August CPI was 0.3% on monthly and 3.7% on annual basis both higher than projected (guess) so bad news. Below is July which was already known.
Last month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported to have increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.2% on an annual basis. This indicates that inflation is on the rise and its economic effects continue to be observed.
Inflation worsened last month probably no surprise, but now we wait and see what the FOMC says. Those who guess say the fed won’t raise interest rates at the next meeting, but the committee are in the silent period at present…doc
Thanks for the report. The only thing possibly holding back the FED would be their own messaging to the corporations. The FED needs corporate planners to act on FED decisions for FED decisions to have an effect. There is not much point otherwise. The bad thing about raising rates would be cutting off industrial planners to a degree. The good thing would be cutting off some of the lending that is causing much of the inflation.
Is a hike in rates needed? Possibly not. Instead finding more oil is the major goal. Something the FED can not do. If you are invested in oil do not trust that the Western Cartel will not correct the problem as Russia and SA threaten oil production cuts. Do not trust the numbers in China for oil demand won’t worsen.
The publicly touted stuff on CNBC for the general public is shaky stuff. Could come true but why give you an edge on Wall Street by watching CNBC?
Is there a typo there? The BLS report starts off with:
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.”
The 0.3% is probably what they call “core”. The 0.6% is the real number used in all CPI-U calculations. They look at “core” because that is apparently what the fed looks at more closely.
In the CFA program there is a discussion not to rely on economic data for decision making. While there can be a complex notion of leading indicators and lagging indicators the methodologies are not good enough to predict and work with the numbers for decision making.
Just note that there is a number “of sorts” and do nothing with it.
The bigger brushstrokes of building the economy can be seen very often. That is useful for positioning.
0.3% without food or energy is wrong. The number is right. There is an oil shock right now. This means more inflation on goods and services that rely on oil. We notched upward a tad.
It is not relevant except to some of the global power economics and politics. It forces the Western Cartel to source oil differently to India and China.
Yes, that is the core monthly change. That number is found in the BLS report. The Ninja News item used that number, although they didn’t mention it was the core number. However, they went on to state the YoY change was 3.7%, and the core YoY number was actually 4.3%.
So, it appears they used the core rate for one number and the all-item rate for the other number.
