I have been Looking at those Pete, I already have a position in RDDT. I bought it on 11/20 Still holding it.
I have been watching Step. I missed it as it hit the 50 SMA today though. I have a buy in on it though to hopefully pick it up tomorrow if it dips again. Look at the way it has been acting. Looks to me when it hits the 50 SMA is the time to buy. I might get another chance tomorrow.
gThat was a good buy, software is strong right now.
I was thinking RDDT was about to give an add/buy breakout…
I am extremely low on cash and can’t buy this if it breaks out. I would have to sell MARA at a slight loss, which is probably the right thing to do.
I would hang onto Mara, Bitcoin just went over 100,000 it should take off.
Good point on Rddt, I wasn’t thinking of it that way.
I sold TLN for 7.88% gain. Bought Step at $61.85 at the bottom of it’s range as it went under the 50SMA. Bought MSTR on the Bitcoin hype as bitcoin crossed the 100,000 mark. For some reason it dipped and I bought it at $413.75. It is very Volatile. I put a 5% stop on Step and MSTR I left naked. I expect the swings to be wild. It is a pure FOMO play.
INOD going above a trendline. I expect this to pull back into the flag where it could possibly be bought. It has good volume right now and looks good I just think it will get one more shake out.
Bought WVE at $14.38, the 21EMA, going very tight. Set stop at 5%. This is a broken HTF the flag went to long.
Sold all of my APP at $411.85 up 336.88%. Bought more ALAB for $119.40, More RDDT for $162.10, and started a position again in Sezl at $361 with a 5% stop.
I think the MSTR trade is a solid idea. I hold MSTY which trades MSTR options (calls) and I have just watched the MSTY price steadily climb since it was $20 range…doc
Bravo. The hardest part is getting out while the getting is good. This was not just luck either, you made that last add at a rational place and you kept trailing stop losses.
For SEZL, I would say that you should have waited to see it move above the 21dma, or even close above it. That would give you a good stop trigger. Makes me wonder if there is just a little FOMO there?
Bought 1/3 $META Wed and added another 1/3 Friday. +25% volume on breakout is below par, but I was also looking for a “regular” stock to keep me from chasing to much momo 
Very good IBD rankings. Moved above 50dma Tuesday, but I was not looking then. Bought the formal breakout Wednesday. MAG-7 seem to be making a comeback of sorts.
No Pete if you look at the chart I gave it is at the bottom of the consolidation. I put my stop down 5% where it would be outside the Consolidation Pattern. I like doing this in this market. I haven’t had a lot of luck playing the break outs because they seem to drop back in.
I have been trying to see if I can get an edge lately by buying HTF’s lower in their Flag. Like LMND, I bought it at $45.60 and it rose but it isn’t over yet. The flag is now going on it’s 3rd week, if you do not count the pole(Not sure if I should count it or not, something I need to talk over) Anyway It could keep consolidating for 2 more weeks or take off. Who knows.
That is the Daily.
That is the weekly.
Others I like and am watching.
APP, I sold it but still watching it. I would like it to consolidate because it feels like it is getting over it’s skii’s but who knows. What had me concerned was the Ants. When I see those I think pullback. Maybe I am wrong, I have not back tested it. I really don’t know how to do that but it just tells me things are getting hot.
INOD. Still trying to get into this. I want this to go back down to the bottom of the flag.
MPTI, I like the looks of this and who doesn’t need more guided missiles. Seems like a theme these days.
KVYO, This is a new Bright shiny IPO and it just finished it’s base. Everyone likes new right? I like my base better than IBD’s.
ZETA. This is sloppy, really sloppy. But look at the fund participation. Plus it looks like it might go back over it’s 50SMA which is a good sign. But this could be hard to hold.
CRDO. Pete did good on this one and it looks like a winner. We just need it to flag out and consolidate. I could see it going a little higher before it does that but keep an eye on it.
RIGL This is on the fourth week of a flag. Like the looks of it. If it hits the 21EMA that could be a good sign.
TVTX. This is kind of messy but it is consolidating nicely.
BE should be on the radar. Going on the second week of a flag. Like the looks of it.
SEI still forming the pole. It makes proppant for fracking. I think this could be a winner in the next 4 years. Not that they are going to do more fracking but everyone will be talking about it so it will be front of mind.
Dave is a HTF and is in the 4th week of it’s flag. It is looking really good.
Last but not least Sezl. It is in the last week of it’s flag and if I bought correctly towards the bottom of the flag we should see it jump this week. We will see.
My first post here, hat tip to all. I’ve been reading all your commentary for months and have benefited. Thanks. I cut my teeth trading as a hobby in the latter '90s tech boom, studying IBD ideas and theory. I love reading charts and was hoping to talk it over some here or there.
I wanted to note a recent buy I think deserves another mention around here. On a previously posted Mike Webster video, $SQ was highlighted and I bought in after taking a close look at the chart.
It appeared to have formed something in the vein of a big Cup on a looong 3 1/2 year base, with a left side high of 93.19 on the price label. You know how IBD says, the longer the base the more powerful the breakout, potentially.
Early November $SQ had an explosive eye-popping break from the doldrums and rocketed from around 75 to 94. A large enough and rapid enough gain to perhaps trigger the IBD eight-week-hold rule?
I addition, it may be worth noting as a further indicator of possible long term upward trend momentum, the 50 SMA crossed the 200 SMA precipitating said explosive break. The so-called “Golden Cross.”
Thanksgiving week it formed something like a Handle on declining volume, whereat I struck with a partial buy in at $90.52.
I set my stop loss at 8% below buy price, although because it wasn’t a proper breakout from a proper base, I don’t believe, the stop loss was probably not IBD theory correct, but arbitrary.
I bought in on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and it sold off one more day on the Friday half day session.
