See, you should always buy before earnings…
See, you should never buy before earnings…
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$SNOW holding up and living around the buy point. Up day volume is much strong than down day volume. Price continues to remain above 21dma, with 18 sessions in a row where the low of the day is above the 21dma. Webby would like that.
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I am really liking the looks of ADMA. It is sitting on the 40sma, the rs line is holding up nicely, number of funds going up and just had a 3 week tight. Notice how it bounces when the 40 day is met. It gives you a nice risk profile that if I am wrong will get you out without to much loss. I have a position
Oh and I should say it looks like it is forming a cup and is at the bottom of pattern
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Amba is looking interesting. Volume is really tight and it is almost above all of it’s overhead. Sitting in a consolidation pattern right now and funds are accumulating. I have no position.
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My rule for buying before earnings is at Holding stocks through earnings
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I am wanting to add to $APP, but I can’t see a place where Webby might do it, so for now I will hold off for a breakout or handle.
I took off 15% of my META shares after a good run. Offensive sell into strength. Market will have some tariff volatility and my give me a new entry.
I thought about the same for $SPOT, but I saw my note that it qualified for the 8-week-hold rule in recent breakout, so I will hold.
Sold almost half my $ONON today. DECK and SKX tanked on earnings, and ONON was dragged down and is below 50dm on higher volume. Took a small loss on recent shares but kept my longer term shares, though I may rethink that.
$DAVE back into buy zone after Friday dip.
$DSGX had a promising breakout on strong volume. Strong IBD rankings. (I did not buy)
$AFRM gapped up on earnings Friday and could have been bought in the buy zone, above that buy area today. Strong stocks on a weak day can be good buys.
I still love $CAVA, but TXRH, SHAK, CMG, SG doing very poorly, below 200dma, so that has me worried. CAVA starting to form what looks to be a cup base.
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Keep an eye on Alab. They reported today and the fools sold it off but coming back now. They had a real strong quarter and stronger guidance.
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Yep, want to see it above 50dma before I buy it back.
$AXON is a long-term leader approaching a second stage 2 cup base breakout. Here’s why you might want to buy on breakout…
It started as Taser, then added AXON body camera. They have a subscription service called Evidence.com where the police can store all body camera video, which only gets bigger each year. They have broadened out to Federal agencies, I see their footage form CBP on the border and I am sure it is elsewhere and growing.
The have added a new (subscription) service for generative AI called “First Draft” that they claim saves officers an hour a day by creating the first draft of their report from the audio in the body camera footage. They are adding a new AI service that can translate 100 foreign languages in real-time as they talk to people and it is run through the camera connected to a datacenter.
Axon completed its acquisition of Dedrone in October, highlighting its ability to “detect, track, and when necessary, neutralize rogue drones in real time.”
In the November letter, Axon said that, in conjunction with an autonomous drone docking solution from Skydio, it now enables fully remote-controlled launches, landings, recharging and “airspace deconfliction” for beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) operations.
Further, Axon’s live drone feeds are integrated into its Fusus real-time crime center display, providing “unified situational awareness.”
This is my second or third largest position and I am strongly considering an add on the breakout.
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For those still trading in this choppy market, $SHOP provided opportunity today. After initially falling on earnings, it reversed up and finished back in the buy zone on vol 442% above average. Excellent growth rankings…
I had to sell my $OWL, unlike some other financials recently, it missed earnings and fell below the 50dma. I sold late and lost 9.19% on a full position. Rules were to sell 2 days ago after falling below 50dma on bad earnings. Dope.
Also sold all my VERX as it sliced below 50dma on high volume. Got out with a 23.62% gain. I think I handled this well. I bought on the previous base and then after this current base was forming, I was able to buy as it formed the right side of base when it jumped above the 50dma. That kept my loss on that one new lot to a minimum.
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I was 30% cash in my IBD account due to taking some losses and profits to reduce exposure. I had a half position in DUOL and noticed it rebounding well, but waited too long. Had to buy 1/2 position at top of buy range, so I am more vulnerable to a breakout, But it is acting very strong.
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I was active today, sold off some underperformers around lunch: RCL, ONON, CRDO. Then when Trump announced reciprocal tariffs would be delay, the market got happy and I started adding and starting new position I wanted TYL around lunch, but waited and it went to above the buy zone, so I took a pass (it did fade down at the end).
Added to DAVE as it reentered the buy zone. Added to RDDT because I think the reasons for the drop has been resolved per CEO. New position in FLUT because it is breaking back into buy zone and DKNG has earnings tonight. FLUT has better ratings and is at less risk if DKING tanks (which it did not and FLUT is up 2.4% after hours at this moment). Bought MWA as it breaks back into buy zone after very good earnings move a couple days ago. It was also interested in PH, but MWA had better ratings.
I got crushed in TTD today so sold off my “trade-around-core-position”, but kept my long term position from an old MF rec. I wonder if APP is taking share.
$ONON has been dragged down by SKX and DECK disappointments. Sold some recently and sold the rest today. Today’s lot had 14.62% profit, which is disappointing from the highs. This tranche was 2/3rds of a standard position.
