I have been following it Pete. It looks like a Double Bottom to me.
Andy, you posted a chart of VST, I posted VIST, which is in better shape.
1 Like
Thanks Pete for the Correction. Funny how I missed that I and transposed it to VST. I haven’t been watching VIST but it is in a stage 8 base. IBD says late stages have a more likely chance of failing. I would never touch anything above a stage 4 and in this market I am trying to stay with stage 1 and 2.
How do you decide a stock is in which stage? Thanks
That is a good question Bridge. First of all Stan Weinstein wrote a book on stage analysis that is very popular “Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets” You can also find him on interviews on Youtube which are very interesting.
The way I knew that VST was stage 8 is because IBD charts tell us what stage a stock is in. Sometimes they miss a pattern but mostly they are pretty good. Look at VIST here.
I hovered my pointer over the flatbase and it told me stage 8.
Another way to do it is to count the bases yourself. As long as a base does not undercut a previous base it keeps counting up. If it undercuts a previous base it goes back to 1. Hope that helps if not keep asking questions.
1 Like
Andy, a slight nuance: the base has to advance 20% before the next base is the next stage. Otherwise, it is a base-on-base.
Here is the chart for RACE with the latest base stats displayed.
It is a Stage 2c(4). The previous base is Stage 2b(3), before that 2a(2), and before that Stage 1. No, I don’t recall what the full terminology means. I am sure the first Stage 2 was just “Stage 2” but once there was a Stage 2b(3), it must have been relabeled to 2a(2). Also, I don’t recall every seeing a Stage 8 before, which should mean the stock is very long in the tooth and would be more risky. Bill would say that by Stage 3 or 4 “everybody already knew about it”.
RE CAVA: I have been trying to resist since I have SHAK and I am above the recommended exposure of 40-60%, but I decided to buy a 1/6 position just to be in it. The base is only about 5-weeks, not long enough for a cup base to be declared, which is why MarketSurge does not label it. Also, the “breakout” volume was very weak, so it is not a buyable breakout. So by all measures, I am cheating. EPS in 6 days, so that is an additional risk. I did sell my 1/3 TOL position to even out exposure level. I did not buy anything else today, but I did buy SHAK (full) and NVDA (1/6) yesterday and will post charts this weekend. I also owe some of my recent sell charts for group study.
The cup can be spread out from 1 to 6 months, occasionally longer. Ideally, the handle will form and complete over 1-4 weeks.
Maybe at Fidelity it can, but not at IBD! 
The cup-with-handle patterns can be anywhere from seven to 65 weeks, though they generally last around three to six months. Like any good pattern, a successful cup needs a strong uptrend prior to its formation. Look for at least a 30% increase in price combined with improving relative strength.
The cup’s depth, the drop from its absolute high to its low, can be up to 33% though typically it is less than that. Most cups will have a round “U” shaped bottom rather than a sharp V-shaped one.
This aspect of the cup is crucial. A rounded bottom allows the stock time for a natural correction. The remaining weak shareholders are worn out, leaving behind a solid foundation of strong owners who will be less apt to sell during the next advance.
The handle represents the last shakeout before a stock takes off. After returning near the high of the cup, the stock will drift downward with lighter volume for at least one week. This steady movement down from the handle’s start should generally be contained within 12%.
Also beware of a quick drop with a slow wedge up in price or simple sideways actions, both of which signal the absence of the needed shakeout.
Also, the handle area should develop above the 10-week moving average and in the upper half of the overall base.
[Not in this article, but they have said the handle should not be below the midpoint of the base.]
We are talking a cup pattern not a cup and handle. If you would like to use IBD than they state a cup should be at least 6 weeks. Whew!! Cava just meets it. 
The cup with handle must be at least seven weeks long. If there is no handle, then the cup itself must stretch a minimum six weeks.
Oh snap!
$TTEK
This is an interesting chart to study for future similar patterns (and can be bought now)
TTTK gaped up to the top of the buy zone after earnings, maybe I would have bought it or maybe figure I missed the good buy point earlier in the day. At any rate, then the market “tanked”, this chart was a super hero and barely budged. On ugly Monday, it fell out of the buy zone, but not by much. Might have finished at about 50% of true range for the day, regardless it was a good reversal and a small drop. The next 3 days it bounced at top of buy range, but then went 3-4% down on low volume and has been going sideways at that level for a while. (Stage 3 base). IBD rankings very strong.
1 Like
I found this on one of the screens. $GD has some good growth rankings, has built a tight base
Group 22/197, earning out of the way. But this is not a “Growth” stock, Revs and EPS not growing fast. This might be a counter balance to tech stocks in your IBD collection. (Same for DVA)
Here is what I am seeing as the best opportunities at this time. Just my opinion.
