Sorry for the long post. I wasn’t asked to list all my holdings but for top ideas, the most worthy candidates from me would/should be my highest conviction stocks. (It takes a lot for me to LOAD UP ON one stock.) With this list someone must then wrestle if the price is viable. That’s the hardest part for me.
Here are my top 10 positions which one would hope are the highest conviction choices. If any of those represent a good value at today’s prices, they would be candidates for purchase:
TOTAL STOCK POSITIONS: 40
SHORT STOCK POSITIONS: 3
TOP 10 HOLDINGS BELOW:
AAPL 11.7% of Portfolio
These 10 represent 48% of the total value including cash, (2.7%…too low, working on increasing that to 25-30% in 2015)
I’m working on lowering ttl stock positions during 2015…(these 40 positions are down from 72 in early 2014) but basically, I can’t/won’t/ don’t want to do deep analysis so I depend upon others for that work. My job then is to pick advisors carefully and use my wide business experience in assessing management and business models. Based upon my performance last year, I did pretty good though most of the time I wasn’t sure what I was doing, where I was going, if I was on track or not, etc.
I also have 55 options positions spread out over 2 years with single/multiple contracts and which require 51% required maintenance but no loan. (Too much see through risk considering we are OVERDUE for a sizeable correction and I am working on lowering that by March, 2015)
In 2014, option positions yielded 5 points of the 17.1 point performance I managed to attain for this portfolio. Thanks and adoration go to Jeff Fisher and Jim Gilies for that bump up in performance, otherwise I would have been better off in an index fund, spending my days and nights getting fat and stupid.
What I would put new money into at today’s prices?
I have lots of option positions on some of these stocks so I can’t really add to them without possibly overexposing myself, even if the valuation is acceptable. Plus, I have an IRA with some of these very same stocks so I’m not sure if I should add more in this portfolio, if I already have more of it in the other portfolio. For instance, I own MIDD, FB, AMT, AAPL, BIDU, LKND, in both portfolios…Having said that, I am looking to add, either via options or buying stock and at today’s prices, the following:
CELG (If you hold for 3 years even today’s price looks decent)
DIS (If you hold for 3 years even today’s price looks decent)
GILD (at today’s price, I think this is a STEAL)
KMI (at today’s price)
CMG (at today’s price)
SWKS (per Gaucho Chris at today’s price)
MA (at today’s price)
EVERY STATEMENT HEREIN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY “In my opinion” and “DON’T DO AS I DO”: (The use of “HEREIN” makes that a legal disclaimer
New money has to go into stocks that don’t look like a value trap on the way in, which is the thing I hate the most and with a retraction on the horizon, I’m very leary of buying in at a high valuation, mo mo price and then sitting there for 2 years fighting back to even…maybe. That’s why I sold AMZN recently, (Just before it finally crested my buy in price)and long ago dumped SODA and TCS after realizing even though they were recommended by venerables, they weren’t my cup of tea.
Here’s my IRA portfolio. Both of these portfolios stand between me and destitution so although I do gamble a bit, I pay the price if it all goes badly.
AAPL 9.0 %
These 11 stocks out of 26 represent 60% of the total value and this portfolio is 13% smaller than the larger one. I have 3.5% cash in this one, and since I have less stocks, I have no intention of increasing the cash other than to have a bit more for a few pullback buys, like beefing up MA, MIDD and AMT (the latter two don’t show up in the top 11 but I’d like them to be there).
I also have a few options positions in the IRA but too few to mention, and I might add, this portfolio just about equaled the S&P performance in 2014, mainly less than the other one due to way less option traffic.
Hope that helps someone and I encourage feedback and/or criticism since, Feedback, whether negative or positive, is a gift.