it recently popped up by 30%. LOL. I sold only shares, kept some shares and all calls. I really don’t know how well or “averagingly” it will do, but plan to watch quarterly earnings to either keep or trim. Who knows?

MGNI: Mostly June $12.50 calls, they are down substantially from the recent share price peak of $40. Based on widespread enthusiasm… and hopefulness on my part… I think it’ll be a lot higher by the end of the year (80?). Absolutely nothing worthwhile to back that up until the earnings report rolls in.

SE: This really is under appreciated with strong fintech growth. 90%-100% growth expected (by me) this year, copying the recent past, despite what I believe to be sandbagged guidance.

DDOG: Everyone knows this one.

MELI: Also under appreciated with strong fintech growth. I was all shares but added ONE call option. LOL. Sounds absurd perhaps, but call options are expensive.

NET: I decided Saul’s explanation was pretty convincing so I bought some shares and calls.

ROKU: Bought and sold some last year, bought back in again (at a much higher price) last year because performance of the company was impressive and they’re in the early stages of going international.

TTD: Approximately a 17 bagger for me currently. I think it’s overpriced for the short term but plan to continue holding due to it’s long term potential.

FUBO: If growth expectations materialize, this one is underpriced.

OKTA: Everyone knows this one.

SHOP: Recently bought it. Established a small position just because. Growth is stupid high, may be a good deal. (Can’t believe I’m saying that. LOL)

FSLY: I sold my calls quite a while ago. Still have some shares in a taxable account with a nice profit. Plan on holding at least to the one year mark. We’ll see if it’s worth holding longer.

STMP: I follow this company for the Fool. Management abandoned their business thesis of a special USPS relationship to pursue all shipping without the USPS fetters. I thought it highly risky and decided to stay away. Long story short, management was right! Growth has resumed, earnings are exploding, stock is undervalued (for now). 2020 PE (not PS) of 23, growth of 40%…for how long? I bought some calls to take advantage of the situation until tbd. Nice profit so far. I will continue to hold for now.

NARI: Certainly worthwhile for now. Ongoing monitoring like everything else of course.

AMZN: I bought this after it was a Fool 20-bagger. I’ve had a 10-bagger since then. Crazy, huh? I hold this small position because I expect continued growth… and a reminder that I can do just fine even when I buy too late. :slight_smile:

Cash: A fairly large cash position because we spend a lot of money every year. I expect we’ll be selling a lot more stuff this year… and I’m STILL expecting the total portfolio value to rise 50% by year end… assuming no market repricing/downturn. But, as I often say on the boards… 80%-100% annual growth overcomes market downturns pretty decisively as time plays out.

Rob
Rule Breaker Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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2

A few of my companies recovered in price today, moving YTD from 10.5% to 16.2% up.

I’d like to expand on what I said earlier:

  • Special situations (for me) are recognizing and acting on what appear to be short term opportunities …with the ability to keep holding if necessary. STMP and NARI fit that description in my portfolio.

  • FUBO: Another lockup expires on April 6th. I’m not concerned, just mentioning. Here is more of a “why this is interesting” from Starrob’s SA article:

Q3 2020 subscription revenue grew 64% year-over-year to $53.4 million, ad revenue grew 153% year-over-year to $7.5 million and fuboTV ended the quarter at an all-time high of 455,000 paid subscribers, which is an increase of 58% year-over-year. Total content hours streamed by fuboTV users (paid and free trial), a sign of viewer engagement, increased 83% year-over-year to 133.3 million hours in the quarter. Growth is expected to continue into next year. Full year 2021 revenue is expected to be $415-435 million, an increase of over 70% year-over-year after a expected 2020 revenue increase of over 65% year-over-year. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397589-fubotv-tv-for-sport…

On a related note, market cap is $5.7B. When combined with the 2021 expected revenue (probably sandbagged), that puts PS at 13 for a company with impressive top line growth. BUT… negative margins right now, with “analyst expectations” of 50% margins in time. Concurrent with the margin situation is a very large collection of short positions.

I view this as slightly speculative. It’s 2.6% of my portfolio following today’s 24% rise. Yeah. 24%. Today.

Ain’t the market grand? :wink:

Rob
Rule Breaker Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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3

At the risk of having my post deleted for being off topic, as a message mostly for the newcomers to this board I want to reinforce your observation:

. . . a reminder that I can do just fine even when I buy too late. :slight_smile:

I have never, not once bought a stock at “the bottom.” I have invariably been into every position I’ve ever held “too late”. Yet, since I have been following this board (I think about 5 years now) my performance has exceeded my wildest dreams, I’m up over 450% (not even accounting for cash withdrawals).

Even last year, when I panicked and went to cash early in the year and stayed out of the market for several weeks, I finished the year just shy of 100% gain.

There is no such thing as “too late.” The very notion of “the bottom” is a form of price anchoring.

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