Trans-Pacific Freight--good news or bad?


  • U.S. manufacturing orders in China are down 40% in what a logistics manager described to CNBC as an unrelenting demand collapse.
  • Asia-based shipping firm HLS recently told clients it is a “very bad time for the shipping industry.”
  • China to U.S. container volume was down 21% between August and November.
  • Chinese factories are shutting down two weeks earlier than usual ahead of Chinese New Year.

Would indicate cooling of inflation as far as freight costs, but also signals supply chain problems. Indicator of recession?

I think this is a bad news is good news thing for stocks in this environment. Another reason I want to be more fully invested so I can just ignore this stuff and look out 18 months to 2 years.

Dreamer, do we need a poll on year-end NASDQ number?



I think a better poll is “what will the final bear market low be, whether it already took place in 2022 or is still coming in 2023?”

Because if the lows are already in, what do we have…just a quick couple months of momentum FOMO and right back to silly valuations as if no lesson was learned?

So I think more to come. Whether a BMR takes us higher into EOY or if we plunge EOY ala Dec 2018, I have no idea.


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