In the future, can you guys place a timestamp instead of the AXON statement was a buy on day 2 a couple days ago.
" CELH had a buy price-label that has been erased. " - piinpoint the timestamp (date with dollar amount) with out asking a thousand questions.
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CELH 6/17/24 Price Label was at that low of $56.59. Then a few days later the price went below that and Stockcharts.com removed the label. Since I did not buy on that signal, I do not have an original screen shot of the label.
I do remember that IOT had a bottom price label on same day and it is still there since the price went up. As shown in image below…
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NU looks like it was a buy back on 6/18 per SS rulez. I think the chart is now looking for the sell. I know you are using IBD rules here (Technical Trader) vs the SS system…doc
edit: actually it looks like a hold since it is moving up so strongly!
re: CELH
Attached is a black-and-white snapshot on 6/10/24 and I can understand the game of hide and seek with these darn charts.
On my OHLC coloured charts,
I would have sold CELH on 6/24/24 the charts are acting funny with a minor loss.
I have owned CELH in my portfolio for several years and drink their products. CELH competes with PRIME.
I am sitting on CELH at 2,973 shares at 98.81 on my spreadsheet. a little over a quarter million. Had over a few Million dollars with CELH and had to stop, get out, and return later.
The Spreadsheets tell me how much to buy based on the stock’s current price and dollars in the bank at the Asked price. You buy at the ASK and sell at the BID.
I have skin in the game with all my stocks for the past 51 years as a Swing Trader and an Investor for over 65 years.
For sidebar action, I still have skin in the game because I trust Simon & Co. If there are minor losses, I accept it for doing business.
Investing is a Business and must be treated as such.
If you are just R&Ding, you are wasting your time and energy. When you have skin in the game, you think differently and are always on the defense if something happens.
I wish you the best, keep studying charts daily.
Quill -
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@Quillnpenn once again thank you for your patience. There might be some on the board who interpret me as dumb and clueless, but I was a successful software engineer for many years and my brain is programmed to look for rules more than for feeling the market. So, as if am reviewing charts, I start solidifying the rules in my brain. But then I start seeing exceptions to the rules. Price labels disappear. The is a rule missing for selling defensively before a smiley face appears. Sliding a chart around gives you a kajillion buy opportunities as the time frame changes.
My R&D is actual trading as posted on the “real-time” thread, so hopefully I am not wasting my time. I do check lots of charts daily as well.
I see on the first CELH chart you posted that it has the smiley fact on 6/26 and a frowny face on 6/10. If I slide the chart around I can get lots of smiley faces (6/7, 6/6, 6/3, 5/31, 5/30). I have come to the conclusion that those do not matter because they don’t appear on the 2-month chart we use, only 5/22 smiley is on the full 2-month chart.
The CELH OHLC shows a slightly green bar today, which indicates I should buy it at 3:30PM if still there. But the HA chart is slower and has a red candle for today, so I should not buy it. That is one aspect that confused me and my rule-based brain. Is the argument that either chart works equally well by itself when Rule 1 kicks in, or that one chart is better to use than the other. Or that the charts should confirm each other?
I have been using the StockCharts OHLC (or candles) to make my recent buys. You post historical examples with those charts, but are you making your real-time decisions with the Barcharts OHLC and/or HA only? Should I pay the $30/mo for StockCharts or only stick with Barcharts?
I do appreciate that in the other thread you said you would have sold CELH on 6/24 because it was slightly negative from the buy price (even though Rule #2 had not kicked in). I will call this rule 2.1sell before trade goes negative (if possible).
Sorry for all the questions, I know your time is valuable to you and hope I am not pestering you too much. I really would love to make this system work that way you were able to compound it into millions.
Your humble student, Pete
I think you might have had a typo, you said
"I am sitting on CELH at 2,973 shares at 98.81 " but that was the high and had a smiley face back in on 3/13/24 and your rules would have sold you out. Right now the price is $57-ish, which would be a huge loss that would certainly violate all your rules. Right?
Pete,
For one thing, everyone knows you are not dumb and are working to be a great trader, ignore the people that try to drag you down. Just focus on your process, valid and good comments that are meant to help you evaluate your process should always be welcome but the other comments are not meant to help you. I appreciate all you are doing and I am sure there are many more.
Also, I understand that you want a rule for everything but some of this stuff can’t be rules based. Some of it has to be because you have seen that before so I need to do this. All of that will come with experience and just getting into it. That is why practice is so important.
The most important thing that Quill told you is don’t be scared, fear will kill the mind, the fearful ones never end up achieving, another thing I would tell you is always keep a positive attitude on your ability, while you might be learning, you will catch up fast.
Andy
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Andy, thanks. Technically, your quote above is a rule. MarketSurge uses AI Pattern recognition to recognize patterns from the past. I know Bill looked at thousands of charts and Webby says he scans through the Growth 250 and other screens multiple times, resulting in at least 1000 chart views a day. I do recognize I need to train my pattern recognition brain area, but also knowing some of the master’s secret sauce will give me a head start. You put on a hard 3% stop loss. Quill just indicated for the CELH chart he would have sold went it went negative on him. That is a nice piece of confirmation.
