$VIK swing trade post-analysis.
I bought this after a nice bounce off a double bottom. I added to it when it retook the 21dma. The next day it rose above the 50dma, but then fell below it. As a swing trade I thought this was a bad sign. But you can see from that chart that if I had waited for it to fall below the lower 21dma, then I would still be in it and have a nice profit instead of the small profit I made.
If I still owned it at this point, I would have seen good support at the 50dma and a bounce off the 50 yesterday with a break above the recent small consolidation today. I like would have used today as an “early buy” point and would have a nice cushion from my earlier swing buys. I would be technically converting this to a position trade with the hopes of a breakout to add to it.
The lesson for me should be that one failure to stay above the 50 on the way up is not enough to sell out a swing position with a positive profit.
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Spent the rest of my IBD money on $VERX today, taking me to a 3/4 position. It “proved” itself today with another high volume up day while the market was going down.
$AEM was in my top-tier last week, but has been performing poorly. It has support at the 50dma, but I will probably sell it if it goes below. I am sitting on a meager 5.52% profit and don’t want to lose all of that.
CAVA is doing well, but $WING is a little weak, maybe building a handle. $TXRH looks similar to WING.
$CAVA is stock of the day at IBD
Cava, Stock Of The Day, Boasts ‘Magic Formula,’ Eyes New Buy Point | Investor’s Business Daily (investors.com)
And the bullet points are:
- Finding support at 21-day line after pullback
- 128.18 buy point from short consolidation. Early entry of 125.66
- Earnings, sales growth booming
I would be happy to add on a breakout and have more than a 100% position. (Selling AEM for cash)
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Sold my half position in $AEM as is slips below 50dma. Put that into a half position of $VIK as it makes a second high vol move up in a row. That means I am probably a sucker and should let it settle, but I didn’t. Back down to no cash in my IBD account.
$SHAK nearing a breakout and $TXRH bouncing around buy point. $WING is (hopefully) building a handle. $CAVA looks good, up 2.29% but on lower volume.
Update: Chart of AEM trade total of 4.38% gain on all shares (sold some, added some back later, sold all). I suppose some might have sold when it fell back below the $83.50 high, but it found support at 21dma, so I felt I should hold. I don’t think that was a wrong decision. Gold is still hitting highs, so the fact that this keeps going down is a change of character and I don’t know why, so need to sell for that reason too.
Recent $VERX buy…
And $VIK buy
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Moving my stop up on PDD. I have heard rumblings that the infusion of cash into the Chinese market might not be as big as was hoped. Just rumors but I want to protect my gains if they turn out to be true.
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Market Status: Hurricane coming. I am evacuating Monday after lunch, going to east coast of Florida. Have not done any weekend reviews, but Friday was nice, though volume was lower.
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Stay safe Pete. That is a crazy Hurricane how it is coming in.
Arm. Look at this. Notice the VCP pattern? Notice how the volume is getting very low? When this breaks out over $149.93, I want to see it in high volume of at least 100 percent. As you can see I have bought into it but have been stopped out. I think it is an important company in the new AI opportunity but it sure hasn’t been acting like it.
That would be a big breakout, but not unrealistic. Great IBD ratings to boot. Had a nice break above the 50dma that would have been tempting to start a position and then tested it without falling below. higher highs, higher lows. Weekly charts shows big swings that might indicate more shakeouts coming. You are right, without a huge volume breakout it could be a dangerous buy.
Is MU giving us a free earnings pop?
Buy next move above 200dma with a stop if it falls below?
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Alab popping on news they came out with fabric switches that are designed to work better with AI.
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Here is App. It has been shooting up. I think it is one of the winners in this bull market. I am hoping it forms a sideways action or consolidation at this level so I can pick up some more. I have a 7 percent position in it but would like it at 15 percent if it acts correctly, like I think it will.
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APP could be a big winner. Good to wait and not chase. Bill always warned to not dilute your basis too much with big adds. I don’t know how he thinks about a big mover like this. If it forms a base and breaks out again, would he add a new full position?
I added to $WING on 10/1 when it bounced off 21dma and then on 10/4, but they were small adds. I am down a little over 5% on little bigger than 1/2 position. This is my weakest IBD holding and I almost sold it today. But instead, I added to $VIK as it made a strong move up on news that made the entire cruise ship group pop. I was very skilled at buying it at the top. This is in my non-IBD account since I was out of cash in the IBD account. All this “margin” says I am very bullish and possibly foolish. I also added to $CAVA on the move to new highs. I looks like it has a mini cup with handle, though MarketSurge does not recognize it. The question I have to ask myself is “why am I holding WING when I also own the strongest stock in the restaurant group”. Seems wrong.
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That is what I asked myself Pete and is why I just went all in on Cava instead. It has been hard to add to APP because it hasn’t formed a base to add more but it is still early in it’s run having only had a stage one base. It it forms a shelf I will be definitely adding more.
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Alab is now past a 20 percent gain in a week. According to IBD it must be held for 8 weeks now. I wouldn’t add anything to it until a base forms.
Some interesting companies showing up on my screens.
$AS
A little to far out of it’s stage one base.
$Celh. I like this company but it has been smacked down hard. I have been watching it to see if it will pic up. Nice volume today. But it hasn’t formed a base
$SYM I do not know anything about this company but I like that it is in the robotic warehouse space. Need to look at it more. It hasn’t formed a base. But nice volume.
ZS looks like it is ready to break out of a cup pattern. Nice volume.
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Andy, be careful with the rules. The 8-week hold rule applies to a proper breakout from a proper pattern. It does not apply to a great bounce off the bottom that you happened to buy somewhere along the way. Use your regular trading rules on this.
$AS is past the buy point and is too risky by IBD rules
The other stocks you are highlighting are not IBD qualified stocks, look more like bottom fishing.
$UBER is a strong breakout today on weak $TSLA robotaxi hype. I sold $WING to buy it.
$ROAD makes Bill’s point that 40% of breakouts revisit the buy point, so buy as close to breakout as possible…
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$FAST strong breakout on earnings, but poor IBD ratings and poor RS
$CRDO much better, but should have been bought yesterday
Josh Brown banged the table on $UBER yesterday, said it was down on fears of Robotaxi, but that could be 10 years away and it should be a buy. I like him, he picks lots of good growth stocks (IOT, GLW, SHAK, etc.) He is often on the CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report.
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Pete, do you believe that the marketsurge always identifies a pattern or do you think it is mostly able to identify a pattern? I think IBD has a hard time with IPO stocks. Read the book the trade cycle, it has some great points about IPO stocks although the whole book is a little light.
A stage one base usually starts at the bottom. 
