Hey Pete, Have you noticed IBD volume bars are not realistic? I have been playing around with Logarithmic and Arithmetic. Both don’t seem to do justice. For instance INOD on 12/9 posted more than 5 million in volume and on 12/10 it posted half of that. But the volume bars don’t seem to show that realistically.
Was stopped out of Duol. 8.22% gain.
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Andy, I have not. That is disturbing. I will try to remember to call. Or you can ping Webby on x.
I think I will call and talk to them. It makes it tough to see when the volume is drying up. I started thinking about it when Lakedog was posting his charts. The volume should all look the same. I suspect it is because the chart is tied to the volume study. If they were separate they would look correct I believe.
I do some IBD trading around my old core positions in MF recs from long ago. I sold some on 12/10 to raise cash in case the market was going to go down further. It appears the CPI (or PPI?) saved it today. Here is what I did.
$WIX was a very strong stock and bounced up off the 21dma, but I sold it anyway. Software had been doing well, but I had to pick some things to sell. I have plenty like this (HUBS, TEAM, SHOP, etc) So not foolish to reduce exposure after these good runs.
$PJT was a nice diversification from tech (financial). Made good money from the breakout and it was in the profit taking zone. Found support at 21dma, but apparently I did not care.
$APPF was a very new and small buy. Those are some of the first to jettison if you think things may go south.
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Have built a full position in $META over last few days as it broke out on “ok” volume. Looks like some money is flowing back into MAG7 and I don’t want to try and grab too many rocket ships so this ties up some of my money.
Bought a tiny bit more $SPOT as it broke above a short consolidation. It has fallen to 21dma and bounced, so I should buy a little more if tomorrow shows continued strength.
The market seemed to have a change in character today, so I wanted to buy some stocks to replace those I sold yesterday. I almost bought HOOD back, but these two were more appealing
$PSTG crushed earnings and had a breakaway gap, so I was looking for a buy point. I planned to buy it at the magenta line if it held, but it did not. Its decline has been low volume, so that is good. I feel that Webby would all today a setup day, I bought and may add tomorrow above that magenta line.
I have been looking for a way to get into $RDDT and missed the chance at that little breakout (pocket pivot??). It came down below that yesterday and gapped up above it today, so I bought. My stop should be the low of yesterday.
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MSTR is being considered to be added to the Nasdaq 100 on Friday.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/microstrategy-cracks-nasdaq-100-bloomberg
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Good move. META broke above its 50dma a couple weeks ago, and the trend is up. I’ve been a long-term investor in this one, and am up 166% so far. META got way undervalued toward the end of 2022.
Another one with a great chart. I bought RDDT around $65 in September, and am shocked that it’s up 155% since. This is literally a Web 1.0 company, but has huge potential for growth in advertising.
Yes, PSTG is a recent buy for me. I’m down about 4% on this, but will hold and see what happens.
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Hey Pete I talked to Sunny on IBD and he told me that it is a known issue and that he would share it with the IT department. So you can’t trust the earnings estimates because it is flawed and now you can’t trust the volume bars because they are flawed. 
Sunny said the way he handles it is that he just goes by price action and the algorithm of volume on the top right corner for the day. I am thinking that is crazy. I like the product but those two things look like big flaws to me and should have been addressed right away. Especially for the price.
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Does anyone here use Deepvue?
Andy, totally agree. Bill was all about price and volume. Webby says price has been polluted by algos and computer trading, but still.
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Stopped out of WVE loss of 1.67%.
$GVA presents a conundrum. It has entered the profit taking zone, gone above it, and is new coming down below it. I am tempted to sell. But, IBD also says add on the first one or two trips to the 50dma. It had a momentary one with a big upside reversal on the same day. It is about to test now. The downside volume last few days it troublesome.
Santa Claus theory says the market will be going up through the end of the year, so I should hold and buy on a successful test of the 50. My CAVA and NVDA are below the 50dma, so that probably makes this my third weakest stock. I will no doubt wait to see what happens at the 50.
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Purchased CG at $52.70 stop at $50.10. Sitting on the 21EMA 4% above the cup in a VCP pattern tightening up. Set my stop below the cup.
I am no expert at Minervini’s definition of VCP patterns, but have the general impression it’s largely triangles and pennants in consolidations. I need to read about the 4% relative to the cup to understand better. For the sake of learning and discussing, let me look at CG with some other technical perspectives. I absolutely am not making a prediction nor stating one approach is superior. Just throwing it all out for discussion.
The Green dashed lines are formed by a trendline at lows of the stock. The higher dashed green is a duplicate of that defined lower line, just moved up to see if it fits a channel, which it obviously does not. The solid blue line is a drawn trendline for the top of the move. The blue and dashed green supports an asymmetrical triangle/ascending triangle or pennant (pick your terminology).
I marked a blue line on the PPO that shows it is trending down, so combined with the price action blue line trending up, shows divergence. Bearish divergence. This is NOT a trade signal, but a warning (could have said red flag, but enough already!) that the uptrend is starting to exhaust. The RSI blue line merely shows an area that CG likes to break. It is hinting at support.
Did not show on this chart, but CG is clearly in a squeeze pattern. A bit extended for daily, but in a nice 4 hour squeeze. Note, it is not in a weekly squeeze. That all adds up to say price is building up pressure, or coiling energy as John Carter would say. It is likely to undergo a short days to week breakout, but with momentum suggesting a downtrend.
Candlewise, it’s a bit of a mess. The relatively strong upside candle on the 11th was countermanded the next day with an equally strong down candle. Friday and today generate a bearish harami. Usually the first day of a bearish harami is up, with a subsequent down candle contained within the body of the first. But it can still be considered a harami with both being down. Solid indecision.
Of note, VIX is still under 15 but pushing up a bit. And price is indeed revisiting the 21 ema, where it has moved before. Actually, the 34 is a better fit, but makes the same point.
So, nothing in the technical signs gives me a really strong feeling. But there are enough signs of indecision and possible weakness, this is another one I would absolutely wait for confirmation of direction. I have no stake in this one, but eager to learn to see what it does.
Lakedog
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I am not an expert either. Great summation Lakedog. When I bought this the volume was right around 1 million. So it looked like it would finish lower than the proceeding day but that didn’t happen. But I still think I am in a good spot and have my stop set. Here is a little bit on the VCP Pattern.
So what I like to see is a contraction in the volume with the price getting really tight. I could be early because I didn’t wait for the pop but the problem with that is just about every stock today that outran everyone trying to get in. Everyone had to chase the stocks. So I don’t mind being a little early. Let’s see what happens in the next few day. The fundamentals look really good.
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Your point hits the problem squarely on the head. I’ve been looking through old files trying to find my old notes on approaches to gap-ups. The problem is the milieu that stocks are stewing in. Old rules likely don’t apply. But it’s sort of a nice problem to have…
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Bought back App at $328.50 put stop at $312.00 5% below the 21ema
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Finally sold my last shares of $NVDA I had traded since Nov 2023. That lot of shares made 155%, overall with all the trading around that my returns were only 39.15% Now my oldest IBD holdings are GVA from July 2024.
Sold half of $IBKR at good profit. Has been living below 21dma, which is not a big deal, but Fed announces tomorrow and having a little more cash might be good. Can buy it back if it bounces over 21dma on the news. Maybe it will base and give me a new breakout.
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