A funny thing happened last Monday. Two of the Zacks newsletters that I subscribe to decided to get more defensive. One of them even put on a short ETF (that will rise if the market falls and fall if the market rises). One of these newsletters is actually even a “long-term growth” newsletter and has no business trying to time the market.
The same day, one of our board contributors started asking “Are we in a bear market?” The last time he insisted we were starting a down market we went up for 8 straight weeks before starting down again.
I’m a believer in contrarian indicators. When a young manager of a “long-term growth” newsletter (whose background is in trading, by the way), makes a totally irrational decision out of fear, and another seasoned newsletter writer says, “I believe we are still in a bull market, but we better get more defensive to protect our portfolio” (or something like that), I figured the market was about to turn upwards (at least for now).
So what happened? My completely long and not at all defensive portfolio is up 8.4% in the five trading days since last Monday’s close. That’s a bunch. I can’t tell you what tomorrow will bring (or even guess), but the world probably won’t come to an end this week.
Saul
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A funny thing happened last Monday. Two of the Zacks newsletters that I subscribe to decided to get more defensive. One of them even put on a short ETF (that will rise if the market falls and fall if the market rises). One of these newsletters is actually even a “long-term growth” newsletter and has no business trying to time the market.
They took off their “bear” ETF today, after 6 days of losing money on it in a “long term growth” portfolio. So much for timing the market!!!
Saul
7 Likes
They took off their “bear” ETF today, after 6 days of losing money on it in a “long term growth” portfolio. So much for timing the market!!!
In fact, since they finally gave up on their short position and sold out of it, the market will probably be down tomorrow (taking them as a contrary indicator).
They took off their “bear” ETF today, after 6 days of losing money on it in a “long term growth” portfolio. So much for timing the market!!!
In fact, since they finally gave up on their short position and sold out of it, the market will probably be down tomorrow (taking them as a contrary indicator).
Yesterday I wrote about a “long term growth” newsletter that panicked last Monday after weeks of falling markets and put on a bear or short ETF. Of course, as soon as they put on the short, the market went straight up for six days through yesterday, so their long results were held back by the money they were losing on their short position. So they finally gave up yesterday and closed the short position. As I predicted, as soon as they closed the short, the market was down today.
You can imagine how frustrating this must have been for them. This is what happens when you try to time the market. It’s constant frustration.
Don’t do it.
Saul
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Saul,
I have to disagree in having no problems trading the Tetter Totter Principle via the 2x and 3x ETF’s as I have previoulsly noted. Basically, they are in constant postive cash flow positions with some occasional minor speed bumps along the way.
Keep in mind that Investing is a Business and must be treated as such.
As a thought, my TNA is up 21.5229 percent since wednesday 10/15/2014 today and climbing. The inverse, TZA, gained before the xover 39.4356 percent in a short period of time.
I believe the writers you mentioned were investors/traders that failed at it and then decided to tout there wares or basically clueless on how to read charts to create profits.
Review TNA on the following free charts as well as Stockcharts.com using the scanning tools to exactly find the starting and exiting positions per each of the panels.
Freestockcharts.com
top down
panel one - 5 / 20 ema’s
panel two - MACD 5 20, Exp Moving Average 9
panel three-Commodity Channel Index (cci) 14 which is the leading indicator in trending up or down.
Click and place the mouse on 10/15/14 and observe panel three’s CCI crossing over the -100 heading north.
For folks who like to use the cheat sheet or the cliffnotes, peruse the following. A person who is visually impaired of a blind person can make a living by someone telling them the exact crossovers. You don’t even need to see panels one or panels two.
http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Commo…
Best regards,
Quillnpenn - “In tribute to all who seek to record their ideas and share them with others” by “Buying from the Scared, Selling to the Greedy”
ps…QLD is up 10.8108 percent as of this moment.
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