$KRYS
$IOT
$FRPT
$ONON
$TGTX
$NBIX
4 Likes
$KRYS: I can see the attraction, starting to make real profits, estimates are for strong EPS growth in 2024 and 2025. Accumulation is very poor, but other rankings are decent. Original breakout had +45% vol (decent) and it made a good run. The market correction wacked it, but it has come back above and held the 50dma and 21dma. Usually, when a stock falls that far below the buy point, IBD says the buy point is invalid. Not too important here, but they might start saying the recent high is the top of a base-on-base.
$IOT: It reacted well on ugly Monday and end positive in the upside reversal. The breakout was very week with 8% lower than average volume. IBD rankings ok, not great. This is on my watch list, but I am going to look for more solid opportunities.
$FRPT: just starting to make positive EPS this year, but last Q was a loss. Good overall EPS estimated for 24/25. RS strong, but sloping down at the moment. EPS out of the way. There was a nice flat consolidation before this cup base formed (not recognized by MarketSurge - too short?) Maybe it is putting on a handle now, that would be nice. My wife keeps wanting me to subscribe to this or “The Farmers Dog” for our Rottie, but it was going to be about $15/day, which is like me eating lobster every day, so that makes me skeptical on earnings in an economy where consumers are pulling in. Everyone loves there dogs, but there are limits.
$ONON: I own a little as an early buy. Would add more if it breaks above the high of that 8/13 spike on the market FTD. Would buy bigger chunks on a good breakout. Shoes are one of those retail segments that can turn into a monster when they are the fad. Crocks, Sketchers, Uggs all had great runs, why not this. As interest rates go down, the dollar should weaken if that is a concern. Should. RS is strong as are most of the IBD growth Rankings. I want to read Lakedog’s post, it looks good from a glance.
$TGTX: Original “breakout” was weak and failed, but It is breaking out strong today and is now above the top of the buy zone, so I have to say this was a good pick
$NBIX Found very good support at the 50dma on ugly Monday and gapped up on earnings the next day. So that was a “re-breakout” in my own words. It has support at 21dma and is well above the 50dma. I would buy it here with the expectation that it would re-test the post-earnings high. I would then add more if it breaks out from that price. I am trying to think more like Webby and consider how far away my stop loss would be. Webby is a swing trader, but the rationale still applies. That said, the 50dma is 2.9% away, so if it falls below that, I would sell.
But, Webby would also note the RS is below the RS trendlines and he would like to see it go above those.
So, of all the stocks listed, I think I like NBIX the most. It has the best stop loss
position, and the best IBD rankings. Maybe I will take a bite.
1 Like
I like Krys better. Although it isn’t breaking out strongly it has strong fund participation and it’s revenue growth and earnings are explosive. I have noticed this before and can’t explain it but IBD is calculating the earnings growth for next quarter incorrectly. Could be because in 2023 it was negative.
I can see why you like NBIX also so I decided to take a position in it. I am buying 1/4 positions and planning on weeding out the bad ones and adding to the good ones.
$ASPN: I was going to post that and say “I told you not to sell” The IBD team would say “boy, that is a long way from the 50dma, so it is too extended for me, I think I will wait and see if it forms a handle”. I don’t know why it had the huge jump unless it was short covering.
$LLY: I really want to get in it and am kicking myself form being a chicken in the $600 area. Anytime someone talks about competition from a pill vs injection or something like that, Cramer comes back and says LLY is working on that too. Even if medicare put on limits, they would make a mint. They would probably route supply to full-price paying customers too. If it had fallen below $718 on ugly Monday, it would be a Stage 1 base again. It is putting on a nice little handle that needs a few more days. May want to wait for that, or buy some now and the rest on a real breakout.
Bought $TDG today. It is an old “friend” that made me a good profit earlier. My alert was for breaking above the downward trendline like Webby talks about. I bought a 1/3 position, which I usually would not do as an early buy, but I have “faith” and that never fails.
Pretty strong rankings. RS 86 and pointing up, but not fully above RS trendlines (should be tomorrow). Vol is +40% today. I think I have faith in the market, the Fed cutting and what the Fed will say at Jackson Hole. So maybe I am itching to buy.
I added another nibble to NVDA and bought another 1/6 of CAVA on strength. I want to add another 1/6 now, but vol is low and it is not really a breakout so I will check back near the close and see how I feel. SHAK got hurt by a downgrade and a poo-pooing of restaurants by some analyst. CAVA dipped but came back to be positive and still rising.
The long pink lines are some previous highs I wanted to see taken out.