Twlo Q120

TWLO
Price: 5/7/2020: $170.89
Market Cap: 23.8B
P/E: N/A
Cash flow yield: N/A
P/S: 18.79

Current Numbers

May 6th, 2020 1Q:2020 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $364.868 million up 56.50% from $233.139 million
** TTM revenue was $1,266.197 billion up 67.9% from $754.088 million
** TTM Revenue per share was $9.09 per share
** 4Q earnings (loss) was ($0.68) down from ($0.31) per share
** Fiscal 2019 earnings were ($2.70) down from ($1.31) per share
** Diluted share count 139,231,594 million
** Cash $1.843 billion: debt $464.4 million
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative $590 thousand up
from ($17.117 million)
** Cash flow for the year was negative ($35.535 million) down
from ($19,344million)
** Stock-based compensation for the quarter was $69.025 million up 18%
from $58.324 million
** Stock-based compensation for the year was $275.019 million up 105%
from $134.057 million
** Trading range between February 6, 2020 and May 7th, 2020 was $68.06 to $176.37:
PE ratio range NA: Cash flow yield range NA: PS ratio range was 7.48 to 19.39:
** Special Note: The day after the report the stock went up $48.49,
from $122.40 to $170.89

Income Statement:

They grew Revenue by 56.5 percent but they are still losing more money
on a Gaap basis with their eps coming in at a lost of (.68) compared to
a loss of (.31) YoY. Although on a N-Gaap basis they did grow their EPS
from $.05 to $.06 YoY. Their share count went from 116,590,513 million
to 139,231,594 this quarter. Their operating margins did improve by
13 percent going from -38% to-25%. I would like to see them starting to
become profitable on a Gaap basis since they are now over the 1 billion
in Revenue mark. The big reason that operating margins came down
(Less Negative) YoY Is because they were able to cut their
General and Administrative costs as a percentage of Revenue. Let’s look at their numbers.

Rev and Share Count in Millions


           Q118      Q218      Q318      Q418      Q119      Q219      Q319      Q419      Q120
Rev        $129.1    $147.8    $168.9    $204.3    $233.1    $275      $295.1    $331.2    $364.9
Rev Gr     47.8%     54.1%     68%       77.3%     80.6%     86.2%     74.7%     62.1%     56.5%
EPS       -.25      -.25      -.28      -.47      -.31      -.72      -.64      -.66      -.68
N(EPS)    -.04       .03       .07       .04       .05       .03       .03       .04       .06
Shares    94.674     96.348    98.020    99.418    116.591   129.311   136.401   137.729   139.232

Here are the numbers for margins and Operating expenses as a percentage of Revenues.


              Q118      Q218      Q318      Q418      Q119      Q219      Q319      Q419      Q120
Cos Of Rev    46%       46%       46%       47%       46%       45%       46%       47%       47%
GM            54%       54%       54%       54%       54%       55%       54%       53%       53%
R&D           29%       27%       25%       25%       33%       36%       35%       33%       31%
S&M           25%       26%       27%       29%       31%       33%       34%       32%       32%
G&A           18%       16%       17%       20%       28%       20%       16%       16%       15%
OM           -19%      -15%      -15%      -22%      -38%      -34%      -32%      -28%      -25%

Balance Sheet:

The balance sheet was stronger YoY with $1.843 billion in cash compared to 918.9
million in cash. But Sequentially it deteriorated from $1.853 billion.
This quarter they had $464.4 million in debt compared to $445.2 million in
Debt YoY. Sequentially they had $458.2 million in Debt.

Here are the numbers.

All numbers in millions
           Q118      Q218      Q318      Q418      Q119      Q219        Q319        Q419        Q120
Cash       308       794.6     745.4     766.5     918.9     1,882.3     1,881.8     1,852.7     1,843.4  
Debt       0         0         0         434.5     445.2     450.5       452.2       458.2       464.4

Cash Flow Statement:

They were Cashflow positive with $590 thousand in cash compared to (17,117) YoY.
This was the first quarter that they were cash flow positive since Q318.
Their stock based compensation is very high with almost 19% as a percentage
of revenue. They bought Sendgrid in February of 2019, which would have been
the end of their Q418 quarter. The next quarter(Q119) their stock based
compensation went from 15.7% of Revenue to 25% of revenue. They have slowly
been bringing that down. Here are the numbers.

