Today's Surge in Nat Gas Price

Yesterday, the news was that oversupply would take rigs off line. Markets discount. So it’s easy to see from a chart that traders had already begun to sell down.

Prices gapped down two days in a row, going from about 8.50 to about 7.20, a pretty big moves compared to the average daily move, suggesting “Over-sold”. Also, gaps tend to get filled. So, trusting my instincts, I put on a speculative position yesterday that I got out of today midday, capturing about 3/4ths of the total move.

How should such a trade be graded? The money gained or lost is irrelevant. What matters is whether the entry and exit were done to plan. Therefore, an ‘B’ for entry. But a ‘D’ for the exit. (I shouda trailed a stop and walked it up as prices rose.)

Here’s the backstory behind today’s hysteria.

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