$TSLA a bearish bet

[Goofyhoofy]

@Kingran

• wait
• wait
• wait
• wait

1 year
1 year
Six months
1 year

Add another 3 years for significant penetration.

The future is inherently unknown. That never stops us from speculating about it, though.

[dividends20]

@Kingran

I watched Musk interview again with the benefit of rewind. My view is,

1. wait for federal regulations for autonomous cars,
2. Wait for the test with significant # of cars,
3. Wait for the results, I expect some accidents, and negative headlines
4. wait for expansion beyond initial Austin market

The above covers my regulatory, technicalogy, operational issues to be resolved thesis.

When I was buying at $50B market cap, the issues list was much longer and many more compelling arguments from shorts. Many have been decimated since.

Are you thinking of shorting, buying or just a bystander ?

[albaby1]

@dividends20

When I was buying at $50B market cap, the issues list was much longer and many more compelling arguments from shorts. Many have been decimated since.

Perhaps - but how is that relevant?

There were also arguments that were made about why the solar roof was unlikely to become a successful product, and why the Cybertruck was unlikely to be a successful product. Or that the Semi was unlikely to be brought to market on the time and scale suggested by Tesla. Or as was often discussed here, why Tesla’s manufacturing and product design strategy was unlikely to allow Tesla to reach 20 million units of annual car sales by 2030.

Those arguments were all proven right, and the optimistic Tesla position was what was decimated. Okay, admittedly the jury’s still out on the last bit about 20 million cars produced and sold in 2030 - but last year’s decrease in sales coupled with this year’s further decrease in the first part of the year makes that pretty likely.

So it’s no real response to suggest that because Tesla hasn’t failed at everything they’ve tried, they’re therefore going to succeed at this next very difficult thing. The premise doesn’t support the conclusion.

[dividends20]

@albaby1

Perhaps - but how is that relevant?

It is relevant because these were the similar arguments 5 years ago.
There are always naysayers. They were there 5 years ago, they are there now and they will be there in 2030.

[albaby1]

@dividends20

There are always naysayers. They were there 5 years ago, they are there now and they will be there in 2030.

Right. And sometimes the naysayers are right (solar roof, Cybertruck, 20 million units annual sales), even though sometimes they’re wrong (Tesla will go bankrupt).

So none of that gives you a categorical basis for deciding whether a particular Tesla project is going to succeed or fail. You have to assess it on its own merits.

[Kingran]

@albaby1

even though sometimes they’re wrong

Musk deserves credit for investing his personal money and convincing investors and raising additional capital to stave off bankruptcy.

[dividends20]

People seem to be enamored with Tesla.

[albaby1]

It’s an interesting company that claims it’s going to be able to do revolutionary things. So people like to talk about it, whether they’re enamored with it or not.

Of course, that’s also not something that supports your suggestions about what Tesla is likely to be able to do in the next year or two…

[Kingran]

Goldman’s robotaxi projection for China.

[Kingran]

@Kingran

there is a potential for falling out sometime

*MUSK SAYS `DISAPPOINTED’ IN COST OF TRUMP TAX BILL: CBS

[Kingran]

@Kingran

Both are strong personalities and there is a potential for falling out sometime

Here is an example of you can be correct on thesis, timing and still wrong on the trade. May be this sell off creates an opportunity for me to own some.