Totally, completely and absolutely WRONG!
Looking back now at just 5 weeks ago, when we were all so scared that a Bear Market was here, do you remember what is was like? The news was full of falling stock market stories. And China was collapsing, Europe was collapsing, Russia was collapsing, Oil was collapsing. Worldwide debt was going to kill us. Deflation was going to kill us (Funny, if debt was supposed to kill us, it should be inflation we should worry about, but Oh, well!). A Zacks newsletter that I read sometimes which is supposed to be a “long-term” long newsletter, was breaking all its rules and buying ETF’s that were short the market to adapt to the “Bear Market”. Even the MF was running stories about how to survive the coming Bear Market. It was scary. I was scared too. I really was! It’s important to remember how scared you were this time, the next time the market is going down. It may save you from some irrational actions that you’ll regret afterwards.
And all these market timers we had never seen before turned up on our board saying that their Technical Analysis charts and metrics were telling them that the market was going to crash, it was going way down from there, there was no hope. And they chuckled among themselves about what poor naïve dopes we buy-and-hold people were. That was during the week before the market turned up. Not one TA guy said his metrics indicated that there was a possibility that the market was going to turn up. So much for TA guided market timing…
It turns out that all those people saying you should sell everything and get into cash, were wrong. But not just a little wrong. They were completely, totally and absolutely wrong. It’s important to remember that the next time the market is going down, everyone is saying to sell, and you get that panicky feeling. That doesn’t say a Bear Market will never happen. It will! But trying to time the market is a losing game.
My bottom was Thurs Feb 11.
My portfolio is up about 19% since then. That’s a bunch.
The S&P 500 is up 12% since Feb 11, way more than its average gain in a year. It’s even up 0.3% on the year, after that terrible January. Sound like a Bear market to you?
The Russell 2000 Small Cap index is up 15.5% since Feb 11, again way more than its average gain in a year.
Skyworks is up 38% since Feb 11. That’s 38%!
LGIH is up 23% since then.
Skechers is up 17% since then.
CBM is up 12% since then.
Amazon is up 10% since then in spite of being beaten down the past two days from $577 to $552 over some news from Apple.
I hope that you stayed 100% invested through this, and didn’t get frightened into getting out at the very bottom.
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