I was stopped out of TMDX today after it dropped below the 50 day.
2 Likes
As noted, bought half a position in $WING yesterday. Great sales and EPS growth, strong IBD ranks, group is weak at #103 of 197. But has been a long term leader. Very disciplined management with strict controls on who gets to buy a franchise. No strong direct competition for chicken wings.
Restarted a position in $MOD on 9/11 and am up to 5/6 position. Now it has run too far to add unless there is a tight pattern or something like that. Very Strong IBD rankings, fund ownership is very good, Group #23/197. Stage 1 base. All good.
1 Like
How many positions are you carrying Pete? I am at 8 positions now.
Alab is starting to move up.
Mu having huge day Was in it early but stopped out. Glad I was, I would have been down big.
ARM crossed it’s pivot.
SMH the chip stock etf just crossed the pivot of a double bottom (Not technically correct).
TQQQ the 3x pronasdaq etf just passed the pivot of a double bottom (not technically correct).
I don’t like Chinese stocks because I have been burned to many times. But I do like making money. So I figure with the tools I have now I can trade them instead of holding them long term. With that in mind I bought PDD as it was going over the 150 sma. I put a 10 percent stop on it and let’s see how it does.
3 Likes
• Friday Video without Webby this week
○ Naz power trend re-entered on Thursday
○ CAVA: down 2.6% on Friday. Held above 21dma. Maybe it has been wedging up too consistently and the Friday dip may have shaken out recent buyers. On the weekly, this looks very strong. Webby believes this is become a long term market leader.
○ RYAN: Forming a cup base. Popped up off the 50dma recently then had a big gap up. After that it faded a few days, but on lighter volume. Would like to see a handle and then breakout…
○ LLY: Sell signal as it broke below 50dma.
RE: ho
I have 10 positions in my IBD account, but not all full. The screen shot is ordered in size of cost basis. CAVA is a full position and NVDA is 1/3 position. My account is up 18% YTD and SPY is up 20.3%. I have almost a full position of cash hoping to have buy points on my current partial position.
I do carry some positions outside of the account. I sometimes refer to this as “buying on margin” since it is above my allocation. I have a 1/2 position in WING in my old “Simon Sez” account I gave up on.
I also use IBD breakouts and rules to trade around core positions in some old MF portfolios that I no longer subscribe to. Most of the time those are smaller positions and I don’t mention them because I might apply slightly different rules. Such as SE, AAON, LOB, QTWO, PJT, META, WD, DOCN, SPOT, TSM.
RE: ARM, yes I like it and am watching. I am not heavy in AI so could buy it.
KWEB, etc. I feel the same, the Chinese Gov really screwed with companies and hated profits, like all good commies. But now the are clearly embarrassed by their failures and have lowered interest rates, relaxed regulations, re-allowed mergers and other nasty capitalistic stuff. I think this is for real and they won’t meddle again for a while. Much safer now. David Tepper said he had bought big into China right before this and got lucky, but he is now buying more. Other thank drafting Bryce Young, he is pretty smart and obviously rich.
2 Likes
Ryan Specialty Stock
Wholesale broker and managing underwriter Ryan Specialty Holdings leads the Insurance-Brokers Group according to the IBD Stock Checkup. The Chicago-based insurance company on Sept. 16 completed the acquisition of the property and casualty managing general underwriters, owned by Ethos Specialty Insurance, from Ascot Group for an undisclosed amount.
Ryan Specialty topped Q2 expectations on Aug. 1 and lifted its 2024 revenue growth outlook to a range of 13% to 14%.
BMO upgraded Ryan Specialty to outperform on Tuesday, noting a strong EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth runway, according to The Fly. The firm increased its EBITDA estimates by more than 6% based on a combination of higher profit margins and accretive acquisition expectations. Ryan’s purchases of higher-margin businesses and “healthy” double-digit organic growth appears to give the company a “fog-free runway” to continue margin expansions in the coming quarters. BMO lifted its price target on RYAN stock to 75 from 65.
