From DreamerDad over on the NPI board:
What is more impressive: 60% growth but neg earnings or 50% growth but pos earnings?
And then who has bigger TAM?
MDB:
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17349268-mongodb-inc-announces-t…
ZS:
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17349250-zscaler-reports-first-q…
ESTC:
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17349282-elastic-n-v-reports-str…
interesting how similar these all are in size. ZS has largest fiscal year forecast number, but only because they just announced their Q1.
I had actually just noted that myself in regards to ZS and MDB and was planning to post about it, but now that I look, Elastic is right there with them. Since these 3 have reported on the same day and at present all seem to have right around the same magnitude of revenue, it might make sense to track them together/against each other from this quarter forward to future quarters. If I remember correctly from the latest summary, Saul owns some of all 3 of these companies.
To keep from bugging myself by not doing this, I’ll go ahead and put some numbers down to quickly compare the 3 (sorry for using market cap from Google finance, which may not be reliable, rather than enterprise values):
MDB:
$65.0M latest quarter revenue (up 57% y-o-y)
-$9.7M FCF
$4.48B market cap (per Google finance, likely based on 12/4 closing price)
ZS:
$63.3M latest quarter revenue (up 59% y-o-y)
+$5.2M FCF (8% of revenue)
$4.53B market cap (per Google finance, likely based on 12/4 closing price)
ESTC:
$63.6M latest quarter revenue (up 72% y-o-y)
-$1.4M FCF
$5.78B market cap (per Google finance, likely based on 12/4 closing price)
volfan84
long MDB & ZS
no ESTC position
22 Likes
To add color…
Next Quarter Guides (high end)
MDB: $74M - 64% YoY
ZS: $67M - 49% YoY
ESTC: $66M - (not enough data)
3 Likes
ESTC: $66M - (not enough data)
Historical quarterly financials are in their prospectus, page 89 here
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000119312518…
Prior year’s January quarters revenue was $41.7M. So a +58% if they do $66M next quarter
-mekong
2 Likes
Next Quarter Guides (high end)
MDB: $74M - 64% YoY
ZS: $67M - 49% YoY
ESTC: $66M - (not enough data)
Since the latest quarter has actually happened now, here were the actual revenue numbers:
MDB - $85.5M (with a shift from ASC 605 to 606 as part of that, if not mistaken)
ZS - $74.3M
ESTC - $70.8M
These simple deltas between the expectation and what actually happened (+$11.5M for MDB, +$7.3M for ZS, and +$4.8M for ESTC) seem to give a quick & easy picture for the recent (past few months) price action for these 3 companies, with MongoDB as the far and away top performer (for this short time period) followed by ZScaler and then Elastic.
volfan84
long MDB, ZS, & ESTC
3 Likes
Might be interesting to revisit this thread later this evening, since Elastic and MongoDB have both announced their latest quarters’ results.
I see 78% y-o-y for MDB (340% for Atlas and 82% for subscription revenue) and 63% y-o-y revenue growth for Elastic for the quarter (68% on a constant currency basis, and 70 and 72% for the full year).
Also, looks like MDB flipped to FCF positive for the quarter (+$2.8M), whereas ESTC is still a bit negative (at -$27.4M). Cash and equivalents for MDB at the end of the quarter was $479M and for ESTC was $298M.
Initial reactions are that MDB has given back some of today’s gains from the normal hours and ESTC appears to be relatively flat (but has crept up a bit from the initial drop right after the release).
volfan84
long MDB & ESTC
6 Likes