Lif looks really good. Flagging out and getting tight. Easy way to limit your risk.
Qbts doesn’t look bad but I do not like how it is holding under the 21EMA. It could drop and hold at the 50sma. But it does look like it is flagging out too.
AS is showing a classic VCP pattern. I would like to see it come back into the 21EMA before picking some up though. Looks good.
Good to look at all on a weekly chart also.
I think CRDO is a top stock also. It is breaking out of a cup like pattern. The pattern is 66 percent deep so a flawed cup but it has been very strong.
Yeah, I had a good run in RBRK and it activated the 8-week hold rule, but I ended up selling it right before it gapped below the 21dma on new of a debt offering. The chart showed somebody knew what was going on. But it has held up since then and the news is priced in. I could see buying it.
Love CRDO, was able to buy a little in the flag and then the breakout. The red dashed line is my stop loss.
I got stopped out of CRWV with a tiny loss. I actually feel good when my stop losses hit, makes feel like I have a little discipline.
Bought some AVAV right above the “buy point” yesterday. It is a trade around a core position. 12% above that today. have a stop loss at yesterday’s low, which I should move up soon.
Been hurt a bit on TOST but still holding.
CAVA having a good day finally, but waiting for 21dma.
Bought ANET above recent resistance, need to add a stop loss. This is trading around my core position, which is number 2 or 3 with my AXON (in which I have an IBD trade-rule position).
Took a small gambling position in SERV after Jensen said robotics was their big opportunity. I figured it would get memed. Waited for the first 3 5-minute bars before pulling the trigger. I like that IBD advice.
SHAK is trying to breakout.
ALAB about to move above a viable swing trade area.
Move above 21dma. Nice. (LIF has a had a couple days of 400%+ volume increases, something Darvas and O’Neil thought prescient. More later in a new Darvas thread.) (RBLX had one also, and I am looking for more this weekend)
I got stopped out of CRCL with a 4.2%. Quite happy that I used a good stop loss and was saved from a bigger decline. Also helps me learn to play these heat stocks, which I am doing with small position.
I deleted my HIMS post from “Market School” board, so here it is again. Held the 50dma for the day.
I added to NFLX a few days ago on a “Darvas Box” breakout (box was not really 3 weeks long). So, today I wanted to set a stop loss for those shares and thought Darvas would sell them all, should I? Then I thought I have big cushion, why sell all. Then I thought that if it got below the box, it was also below the 21dma, so I did set stop loss to sell all shares. My overall portfolio is at record highs and that is when I hold too long, so I am setting more stop losses this time.
My SAIL is quickly not working out. MarketSurge had it as a cup and I saw a handle and bought it on a move above that. It was not a very good handle, but I wanted in on an IPO breakout. Down 6.91% on a 1/4 position, so not horrible. I will probably sell Monday and definitely sell if TOST breaks out and I need money.
It had a nice gap up on earnings to form this flag/handle. I would buy it again and recommend it to a friend if it breaks out from the cup base.
The interest rate on coreweave is now at 54% so it has come down a lot. I see this as a sign that the shorts are starting to capitulate.
So, with the shorts leaving, no short squeeze to shot the stock up? Time to sell?
PLTR had a very ugly Friday, plummeting in the last 15 minutes to end below the 21dma with a 9.3% loss. Something smells fishy to me and I think this will act like TOST did and reverse back up for a buying opportunity after the shakeout. Otherwise, it could get very ugly for this hig flier.
Speaking of TOST, I have a position, some before the one-day plunge and then smaller adds on the reversal. Webby said he will be buying it if it takes out Wednesday’s highs, which are right below the buy zone. I plan to set some buy-stops at that point and in the buy zone.
See Webby’s take on TOST at the 38:25 mark of Friday’s video. (right before that, they discuss the setup in AS).
I just when though my “Heat” list, every single one was down Friday even though markets ended up. This must be watched.
I now have more stop losses in than ever before.
It is still heavily shorted Pete but it is subsiding. It could be they are afraid that it will start taking off again or maybe they are tired of paying the interest. I am still getting 54% interest which is still high.
CAVA pops over 21dma, so I added. Add more if above 50dma
APP pops up off 50 and just above 21dma. I have no position.
DAVE taking off without me
PLTR back above 21dma as expected.
RDDT making a move
@buynholdisdead is kickin’ it today. LIF and HNGE. Good job.
I added to CAVA twice and will need to sell something to add more if it goes above 50dma tomorrow.
In my MFCD account, my breakout limit order for TWLO hit, but volume too low so now I have to decide if I want to keep it.
In my IBD account BROS is beyond the 7%-8% sell rule, so I am dumb and should sell instead of having faith.
You told me about Hnge. I just took the trade. Circl seems to be coming down. These are all high ATR trades so I could be losing big tomorrow. But thanks Pete. I did take a smaller position in Hims today, I can’t see them not doing good on the next earnings report even with what Novo did to them.
While I agree, but I decided to sell HIMS at a 1.1% loss as it fell below the 50dma. Given the unexpected rotation action today, I decided to have the cash instead of the stock.
I did buy RMBS as it broke into buy zone on nice strength. I had bought the first 1/2 position on first break into the zone, but this one is better and counter to a lot of the position trades I own.
I sold my very recent position in AVAV as it announced new share issuance after this huge gap up after earnings. I still have a larger core position (non-trade) at about 100% profit.
CRDO triggered the stop loss, sold, went a little farther down, but is now above the sell point. That is what stop losses are for, get you out on a decision that was made with logic and not emotion. 9.82% profit.