 
            Q118     Q218     Q318     Q418     Q119       Q219       Q319       Q419        Q120

FCF         $11.2M   $(4.3M)  $12.8M   $(10.8m) $(17.1M)   $(15.1M)   $(1.56M)   $(19.5M)    $.59M
Stock Comp  $17.54M  $21M     $22.7M   $31.99M  $58.3M     $70.7M     $68.3M     $66.99M     $69M
Stock Cmp%  13.6%    14.2%    13.5%    15.7%    25%        25.7%      23.1%      20.2%       18.9%

Conclusion:

Twlo was very excited by this quarter. They stated that this pandemic, while
not something they would wish for, was exactly what Twlo was made for. It
allowed many of the companies to keep working while communicating with their
customers. George Hu stated that they saw a 25 percent more daily sign ups
from March 18th to April 30th. He went on to further claim that companies need
to move their contact centers quickly to the cloud. If true this should create
the Sendgrid portion of their business to really take off. He claimed that 17%
of the contact centers are in the cloud right now but by 2025 he expects it to
be 50%. They started a new program called the Twilio Lightening program that
will allow people to deploy very fast in some cases in a few days. Personally I
think Twlo has disrupted the telephone, small business phone network and is going
to come out of this pandemic stronger and larger. Jeff Lawson towards the end of
the call said he was really excited about their business going forward.

Some final numbers:

 
             Q118      Q218      Q318      Q418      Q119      Q219     Q319      Q419      Q120
DNER         132%      137%      145%      147%      146%      140%     132%      124%      143%
Acc Cust     53985     57350     61153     64286     154797    161869   172092    179000    190000
Acc Cust Gr                                31%       187%      182%     181%      178%      23%

“We delivered strong first quarter revenue growth of 57% year-over-year, as
customers across industries turned to Twilio’s customer engagement platform
to accelerate their digital transformation efforts,” said Jeff Lawson, Twilio’s
co-founder and CEO. “Our platform provides three things the world needs right now:
digital engagement, software agility and cloud scale.”

First Quarter 2020 Financial Highlights

•Total revenue of $364.9 million for the first quarter of 2020, up 57% year-over-year.
•GAAP loss from operations of $92.7 million for the first quarter of 2020, compared
to $87.6 million for the first quarter of 2019.
•Non-GAAP income from operations of $6.1 million for the first quarter of 2020,
compared to $3.4 million for the first quarter of 2019.
•GAAP net loss per share attributable to common stockholders of $0.68 for the
first quarter of 2020, based on 139.2 million weighted average shares outstanding,
compared to $0.31 for the first quarter of 2019.
•Non-GAAP diluted net income per share attributable to common stockholders of $0.06
based on 148.4 million non-GAAP weighted average shares outstanding, compared to
$0.05 for the first quarter of 2019.

Key Metrics and Recent Business Highlights

•More than 190,000 Active Customer Accounts as of March 31, 2020, up 23%
year-over-year.
•Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate, calculated using total revenue, was 143%
for the first quarter of 2020, compared to 142% for the first quarter of 2019.
Excluding the January 2020 contribution from Twilio SendGrid, the acquisition of
which closed February 1, 2019, the dollar-based net expansion rate would have
been 135% for the first quarter of 2020.
•3,060 employees as of March 31, 2020.
•Application-to-person fees benefited total revenue by approximately $4 million
and negatively impacted non-GAAP gross margin by approximately 70 basis points.
•Welcomed Christy Lake as Chief People Officer and Steve Pugh as Chief Security
Officer.
•Joined state attorneys’ general anti-robocalling coalition and started signing
enterprise calls using SHAKEN/STIR protocols to help combat illegal robocalling.

