First, and off topic, thanks to everyone who sent suggestions for my daughter. She’s busy working on them.
Second, and also off topic, I see that my favorite bugaboo, WPRT, is down to $12.98 again. I tried warning people 2 or 3 years ago when it was at $29 - $30. When a company was losing so much money that it couldn’t break even any time in the foreseeable future, it was silly. It’s still a “Buy” on MF SA by the way.
Thirdly, what a bad day Friday was. The only stocks I follow that were up were Avigilon, Sketcher, Solar City and PSIX (and the latter two I have been out of for a little while, showing once again that I don’t get them all right).
Okay, my stocks, this time in alphabetical order.
AEYE – a small position. I haven’t bought or sold for at least 3 weeks.
AIOCF – an average plus position. I added a bunch at $16.75, and some more at $17.60. It was up 80 cents this week to $18.37.
AMBA – an average minus position. It’s gone straight up for 5 weeks and I sold a little to buy other things.
BOFI – one of my big four. I added some this week at 73.90 and 75.40. Everything is going better than good.
CELG – another of my big four. Has gone up steadily from $79 to $95
CGNX – a very small position and a MF recommendation (I note that everything up to here except AEYE is a MF rec somewhere). I’m adding very slowly.
JCOM - an average position. Haven’t touched it in weeks.
PFIE - an average plus position. I’m still adding tiny amounts.
PRLB – another very small position. I added a little recently at $76.40. High PE so I’m reluctant to add much.
SKX – Sketchers is in the process of turning my big four into my big five. Not because I’m still adding (I haven’t recently), but because it keeps melting up on good news.
SWKS - an average plus position. I added some this week. Also a MF recommendation, and a relatively new position, like PRLB and CGNX.
SYNA – one of my big five, staying up near the top of its graph. I haven’t done anything recently.
SZYM – an average plus position. SZYM is proving to me once again that buying story stocks that are not yet profitable is damn risky. Sorry, the news isn’t at all bad, but the stock action is.
UBNT – Last of my big five. Has been going up for 5 weeks and decided to take a rest on Friday (but still up for the week). I sold a little to bring it back to my 12% limit (which it keeps wanting to grow out of). My biggest position.
ULTI – small position. Lots of renewable income, but very high PE so I’m being cautious. Adding small amounts only.
WAB – Average minus position. I added a bunch at about 83 about 6 weeks ago. Still there. No buys or sells since. Very steady, low beta stock.
Z – Ran up straight over a period of months from a low of 75 to a high of 160. (over 100%). They are doing great but enormous PE as they are plowing cash back into advertising and growing the business. I sold some to buy other comapnies that are also growing fast, but are at a third or quarter of the PE, and are growing earnings fast too. Z is now an average minus position.
Best
Saul
For FAQ’s and Knowledgebase please go to Post #3325
And for the rest of you: I well remember how Saul’s wise warnings on the WPRT board 2 or 3 years ago were not well received, to put it mildly. And his words had the distinct ring of truth which I’ve never forgotten: Simply put, Saul was merely pointing out that if a company is spending money like a drunken sailor…including spending all of next months money and the next years money, you just may want to sell. (No offense to drunken sailors.)
Oh yes…and he politely suggested buying another NG company called PSIX. PSIX was making real money month after month! Sounded like great common sense to me. I’m still holding my very profitable PSIX 3 years later.
Thank you Saul, for contributing to my investing analytical skills the past 3 years. And you showed how some simple common sense can sure make a huge difference in our returns.
Thanks for the update. I find it very interesting to study your moves and tactics “month by month” and “quarter by quarter” in the midst of the broader strategy you apply to the entire “game” of investing.
You commented in your post, “what a bad day Friday was.” And, today… OUCH!
I was down 3% Friday, across many stocks, when the S&P was only down .07%. Not panicked at all, but how curious? The news says it’s people taking profits in order to invest in the Alibaba IPO. Boggles my mind that one IPO could have that effect.
The news says it’s people taking profits in order to invest in the Alibaba IPO. Boggles my mind that one IPO could have that effect.
It should boggle your mind! It’s a great story line for Cramer and the talking heads, but if you look at the facts, the Alibaba IPO at $25 billion is about 0.09% of the US stock market’s $26.4 trillion value (projected from the World Bank 2012 value):
Hi Saul and All,
Been catching up on this board sorting by recommended posts, so I apologize if I’ve just missed this info along the way (even with the Knowledgebase!).
Thirdly, what a bad day Friday was. The only stocks I follow that were up were Avigilon, Sketcher, Solar City and PSIX (and the latter two I have been out of for a little while, showing once again that I don’t get them all right).
I didn’t ever see a rationale for selling out of PSIX. Was this just trading the flow after the ebb to move into other opportunities, or were you seeing any red flags in the financials?