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Is it? Because next time it might not still hold because he saw something in the chart he liked.
Let’s say Quill hits 10 out of 10 because he bends the rules. But you hit 7 out of 10 because you follow the rules. Is that bad or are you both doing good? It is like the Autonomous cars, they have rules that get them almost there and now they are trying to figure the rest of it out by driving more. I suspect that is the problem with what Quill does, he knows the rules and he knows when to bend them with his own experience but his experience might get you into trouble if you apply them as a set of rules. Maybe I am wrong but that is what I think.
At the level we are at I think it is more important to try to practice the rules before we try skating outside the lines. If we get 4 out of 10 right but our winners are larger than our losers we can still win. That is why monitoring your risk is so important and that comes with position size and how much you lose as a percentage.
At least that is what I am reading Pete. This doesn’t come from my knowledge but from the books I am reading. Anyway onward and upward.
Andy
You know Pete I just thought more on this. This could be a great rule but when would you sell. At the end of the day because the chart looked funny or the next day after seeing how the day went? That could be a great rule but selling in the morning because you noticed something. The day is just starting.
Andy
Absolutely! The great traders have that the most in common, don’t lose your money, live to fight another day. IBD stresses this too.
I am learning with a tiny bit of my money. Less money than I now pay for hurricane insurance in Florida…every year.
Rule 2.1 (Andy) use a hard 3% stop in the beginning
Rule 2.1 (Quill) see the chart, be the chart. Sell if the chart looks wonky.
Rule 2.1 (Pete) give up opportunity at gains by selling as the trade goes negative.
I will try different approaches. Thanks.
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yeah, probably looked at two (2) charts at the same tyme. My fault.
Grasshopper,
If you want to be a successful Swing Trader hassle-free, Stick with Stockchart. Stay tuned!
With Barchart, they give a lot of good information. But, I only LOOK at the 2-month chart on the screen and that’s it. I do nothing. See attached CELH charts.
Thank you, Done and move on to the Stockcharts. In the upper right-hand corner click on the ICON. Build your portfolio of stocks that you currently have and add a few others, but not too many. I plow every morning about 12 plus my SPDRs plus XRT (not on the list, just review the stock) by clicking on the Globe-looking icon.
One of Simons’s little blue lines SECRET.
Now, I want you to pay attention to the blue 20 ema very very carefully. A lot of traders abuse or ignore the MA. Let’s look at COST, the best stock in my pool of stocks.
The blue 20 ema is like a magnet to the prices. Observe, the prices will come from out of the gate (bottom) and rise above the blue line. Then attempt to come back down over the 20 ema. But nope we Stir, rinse, and repeat the cycle over and over and over.
And of course, we do what Simon tells us what to do with the imaginary zig and zag.
Let’s observe the OUT of the GATE trail starting anywhere below the 20 ema.
Now, the prices start heading North until the sale at Finish Line (top). One could short the stock down. I don’t short the stock for sometimes the stocks are not available to short by the MM’s (money marketers).
Follow the rules and we will be protected by Simon if such a huge loss occurred.
Repeat, start at Out of the Gate 100 percent of the time the prices will rise above the 20 ema. I did not see any Finish Line labels fall below the 20 ema.
Let’s do it another way and observe how I and my little 6th graders do it.
Buy at the bottom, sell at the top, buy at the bottom, sell at the top, and on and on to where making money is booooooooring. Booring meaning waiting and waiting for some serious action.
Once in a while, you will get a minor head fake as a surprise.
How many stocks do you have in your monthly dividend portfolio having enough money to be transferred to your bank account.
Let some of the divi’s pay for the Stockcharts expenses.
Let the dollars work for you and not the inverse.
I would like to do is have COST, V, APPL and WM in your fixed Business Plan portfolio if you want to be a healthy wealthy Swing Trader as noted below.
COST and V are in sync together. COST is expanding like crazy this year with new stores in many other states.
Hotdogs are still a buck 50 plus a drink.
Abacus ready.
A sample line was thrown by a dart at my COST spreadsheet. Only 22 days.
1/29/2024 - bought 1,854,636 shares @ $689.87. Sold COST 2/12/2024 @ $717.49. Can you handle the profit made and compound the money and start the journey all over on the next trade? I sleep well at night counting sheep.
Bang on the Abacus. Thank you, Simon.
The spreadsheet tells me how many shares to buy all the time. I only lost 3 times out of 160 trades.
The secret power of Compounding and compounding and compounding always works.
A little history on May 1st, 2007 at High Noon ( pi$$ed me off, didn’t finish my lunch ) as a Senior principal IC (Integrated Circuits)Llayout Designer designing complex state-of-the-art Computer Chips, standard library cells consisting of many Or’s, Ands, Nors and complex logic blocks, standard INput/OUTput (pads) library cells for over 41 years. The last project was the USB 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 port chips that everybody uses at the bottom of their Cell phones or connections to their computers. My company was a " ME TOO company. "
I am also a CareGiver for my wife for the last 24 years with a form of Parkinson’s disease 24/7. Can’t walk. Every 3 hours is meds time around the clock and with many interruptions in between. I read a lot of stock intelligence reports, and trading, and studied chart patterns (buy at the bottom, sell at the top over and over trying to break Simon’s habits. Simon is freaking too smart. Some people are trying and trying.