Also sold BROS this morning at about 11% loss. Should have sold at 7-8% loss, I used the “hope strategy”, which I keep hearing is not a strategy 
I bought it at the top of the buy zone on a good breakout. If I had used a buy-stop, I would have been in lows and only lost about 7% at this point. One could also argue that the downside reversal on the breakout day was a very bad sign and I should have been more diligent in being willing to sell. It already telling my I was probably wrong. And it kept telling me, but I did not listen.
A lot of my position trades are finding support at 21dma, but that does not make me feel great. AXON, SPOT, HWM, MELI, TOST, NET, NOW
Some interesting stocks today: ORCL, RMBS, TTD, SBUX, CMG,
MDY, IWM (midcap, small cap) are up nice, confirming some kind of rotation is going on. I have UNH and UPS in my dividend collection and they are up surprisingly well today.
CAVA moving above 50dma, may be a rotation play that can become a meme stock again. I have a good position and will be adding.
KBWB breaking out, ETF for banks, weighted for the bigger banks. Rotation play. Deregulation play. Banks are announcing dividend increases
MGNI for the “heat” list.
I added a little RDDT on continued strength above 200/50/21. 21dma crossed over 200dma. Might be a rotate-back-in stock
update: 10:45
Added small to RBLX as is rebounded off my stop-loss price. The stop loss was within 4 cents of hitting but rebounded, so I took it as a sign of support. Updated stop loss to include new shares.
update 12:58
Got stopped out of OUST for 1.25% on small spec position
Added 1/4 position to IBIT on jump above 21dma
I bought some “trade” shares around my DDOG core holdings recently. It was just added to S&P500 to replace Juniper and is up 10% to $149 after hours. I have a limit sell at $158.98 in case it goes nuts tomorrow on a light trading day.
Setting Stop Losses. I have been using these much more and feel good about. Here is a recent experience still in play. It might provide an example for those not using stop losses much. Remember that Webby is a swing trader and only wants to buy when there is a place that makes it clear he is wrong. I tried that here.
You can see ANET is a stock with very high growth ratings. I bought this as a swing trade when it went above the 200dma. Therefore, my logical stop loss would be below the 200dma. My expectation is that once it goes above 200dma (in this market), it would stay above, if not I was wrong and must sell. The stock traded down several times but never went below the 200, so I can still hold it. Maybe if it goes well above the $100 mark and holds, I will move the stop loss up there so I will guarantied a profit.
I did end up buying 2 tranches of KBWB for 3/4 position. Easy way to play the bigger banks, which are rocking.
I added small to ORCL
I bought small MGNI as spec and to keep practicing managing heat stocks. 1/8th position. Not sure where I want a stop loss yet.
Added to EYE on move above fake Darvas box, set stop loss for ALL shares below the box. Only 1/4 position.
I think I mentioned this, but both Darvas and O’Neil found that days of 400% or higher volume portended a greater chance of big moves in the future. I don’t know when that aged out, but I am going to look for those events that show on the normal range of MarketSurge charts.
OCRL is a good example, it current has 3 400% + events on the chart that I have highlighted with a little green circle on the volume bar (and one 387% bar that I did not highlight).
Put this stock on your watch list. I am going to play it with “Darvas Boxes”. Darvas wanted 3-week boxes like O’Neil liked 3 weeks tight patterns, but I am going to be loose with them. My understanding is that you buy as it moves above the box and sell ALL if it falls below the bottom of the box. I believe both investors were willing to buy back even if they had sold all.
It is difficult to set a buy-stop if the box is not yet 3 weeks, so in this example, I bought “too high”.
looking at that chart Pete, it looks like it had high volume on earnings and then went flat till the next earnings. Then it had high volume on the next earnings and went flat (consolidating) till the next earnings.
So are you planning on buying it and holding it through earnings? That last box has a 40% drop. So you would buy it at the top of the box and try holding it through the drop?
Looks like my Olo is being acquired for 2 billion dollars by Thomas Bravo $10.25 a share. Not a big win for me but one I will take.
Andy, I differential a box from a base and I think Darvas might have too, but I need to research that. My current understanding of a Darvas box is that it is at least 3 weeks long and tight. I think any flat base might qualify, but a cup or double-bottom would not. That last base was 40% deep, I would use the IBD 7% loss rule or a 50dma violation to stop out of that.
The pink box I show is really too short for a 3-week Darvas box, so I will call it a short-box or fake Darvas box to acknowledge I am not following the buy rule. But since the rule for a tight Darvas box is sell at the bottom minus 25 cents, I would never be subject to a 40% loss.
One reason I am trying this is that we have had a great run off the lows and it would not be surprising to get some kind of correction, though we hope for a few flat weeks of rest. If the market starts dragging my stocks down, I have “Darvas” stop losses in for ALL shares instead of the ones I just bought. I am just tired of losing too many profits and this way I can pyramid up and stop out sooner.
I just added 10% of a position on HWM. HWM has had a great run and could keep going, but I decided to add this on a short-Darvas box move and then set the stop loss for all shares, thus locking me in around the 20% gain area since the pivot.
Since it was not a 3-week box yet, I did not buy when it first moved above the box. After the recent 1-day correction, it has given me another chance. It found support at top of box and is rebounding today. Today is dangerous because it is half a day and big traders may be off, so moves can easily be rescinded on Monday.
Congrats on OLO, that is one I never heard of.
Agreed Pete, I have been thinking about this also. Trying to get bigger moves in my stocks has ended up with losses in some of them. I was recently stopped out of Rbrk but was able to get a nice return out of it because I moved my stop up.
As you know Pete those buy out’s are just luck. But thanks. I bought it on 6/23 just as it was tightening up and going over the 21 EMA while it was in the low of the consolidation. But if this buy out hadn’t happened who knows what would have happened. But the business is online food ordering. Something a lot of people seem to be doing these days.
