This boad has what I consider a high proportion of TSLA bears. I’m trying to understand this:
• Do you really think Tesla will not have true robotaxis that compete with Waymo in at least one of its markets by the end of this year, and all 5 of Waymo’s current markets by the end of next year?
• Do you really think Tesla won’t have a cost advantage for that service?
• Do you really think Tesla won’t be able to offer L4 subscription services for cars they sell?
• Do you really think Optimus at some level of production will be delayed beyond, say, mid next year?
• Do you really think the world doesn’t want humanoid robots, at least in manufacturing? If so, why did Hyundai buy Boston Dynamics?
• Do you really think Optimus won’t be successful?
You bears got trounced last year, especially those who shorted the stock. The future today is even brighter than it was 12 months ago, and are you really gluttons for more?
I think robotaxis are irrelevant. They can’t compete with human drivers. Waymo only has 15% market share after 2 years in tech-crazy San Francisco. WeRide just announced that that they have a 1,000 AV fleet of robotaxis. Zoox is coming online. There is going to be so much competition in this space and the idea that Tesla is going to come in and undercut everyone on price is hogwash in my opinion. Plus, they have to get over the hurdle that something like only 9% of people feel comfortable taking a robotaxi without a human driver.
For FSD, Elon had to lower the price to $100/month because no one was buying it. FSD is another big nothingburger in my opinion. Nobody wants it.
Optimus is nothing but hype. Yes, they can do things when controlled by a human, but they are useless without human operators so they won’t be able to compete against human labor on price.
In summary, I think TSLA stock price is built on mostly hype. TSLA is only up 55% over the last five years which trails the S&P 500 by 25%.
I wouldn’t short TSLA because it can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent, but I might buy puts if the opportunity is right.
The bear case is that neither of these add much value to Tesla. Robotaxis are likely to be possible for both Waymo and Tesla technologically, but they will require far more of a “support” network than earlier dreams of Level 5 autonomy had hoped. So neither will be all that much cheaper than conventional ride share. Perhaps somewhat cheaper, but not enough that they’ll automatically steal share from Uber by price alone. And in a long, slow slog to customer acquisition, Tesla spotting Waymo the at least two–year head start in a competitive market (where Tesla has some brand issues) will be hard for them to overcome. Oh, and robotaxis won’t be all that profitable - and in a world where Uber’s entire North American rideshare service is “only” worth <$100 billion, that can’t support Tesla’s value.
No, no, and yes.
Tesla will make some Optimii this year or next. There will be plenty of rich people and/or companies that would be willing to buy an Optimus that can’t do much more than what Optimus can do now, just because it’s cool to have a robot like that. But Optimus’ brain won’t be far enough advanced to do anything meaningful. So they’re not going to be selling in high volume. It will be like robotaxis are for Tesla today - enough of a thing so that optimists can point to them and say, “the future is already here!" even though what they’re doing is basically still just testing the product in an open beta.
The world might want humanoid robots if those robots could mentally do what humans can do, which is why companies are investing in them. But that doesn’t mean that those robots are at all likely to be able to do human tasks with human flexibility any time within the next, say, five years. The data needed to train robots to do that doesn’t exist, and it will take a massive amount of time and money to compile that data. The “want” isn’t the issue - the capability of the robot doesn’t and won’t exist. And unless a robot has a brain that’s advanced enough to take advantage of the flexible form, then the flexible form isn’t worth the trade-offs - especially in factory settings.
And no, Optimus isn’t especially likely to be successful. It’s going to take an awfully long time for the brains to catch up to what that robot body is designed to do. There’s no reason to think that Tesla’s especially ahead in that race, compared to all the other companies in the AI space - including Musk’s own xAI.
I think you’re confusing skepticism of what the business will do with the stock price. It was before you got here, but we argued for quite a while about whether Tesla would actually maintain that 50% CAGR of unit sales. The bears argued that they never would; the bulls argued that Tesla was going to hit 20 million unit sales by 2030. The bears were right. The fact that the stock went to new highs based on skepticism about other lines of Tesla’s business - not their unit sales becoming the largest automaker on earth - doesn’t mean that the bears were wrong in their assessment of Tesla’s future sales volume.
I don’t think Tesla’s going to make all that much money (relatively speaking) on their auto taxi division - and that doesn’t mean that the stock might not climb in value. They’re not the same thing.