It then gapped up on Monday’s open on big volume to around 92, breached the 93.19 price point intraday, and so I went all in and filled the position full and reset my stop loss.
It then reversed course intraday and closed right near the low, but above the gap and with a respectable gain for the day, and so still looking sound.
Aside from the spot light thrown on it by Webster of IBD, whose opinion I hold in high esteem, I really like the look of this chart myself and its recent action.
Welcome Mycelia, I believe you are right. It went up 25% which would trigger the eight week hold rule. The rule states it should run up 25% in 3 weeks from your buy point which triggers the 8 week hold. I know Pete was talking about Sq and I think he traded it.
What happened to LSF? Another day, another shake out.
I bought a speculative partial position in the base at 7.99 when it bounced on volume, because I liked the chart.
When it broke out the other day I filled the position at 10.45; ten cents above the previous high. It started to run, then had a reversal.
But volume was low and so the break was suspect, and it did fail tripping my 8% stop loss and shaking me out of my second buy.
I have to confess that I don’t pay close enough attention to the market itself in genera. I’ll buy a break out on a down market day. Follow throughs on the indices are great, but I don’t wait if something looks decent but the market otherwise isn’t rallying.
I’m still holding the partial position bought at 7.99. I suppose I won’t fill it if it breaks unless volume is sufficient, like +40% above average or whatever.
First, welcome aboard Ron Burgandy, hope the San Diego weather is nice.
Indeed, it did activate the 8-week hold rule. $SQ broke out on Nov 6 when the market was celebrating the election of a market friendly and business friendly candidate. However, it reported earnings on Nov 7 and did fall back and test the 50dma on Nov 8. This turned out to be good fortune as it had a strong upside reversal off the 50dma. This is something Webby and IBD often cite as a buy signal. I was lucky enough to buy that day, but near the highs. The next day it blasted past the top of the buy zone and IBD traders that were watching the market would have been buying as it showed continued strength, I was not watching.
I had bought this as a swing trade and thus decided I should sell out on 11/14 on a second down day. This was foolish as a swing trade that blasts through a buy zone has to be held and converted to a position trade. The next day was a small upside reversal day that Webby calls a setup day. This is because it changed the expectations to be more up days. I was able to buy it back the next day and add to it a few days later.
This was a cup with handle but as you can see in the chart, it started in mid-March after a failed breakout from a Stage 1 base (thus making this a stage 1 as well.
That is a very good observation, IBD tells us that low volume declines show that institutional holders are not willing to jump out. But being Thanksgiving week, it might also mean big traders are just taking a break. Nevertheless, that was an opportunity, but I did not add on 12/2 when it gapped up above the downward trend line.
You can see in my notes I cite Josh Brown, who appears frequently on the CNBC “Half-time Report” at noon. I like Josh as he is clearly growth oriented and has overlap with stocks doing well by IBD standards (and on my watchlists or own lists). He bought on 12/3 and noted there was a big insider buy and that they held 9000 bitcoin. Combine that with the strong IBD rankings and the resistance to today’s sell off in some “hot” stocks and you get a lot of reasons to keep giving this room to run.
I set my stop loss at 8% below buy price, although because it wasn’t a proper breakout from a proper base, I don’t believe, the stop loss was probably not IBD theory correct, but arbitrary.
The IBD standard is 7-8%, but that is from buying a breakout from a proper base. For your entry point, you can survive a trip back to the 21dma, but if it slices below that, you might reconsider. One important thing I am trying to learn to do is “be a goldfish” as Ted Lasso would say and as Webby teaches. Which is to say, never be afraid to buy it back when its character changes back to positive after you were forced to sell. Treat is as if you had never owned it.
This sounds like a swing trade and not a position trade, so IBD would say you have to treat it differently. It did look like a small cup base and there are times when I would probably buy this as a swing trade, but it suffered an ugly downside reversal that day. Webby would say that was an expectation breaker. You expected the breakout was telling you it is a strong stock and therefore the price would keep doing well. But that same day the price told you it did not have any strength. People sold into strength instead of buying more. In retrospect it is obvious to say that was a sell because it continued down, but the Webby approach is essentially a good trading rule and he would have sold quickly.
If you are still holding, you have to ask yourself why. Do you have real logic? Is there a technical reason you see? If you had no shares, would you be catching this falling knife. Andy has been emphasizing risk management and stop loss limit orders and those have locked in gains from him several times. This is very important for traders to implement. If not, emotions take over and you are lost.
Pete
P.S. I was tempted to hate this stock because Laid Hamilton is just trying to use his name to sell nutritional food, and his name is not that big outside of surfing circles, but it does show very strong EPS and Rev growth over the last 4 quarter. But still expecting negative (GAP) earnings through 2025. But that green earnings line (non-GAAP) on the weekly is nice.
Felt like I had to sell $AMSC today.
Sold entire position for 5.78% loss after three bad down days in a row. It will likely find support at 50dma and make me feel regret, but it was my weakest holding and I wanted a little cash after today’s action. Closed near bottom of range. The early buy kept me in last time it sold off, but I really hated the action this time.
That first down day was a downside reversal from a new high. Should have been a bigger yellow flag for me. Day 2 was a drop below 21dma on higher volume and it closed at bottom of range. Perhaps I should have sold that most recent buy on day two and let my early buy ride until it closed below 50dma.
Live and (maybe) learn.
I did not sell anything else. My IBD portfolio was down a painful 4.67% today, but is still up 30% for the year. Another day like this and I start to trail the S&P again.
I was stopped out of LMND at $43.22 a 5.22% loss, I was also stopped out of Step at $58.85 a 4.85% loss, and I was stopped out of Sezl at 340.80 a 5.60% loss. I sold FTAI for a 3.38% gain.