$RCL was a 4.56% loss on a 1/2 position. CRDO was a 10.5% loss on a 1/3 position.
If I had to pick one, I would say I think MWA is the best based on the move and the ratings.
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This is a chop fest and I have been getting kicked out of my positions. I bought more App today when it looked like it was climbing up at $456.50, Still in TVTX, SE, RBRK.
I like the look of SE, very calm and steady rise. I bought it incorrectly (and FRPT) by putting in a limit instead of buy-stop, so they were bought below the pivot instead of going through. I sold Se right away and tried FRPT for a few days. Sold it before it crashed. Wish I had done it other way.
RBRK does not look to choppy either. I almost bought $APP today, but tried something different. You are probably killing it in APP.
GEHC, RGLS, PH, TYL and DKNG are some others I contemplated before making my previous posted buys.
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I played App really well but Alab was my down fall, But Nbis made up for that. Just wish I was more systematic. That is what my new year resolution was but I already screwed the pooch on that. Ah well practice makes perfect.
Andy, @buynholdisdead
$ALAB Post analysis. Let’s do this together. Were there signs that would have saved you and that you can implement going forward? I have had the same happen to me, but I got lucky or did it right on this one.
I decided to sell all shares on 1/17 because the market was looking and feeling bad to me. I wanted to lock in gains and reduce exposure. Also, that was a strong down-side reversal day, a sign to get out or take some profits. I could never have expected that gap down at the time.
On 1/21, I note that it was the first test of the 50dma, a good place to add to a position from a proper breakout. I am not sure why I did not add, not in my notes. Webby might have added here or called it a “setup day” where he would add the next day on proof of strength. I put a green circle on that point as an alert to me the next time I looked at the stock.
The next day it did go up above the 1/21 high, so there are times I would have bought for that reason, a show of continued strength. But then it hit the 21dma and stopped and then reversed down and sliced below the 50dma on volume 20% above average. If I had bought on the upside reversal the day before, I should have set a stop loss below the 50dma. But, being honest with myself, that is one of my big flaws, and I likely would have told myself I would just watch every day. On the day it went below the 50dma, I might have decided to wait another day. I have done that too often, then I would have been dead with the gap-down open. There is also the strategy of selling partial. Maybe you truly “believe” in the stock, but when it closes below the 50dma on higher volume, make yourself sell at least half. You can buy it back the next time it goes above the 50dma. I am starting to do that more. I recently trimmed a small amount off META for that reason, it still goes up every day, but it does not bother me. I might trim a little more.
I recently did sell correctly as VERX fell through the 50dma on higher volume. I had bought in Oct in the low $40s and if I had not sold on the 50dma trigger, I would be down to about a 4-6% gain. I can see one thing I did wrong, there was a day where it set a new high and reversed down do become negative. Bill and Webby would have seen that as a change in character. I should have sold 50% that day and told myself to buy it back if I were wrong.
I am sure if I dig through my snapshots I can find some where I refused to sell on the 50 day trigger (which is an IBD rule). I also have plenty of slides showing 100% or more gains I missed out on for selling too soon, so the market knows how to get you every time.
So what is your self-analysis and resolution to modify your rules?
“Once a stock has had a bad break, it is considered in the penalty box until it proves itself,” says IBD Senior Market Strategist Mike Webster. To prove itself, the stock needs to get back to the price where it had the bad break, or around 113 for SharkNinja. Ideally, the stock would start forming a new base right above 113.
If the stock can’t recover and sells off sharply again, it can become a “serial gapper” down, Webster warned.
Based on this “thinking out loud”, I have raised my stop loss on APP to $417. That is quite enough leeway. What is your plan?
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Andy, what is your stop loss plan for NBIS? I am thinking about at yesterday’s lows for now.
As a side note, I just realized what this was. I used to own Yandex from a MF recommendation. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it got frozen in my account and I could not sell. At one point I got a buyout off for about 9 cents a share, so I declined. Once it started trading again, I sold. Looks like I should have just held! But this is a scary stock with no earnings yet. Has to be played like an AI-spec.
Looks like it might only lose $78 per share this year 
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Ok Pete on 1/17/25 I am seeing a strong up day for ALAB. I would have never sold it.
On 1/23 It tried the 50 sma and came back to new highs. This would have told me it was still very strong.
On 1/24 it cut the 50 sma. That is when I should have bailed.
I already told you Pete, I should have set my stops before going on vacation because when it hit the 50 sma and went under I would have been out.
I get the sense you are more of a swing trader while I am more of a position trader. Once I get a position, I set my stop. As long as it doesn’t violate that stop I hold on. When the stock starts moving up I will give it more room to run. I do not want to have a very tight leash except when I first put on my position. So I am not watching every tick of every day.
I raised my stop today on App to $450 right at the bottom of yesterdays run up. That gives me 11 percent drop.
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I sold out of Nbis yesterday Pete for a 13% gain. The way it is acting and the estimates for the next two quarters made me nervous. I would like to see a better set up.
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Pete how long have you been in NBIS? That is another one that dropped just like ALAB. But what surprised me is how fast and strong it came back. If you were in it on 1/27 why did you hold onto it?
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