I have a better anecdote. Back in the early 2020’s, Musk was still projecting that Tesla would be selling 20 million units by 2030. We bears figured that was very unlikely to happen, given the growth of their competitors, their reluctance to advertise, their incredibly slow rate of bringing new models to market, and the unlikelihood that subsidies would survive in current forms into mass adoption. And guess what? That turned out to be the case, and Tesla didn’t grow their sales by 50% CAGR for a decade.
My goals are business achievements, the achievement of which will increase TSLA’s stock price even further, in some cases by large amounts.
It’s the other way around. People in SF pay more and wait longer to get a ride without a driver to worry about. Go ask some women about how comfortable they feel using Uber at night in the city.
Because they are vehicle-limited. But, guess who can make millions of vehicles?
You crack me up. First you say “robotaxis are irrelevant,” then you say there’s “so much competition” and from the likes of Google and Amazon and Nvidia. Are those huge successful and well-manged companies all wrong and you’re right? Hardly.
Lots of people want it, and as it gets more and more capable, more people will want it. It’s a reason some people buy Teslas today.
You’re clearly not paying attention.
Absolutely true, but not uncommon for a company that’s undergoing a major pivot in its main product - from EVs to autonomy, robotaxis, and robotics.
The important thing here is that these business goals are achievable and will result in profits for TSLA shareholders.
Well I don’t see how Tesla being autonomous in 5 taxi markets in 2 years, literally where Waymo is today, as some kind of huge bull case helping support its valuation today let alone growth from here.
Others are making the point that the taxi market itself isn’t some huge opportunity anyway and you’re saying only 5 markets by end of 2027, that doesn’t look like much of business achievement. It’s certainly more of a technology achievement.
How many markets will Waymo cover in 2 years?
Will Tesla solve autonomy on highways by this year? Next year?
Waymo started its first driverless paid ride in Oct 2020 in Phoexnix. So, 5 years to get 4 more cities. Tesla doing that in less than 2 years will show that Tesla will scale its robotaxi business faster, and eventually surpass Waymo. I don’t have a good date for that yet, though.
And you still haven’t said whether you think this unlikely, possible, or likely.
No, it’s a business achievement. You’re the one making technology predictions, such as:
I don’t know where you stand on Tesla’s business achievements. And I really don’t care - my post was meant to help bears like you understand what drives Mr. Market.
You literally ignore most of other people’s questions, often get frustrated and put people on ignore.
And you are calling me out for not addressing everything you write, point by point? (although the other day I literally responded to one of your posts point by point)
Don’t you see the irony in this approach to a discussion?
They could, but given only 4 cities in 5 years, that doesn’t look likely. Even their announcements of intentions don’t get them to 40+ cities in 2 years.
As usual for you, you’re mixing up your facts and misattributing statements.
We’re talking number of cities here; the other discussion had you with a different metric: “miles of robotaxi fares,” which I explicitly said was yours alone. My “pullling ahead” statement was a general statement:
Whether this is intentional conflation or unintentional confusion on your part, it doesn’t bode well for your investing thesis on TSLA.
As a ‘picks and shovels’ provider, Nvidia will do well. I think Google, Amazon, and Tesla competing against each other are going to drive robotaxi margins to zero.
I guess that’s why Musk cut the price in half? Because it was selling like hotcakes?
I’ll also add that robotaxi and Optimus are both pre-revenue, so Elon can make all kinds of crazy projections about how great they are going to be and bulls will buy it.
However, FSD has some actual numbers at $100/month. That’s only $12 billion per year in revenue and that’s if Elon hits his lofty 10 million subscribers goal. TSLA already makes $100 billion per year in revenue so that’s only a 12% revenue increase.
So, like cybertruck, FSD is already a flop. Most likely, robotaxi and Optimus will be too.
`The first point isn’t a particularly pertinent question for a couple of reasons. First is that Waymo has announced plans to be in 20 markets by the end of this year. If Tesla can only achieve one, it is very far behind.
Second is that by all estimates Waymo is losing huge amounts of money on a per ride basis. So I’m not sure it is a “competition” in that regard. More like measuring stick.
Obviously not for current cars, except possibly in extremely limited conditions.
No idea what the production schedule is. But I’ve never seen a single video of Optimus performing a task well enough that it could replace a human. So I’m curious what the demand will be.
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”