Any news? Can’t find any. Earnings tomorrow, volume high.
Downgraded to a Hold by an analyst today.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3434978-trade-desk-minus-3-per…
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Downgraded from Buy to Hold by Stifel as per my Schwab account
Steve
1 Like
Stifel downgraded a day before earnings…total hit job with that timing.
IMO, they ran up from low $100s in Dec low to ATH of $163, so a pullback isn’t unexpected.
Given that their ERs tend to be a flashpoint for volatility and lead to a pop (usually) but also a collapse (Nov 2017) I would rather see them going down into the ER anyway.
Nothing has changed on their investment thesis…just an analyst deciding 2/20 was the right day to announce a downgrade.
Dreamer
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Typical short-term noise created by a downgrade. We’re in this for the long term.
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TTD trending down in early trading today. A forecast? A precursor?
I have a contingent trade trigger set at TD Ameritrade for buy in at -10% drop…
Even with today’s down trend, ~~~-5%, they are far from triggering…
(With a price that is as close as they are to their 52 week high, it makes it that much more of a gamble. Roll the damn dice.)
Off we ride into the sunset.
The last two Qtrly ER’s were quite a jump, this might be setting up nicely if I had the guts to add today…
Foolingyou1
And intraday -10% has been hit… now the proud new owner of 150 heavily discounted shares of TTD…
Now to see how much of a pig in a poke we’ve got…
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If only I had some spare cash to add… do I want to trim anything today? In my best Pooh voice “think, think, think!”
I started to grab a few shares, then decided that would too much like fun.
So I curbed my enthusiasm.
Still, it is a fair size position.
Cheers
Qazulight
1 Like
A downgrade and lower target on the day before earnings. Either that is insider info foretelling of a disappointing earnings, or it is stock manipulation to get a lower entry before another blowout earnings report. The timing is very suspicious.
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Invest wisely my friends
CMFSoloFool - Ticker Guide / Share Holder
Profile and holdings: https://goo.gl/TYTU4S
11 Likes
Honestly just like a quiet period, analysts at brokerage firms should not be able to make any calls on a stock at least a few days prior to an earnings release.
There should be a quiet period just to keep any manipulation from happening.
If an analyst learned something that changed his or her point of view right before earnings are released then something isn’t right. Otherwise why would their opinion be different then it was a week prior?
I added some shares though as 146 to me seems to be a support line.
Chris
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If an analyst learned something that changed his or her point of view right before earnings are released then something isn’t right. Otherwise why would their opinion be different then it was a week prior?
The stock price rose from around $142 to around $162 (14%) in about 10 or 11 days and up about 56% in the weeks following the recent 12/24 low. Perhaps the analyst thought the valuation had gotten too high.
Chris
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Don’t analysts have to disclose their positions? Seems like all writers have to.
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“The stock price rose from around $142 to around $162 (14%) in about 10 or 11 days and up about 56% in the weeks following the recent 12/24 low. Perhaps the analyst thought the valuation had gotten too high.”
Well Chris if thst was the case, he didn’t make it a strong reason. His price target is 144, so you would think back when the stock crossed 144 he could have came out then and put a hold on the stock.
Instead he waits until now?
Honestly I don’t mind as I was able to add shares at 46.50, so thanks for the downgrade.
Chris
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Earnings report Q4 2018: $0.86 EPS; forecasted $0.80. (Forecasted eighty cents EPS was a 60% boost YOY from Q4 2017.)
Glad I jumped on the -10% price drop yesterday.
Think I’ll hold for at least another 12 months.
More numbers, the complete report:
The Trade Desk Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2018 Financial Results
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-desk-reports-fourth-qua…
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Correction:
Q4 2018 EPS forecast was $0.80, vs actual $0.54 Q4 2017, a 48% boost. Not 60%.
I personally have a very tough relationship with stock analysts and have learned through many trials and tribulations to take them and their up/down grades with a grain of really large himalayan sea salt!
Often, these reports are written and made by relative kids fresh out of their MBAs (or not even) with little experience, even if they do presumably have the theory down. No offense or insult to anyone here, but when I was fresh out of MBA school, I didn’t know anything relative to what I’ve learned the past 25 years. That said:
If the analyst (or his/her firm) trades on this downgrade, he would almost certainly be breaking the law and could be banned from further trading by the SEC.
It is unfortunately typical of many analysts that he didn’t downgrade the stock to a hold when it was back at $142? Hind sight can sometimes be 20/20, though it certainly was not in this case. Its much easier and higher probability that he ends up being right AFTER the stock has risen another 15%.
Lucky, though, for those of us who track the earnings and pay attention to the company performance (and not just the stock price) to have had the opportunity to add a little at a discount to our positions on the “downgrade”.
As of a few minutes ago, TTD is up over 11% after hours after completely crushing and dismantling expectations…and not by just a few percent, but by more that 30% and then upping their guidance. No complaints here…just hoping no one on the board blindly listened to an analyst who may or may not have done his homework. And regardless, I guess we ought to thank him for the opportunity to buy TTD at a discount.
Cheers!
Victor (@poleekoranch)
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