RYAN stock has moved up the right side of shallow cup base with a 69.03 buy point, matching its all-time high. Shares bounced strongly off their 50-day moving average on Tuesday, which could have been an early entry opportunity.
But RYAN stock pulled back the rest of the week, indicating a new handle could be on the way in a couple more sessions.
The handle looks to be shaping up with a 68.47 buy point, but still needs a few days to form.
RYAN stock has soared 53% in 2024.
1 Like
Note that CAVA and WING found support and 21dma today.
The market sold off on Powell’s comments, somewhat dashing hopes for another 50bps cut. It did pop right at the end, but that might be end of the month window dressing.
October is when mutual funds take their losses. Look for stocks that are way down for the year and expect them to get worse. Bottom fishing my work at end of the month, but by then you may want to wait for election results
A number of restaurant stocks are performing well along with Texas Roadhouse, including Cava (CAVA), Wingstop (WING) and Shake Shack (SHAK).
Among the best companies to watch on the stock market today are Arista Networks (ANET), Spotify (SPOT), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) and Wingstop (WING). Spotify shares are falling back into buy range above a consolidation’s 359.38 entry. Amazon shares are approaching a 195.37 entry in a cup with handle.
.
3 Likes
$RYAN breaks above downtrend while market declines
I suspect this will look like an overreaction to the Iran attack and the coming retaliation. Hard to buy breakout stocks on a day like this, but RYAN is interesting.
2 Likes
Bought some more of $PDD as it came over the trendline of $152.22. It still hasn’t popped out of a stage 1 base but I have done well on this so far. I now have a little over a full position. Moved my stop up to $130.00.
2 Likes
RE: MELI - someone downgraded to hold, but with $2400 target 
$PDD: nice work, like the stop.
$VERX:
Had to buy this. Great EPS growth, RS91 with blue dot on weekly. Very strong IBD rankings, growing fund ownership and top ranked growth funds own it.
I have too many half-positions that are out of a buying range, so decided to go for this.
4 Likes
I like Verx, saw it today but I have to sell something to buy something now.
I am trying to position my portfolio into bigger positions on the companies I like the most. Cava, PDD(Can’t believe I am saying that), App, Fix, and NVDA. Tsla’s big party on OCTOBER, 10th is something to watch, just not sure which way it will cut. More of a gamble and I do not have a position right now because it’s Fundamental’s really are terrible.
2 Likes
I would not make a bet. Elon is good at hyping something and then under-delivering. It has made a pretty nice move into this news and its recent deliver numbers missed.
$PDD - I did happen to go against my own advice and buy PDD a while back when it was already performing well back in 8/30/2023 as it was breaking out of a 7 month cup with handle. It did not act well and I ditched it with a small loss. It was around $100 so I could have made a nice gain by holding. China has made an about face and probably won’t be kidnapping any more CEOs for a while so I think you have a chance to make good money. Kudos for acting quickly.
○ NVDA stock rose slightly overnight after CEO Huang told CNBC that “Blackwell is in full production, and demand for Blackwell is insane and "on-schedule. Everyone wants to be the first to get their hands on it.” Nvidia is expected to start selling Blackwell products in the fourth quarter. The new processors deliver 2.5 times the performance of its Nvidia’s Hopper chips which debuted two years ago.
○ Cava stock edged up 0.4% to 122.92 after falling to 118.62 in the morning, briefly undercutting the 21-day line. The recent pullback so far has been a healthy shakeout after shares wedged up for a few weeks to the Sept. 23 record high. A move above the Oct. one high could offer an aggressive entry or a place to add shares.
SCCO had a big move and is building a handle.
3 Likes
What do you consider your weakest stock in that group? Another way to say it is, if you saw a great stock breaking out, which would you sell to move into a better stock. This is an exercise IBD says you should to at least once a week (rank all holdings)
2 Likes
That is what I am thinking too Pete.
I think PDD is a great contrarian play to the U.S markets. I think if the war goes to Iran, PDD will do fine while the U.S market might take a hit. The weakest of those I would consider Fix but I also own ASTH so that is the one I would sell to get more cash.
1 Like