Also didn’t see INBK on your alphabetical listing. The last mention I could find was back in June where you said you were willing to see how this plays out. Anirban, I’d also be interested in your thoughts given the recent price dip (now under $16). It has my value-hunter radar pinging at these prices and with insider buys at higher levels, but I know you follow it more closely than I have been. I’ve read Fletch’s excellent analysis, but even with the higher efficiency ratio, INBK at these prices looks like a long-term buy to me. I hold positions in both INBK and BOFI and am getting interested in adding to both at current prices.
Anirban, I’d also be interested in your thoughts given the recent price dip (now under $16). It has my value-hunter radar pinging at these prices and with insider buys at higher levels, but I know you follow it more closely than I have been. I’ve read Fletch’s excellent analysis, but even with the higher efficiency ratio, INBK at these prices looks like a long-term buy to me. I hold positions in both INBK and BOFI and am getting interested in adding to both at current prices.
My fundamental thinking of INBK remains unchanged. There have been several insider buys, some at the $18 levels. These buys were from several executives and were of significant values. INBK reported very strong deposit and loan book growth this past quarter. They continue to invest in the bank’s growth. Right now, it’s selling for about 0.8x book value. IMO, its a great buy for anyone with a 5-10 year horizon.
The stock has traded sideways and down. It’s followed by two analysts and one of them I think put it on hold. It’s a micro cap so the price is just plain volatile!
It’s one of my top 3 positions. I continue to follow it closely but there’s been no new company specific news. I am also subscribed to their IR communications.
Hope this helps.
Feel free to email if you don’t get a response when you call me out. Sometimes, I miss out reading posts on the boards.
My fundamental thinking of INBK remains unchanged. There have been several insider buys, some at the $18 levels. These buys were from several executives and were of significant values. INBK reported very strong deposit and loan book growth this past quarter. They continue to invest in the bank’s growth. Right now, it’s selling for about 0.8x book value. IMO, its a great buy for anyone with a 5-10 year horizon.
Anirban,
I completely agree. I nearly doubled my position today given the attractive valuation. INBK has now become an average sized position in my portfolio and a position I plan to hold for the long-term. Most of their metrics are on the upswing in terms of efficiency, loan/geographical diversification and asset quality. I can’t help but correlate their market opportunity to BOFI, which I am heavily invested in, and which has done exceedingly well to this point. Surely there is room for another well-run branchless bank. I am also sure INBK has learned plenty from watching BOFI and the industry evolve, and they appear to be adding critical skills to their organization in order to do so.
I am excited about the possibilities here, and am pleased to invest while they are an unknown upstart.
The Street downgraded them to hold saying this: Among the primary strengths of the company is its expanding profit margins over time. At the same time, however, we also find weaknesses including a generally disappointing performance in the stock itself, feeble growth in the company’s earnings per share and deteriorating net income.
Stock action was given as one reason. Poor earnings growth was another, but that’s BS because there was solid earnings growth last quarter.
I didn’t ever see a rationale for selling out of PSIX. Was this just trading the flow after the ebb to move into other opportunities, or were you seeing any red flags in the financials?
Hi gameguru,
I eased out of PSIX some time ago. At the time I believe I indicated why I was at least lightening my position, but when I’m asked about it some months later it’s often difficult for me to recall why I did something. I’m pretty sure I saw no red flags at all. It was a high PE and slow growth for a number of quarters in relation to that high PE, and when I was looking to buy something else, I thought “I could sell some PSIX for cash”. It could turn out to be a big mistake, but I believe that’s what I did.
Also didn’t see INBK on your alphabetical listing.
Hi again gameguru
I never took a big position in INBK for a very good reason: It was too illiquid. Yahoo Finance shows average volume for the last 30 days of 14,000 shares per day! That comes to just a little more than $200,000 per day and is tiny! For example, Zillow, which is not a huge company, trades more dollar volume than that every 30 seconds. It’s hard to take a position in INBK, and worse, if there is bad news it would be almost impossible to get out of a sizable position without greatly depressing the market. If I were to take another trial position, which I’m not ruling out, it would have to be a very small one.
There have been several insider buys of INBK, some at the $18 levels. These buys were from several executives and were of significant values.
Hi Anirban,
I don’t know what to make of those insider buys. There have been lots of them, but the stock keeps going down. There were insider buys in March 2013 at $25, and in Aug 2013 at $30, and all through the decline since then. Goes to show that insiders don’t always know what the stock is going to do. There have been no insider sales, which is remarkable. It’s hard to figure.
Saul
Hi Sameer, UBNT is tied for my biggest position, and is at 11% (which is at my upper limit of size) so I haven’t added, but if my position was smaller, I would.
Saul
Hi Sameer, UBNT is tied for my biggest position, and is at 11% (which is at my upper limit of size) so I haven’t added, but if my position was smaller, I would. Saul
Okay, Sameer, I broke down and added a little at $39. I couldn’t resist.
Saul