Thanks to a post from jjaym at the BRK board TUP again caught my attention. In 2020 there were fears of bankruptcy and a share selling for nearly $1. The stock recovered and was after up to $35 in 2021.
Now they missed earnings expectations and are selling for $8. Unfortunately their debt isn’t lower than it was in 2020. Seems it’s again a bet on whether they can survive or not?
Earnings estimates will certainly come down. However, for a stock with roughly $2 annual eps, selling at $8-9, seems a decent bet, if their sales can recover. Of course, they just accelerated their stock buyback last quarter, before the price tanked, purchasing $75m of stock. They are scheduled to execute more buybacks in the next month or so (at lower prices, at least?). They seem to have a knack for poor timing. The earnings transcript read like a perfect storm of several things going wrong (Ukraine, China, internal issues) right at a time when the market is not in a mood to be particularly forgiving of revenue and earnings misses. Still they achieved essentially a break-even quarter with everything that went wrong. Could things be worse next quarter? We’ll see.
I think I’ve lost more money on TUP than any other investment, so don’t follow my lead!
I think I’ve lost more money on TUP than any other investment, so don’t follow my lead!
I am sorry for you. With pure luck multiple-wise I made more with TUP than with anything else (10-15x, thanks to Calls). I will follow you if the price comes down a lot more.
I nailed yesterday’s low for TUP of $6.38.
Unfortunately, it was a partial fill, so I got exactly one share.
And today it’s up around 6% or so.
C’est la vie.
I nailed yesterday’s low for TUP of $6.38.
Unfortunately, it was a partial fill, so I got exactly one share.
And today it’s up around 6% or so.
C’est la vie.
Seems the low yesterdaty was $6.21? Anyways, now $6.49, up 4%.
Good to keep an eye on this one. With a $300m market cap and $156m in income from operations last year, it certainly seems to have the potential to be a good deal, if they can restructure properly. Just their brand name may be worth the market cap, conceivably. This is the line I like in their earnings transcript from the 2021 AR:
“We implemented proven methods of operations, utilizing data and techniques to revamp our core direct selling business. We started building new capabilities to open up our iconic brand to new channels of distribution, with the goal of dramatically increased consumer access to our products.”
dtb
The original order fill was late on Monday.
It’s bounced around a bit the last few days.
The rest of the order would have eventually filled at $6.38 or better on Thursday,
but I was impatient and increased my limit price and got a fill at $6.44 on Wednesday morning.
If earnings estimates are anything close to being correct for the next couple of years,
and I’m patient, it may work out okay.
Quite a change from mid-July.
TUP, up 50% or so this morning @ $11+ on earnings report.
That eases my pain on TUP a little bit.
Still a long way for me to be break-even, but it is a start.