CPI is used to calculate the interest on TIPS and I-Bonds but the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE index (which will be published in a week) when considering how to manage the fed funds rate.
The FOMC will end its June meeting later today so they will take today’s CPI data into account.
The options market predicts a fed funds cut no earlier than September so nobody expects the Fed to move on today’s CPI report.
The change in the CPI was minuscule but there was a slightly bigger drop in the core CPI.
Inflation Eased Slightly to 3.3% in May, Lower Than Expected
Core prices that exclude volatile food and energy items climbed 3.4% from a year earlier
By David Uberti and Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal, Updated June 12, 2024
U.S. inflation slowed in May, an ease in price pressures that should boost the likelihood of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year.
The consumer-price index, a measure of goods and service costs across the economy, rose 3.3% annually last month, the Labor Department said Wednesday. In April, prices rose 3.4%.
Core prices that exclude volatile food and energy items rose 0.2% in May, the mildest increase since last July, and were up 3.4% from a year ago, the smallest year-over-year rise since 2021. The closely watched measure of inflation was much softer than economists predicted… [end quote]
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
CPI for all items unchanged in May; shelter up
06/12/2024
In May, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was unchanged, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in May (SA); up 3.4 percent over the year (NSA).
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Inflation is calculated from many components which fluctuate from month to month so the overall CPI is an average. Clearly, this month’s CPI is not significantly different from the past 6 months. The fluctuations are noise around an average of about 3.3%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices (since nobody uses food or energy, right?) is trending downward slowly.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publishes “Inflation Nowcasting” which includes quarterly annualized percent change.
Combined with the strong employment report from last week and also improving small business optimism the Fed won’t cut the fed funds rate earlier than September (barring a black swan crisis).
Wendy