Had to get a job kwik to help pay the insurance tab and other expenses. So I went and applied to COSTCO for a job as a Greeter for 18.00/hr plus bennies. I failed the online test 3 times.
Couldn’t get the job for some unknown reason. No biggie.
Researched COSTCO. So I went and bought the company (stocks that is) and the rest is history.
On May 4th, I bought 1000 shares at $38.08. Today, I am on my 160th trade.
Simon has been very very good to us.
At 16 I learned how to trade while I was a caddy at a private golf course with Two (2) investment bankers. They saw I was reading " The Richest Man in Babylon ‘’.
They showed me how to plot OHLC charts on graph paper and at that time plot out 13ema over 50ema lines. I only caddied for them every weekend (2 loops) for 2 more years. I thanked them for helping me learn the tricks of the trade and recommended books to read.
Note: Ray Dalio was also a Caddy at a different golf course a mile away from my local at the same time. Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater in 1975
Becasue of AI, start looking at Energy companies and Copper (FCX) and silver companies because of the EV and the consumptions of a lot of electricty.
Something to ponder for now,
Quill -
Ps The Next adventure for your training skills will be “Chart of the Day” on Barchart via Simon Sez if you accept the challenge to learn.
Basically, it will be after the fact Jack digging deeper into the research. Not for 6th graders. About 30 minutes of research tyme. But nobody wants to spend the tyme.
IBD and Saul & Co. are the worst places to learn how to be a successful Swing Trader.
P.s.s. I use Traders Pro with a lifetime subscription.
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Wait a minute…you put almost $1.3 BILLION dollars into a single trade? Per Yahoo, the entire trading volume for COST on 1/29 was 2.2 million. 1.85 million of that was you? Everyone else only traded 350K shares of a stock that was at the time averaging around 2 million shares traded per day?
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I sold all my Saul stocks a few days ago. I am trying to simplify my life but will probably follow them for SS3 and IBD opportunities in those dedicated accounts. Have moved into IWM and IJR ETFs in my “Saul” account.
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ELF, CELH and CRWD still untouchable.
SMCI continues its decline below the 50dma. I would not catch that falling knife either.
MNDY and NVDA are SS3 out-of-the-gate yesterday and today respectively.
IBSD-wise:
NU is in the buy zone and retested the pivot today, but has now bounced above the 21dma. Vol is 112% above average for this time of day. COMP=99, RS 94, but pointing down.
NVDA trying to rise above 21dma, will be a good indicator of strength.
MNDY tested the 50dma and it held, today it made it above 21dma. If it holds. An IBD investor buying on the earlier breakout has been shaken out already. A trader buying off the 50dma upside reversal of 6/21 might want to add some more here.
IOT has come from below the 200 dma and now has been above the 50dma for a bit. There is a high from a few days ago that some might use for an early buy in this cup base. I have an alert there and will decide what to do when it happens.
TMDX has an RS of 98 because it has been flat during this latest market decline. It has found plenty of support at the 50dma and is currently riding the 21dma. Pretty strong IBD growth rankings too.
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IOT is setting up in a cup base, may put on a handle. Consolidating in a handle-like tight area after moving up from the bottom. Decent sales growth, weak IBD rankings. EPS is positive.
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In the Saul world, TMDX beat expectation and was up about 8% after hours. This takes it above the 50dma and it may break above consolidation highs tomorrow.
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8/13/24 Some Saul Stocks are looking good.
IOT: breaking out today, but vol is low. RS 91 and sloping up. Decent growth numbers.
MNDY: popped on earnings yesterday. Well above buy zone
NVDA: making a nice comeback and is over 21dma today. IBD people bought a little yesterday and will probably add if it stays above 21dma.
NU: sliced thru the 200dma, but had a strong upside reversal same say. Now back in the buy zone. Above 50dma and 21dma, but 21dma still below 50dma. Very strong growth rankings. RS 93 and heading up. +40% volume today,
ELF: bad.
SMCI: may have found a bottom, but well below 200dma.
AXON: too strong. Well above buy zone after great earnings. Watch for a bullish flag or similar consolidation.
CELH: no energy there.RS is 7. no real signs of a bottom yet.
TMDX: new highs, no IBD buy opportunity.
CRWD: Rounding up after the bloody fall on their bad software release. Possible lawsuits and subscription discounts coming. No IBD buying opportunity.
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No way Crwd should be selling at a P/S of 17 this is going to get real ugly.
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Nu Holdings (NU) earnings beat views. NU stock rose modestly in overnight action. The Brazilian digital bank rose 1.7% to 12.71 on Tuesday, a sixth straight gain after diving as low as 9.67 on Aug. 5.
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