Historic Numbers

February 7, 2017 4Q:2016 earnings highlights:
** 4Q revenue was $81.952 million up from $51.338 million
** Fiscal 2016 revenue was $277.335 million up from $166.919 million
** TTM revenue per share was $3.22 per share
** 4Q earnings were (loss) ($0.15) up from ($0.48) per share
** Fiscal 2016 earnings were (loss) ($0.78) up from (loss) ($2.19) per share
** Diluted share count 86.133 million
** Cash $313.11 million: debt 0
** Cash flow for the year was negative ($15.6 million)
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative ($6.29 million)
** Stock based compensation for the year was $24.225 million up from $8.877 million
** Trading range between February 7, 2017 and May 2, 2017 was $26.76 to $34.95:
PE ratio range NA: Cash flow yield range NA: PS ratio range was 8.31 to 10.85
** Special note: the price fell $8.93 the day after the report to close at $25.01 on May 3, 2017.

May 2, 2017 1Q:2017 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $87.372 million up 47.24% from $59.34 million
** TTM revenue was $305.367 million or $3.45 per share
** Earnings were (loss) ($0.16) up from (loss) ($0.37)
** TTM earnings were ($0.57) per share
** Diluted share count 88.613 million
** Cash $296 million: debt 0
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative ($6.18 million) down from $2.75 million
** TTM cash flow was negative ($24.53 million)
** Active customer accounts 40,696 up 42.1% from 28,648
** Trading range between May 2, 2017 and August 7, 2017 was $22.80 to $32.23:
PE ratio range was NA: Cash flow yield range NA: PS ratio range was 6.61 to 9.34

August 7, 2017 2Q:2017 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $95.87 million up 48.6% from $64.51 million
** TTM revenue was $336.73 million or $3.71 per share
** Earnings were (loss) ($0.08) up from ($0.45) per share
** TTM earnings were (loss) ($0.20) per share
** Diluted share count 90.873 million
** Active customer accounts 43,431 up from 30.780: Dollar-based net expansion rate 131%
** Cash flow for six months was negative ($18.821 million) down from negative ($2.22 million)
** TTM cash flow was negative ($32.201 million)
** Cash $297 million: debt 0
** Trading range between August 7, 2017 and November 8, 2017 was $26.86 to $34.74:
PE ratio range NA: Cash flow yield NA: PS ratio range was 7.24 to 9.36
** Special Note: The stock price increased $3.05 the day after the report to close at $33.58 on August 8, 2017

November 8, 2017 3Q:2017 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $100.542 million up from $71.533 million
** TTM revenue was $365.74 million or $3.97 per share
** Earnings were (loss) ($0.25) down from ($0.13)
** TTM earnings were (loss) ($0.32) per share
** Diluted share count 92.157 million
** Cash $291.387 million: debt 0
** Cash flow for nine months negative ($28 million) down from ($9.31 million)
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative ($9.179 million) down from negative ($7.09 million)
** TTM cash flow was negative ($34.29 million)
** Active customer accounts 46,489 up from 34,457: Dollar-based net expansion rate was 122%
** Trading range between November 8, 2017 and February 13, 2018 was $23.25 to $28.50:
PE ratio range NA: Cash flow yield NA: PS ratio range was 5.86 to 7.2

February 13, 2018 4Q:2017 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $115.236 million up 40.6% from $81.952 million
** TTM revenue was $399.02 million up 43.88% from $277.335 million
** TTM Revenue per share was $4.28 per share 32.9%
** Earnings were (loss) ($0.20) down from (0.15)
** Fiscal 2017 earnings (loss) were ($0.70)
** Diluted share count 93.247 million
** Cash $296.375 million: debt 0
** Cash flow for the year was negative ($29.788 million)
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative ($1.788 million) up from negative ($6.29 million)
** Stock based compensation $49.619 million up from $24.225 million
** Trading range between February 13, 2018 and May 8, 2018 was $28.59 to $44.74:
PS ratio range was 6.68 to 10.45: PE ratio range NA: Cash flow yield NA:
** Special Note: The stock price increased $4.28 per share the day after the report
to close at $30.72 per share.

May 8, 2018 1Q:2018 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $129.116 million up from $87.372 million
** TTM revenue was $440.764 million or $4.66 per share
** Earnings were (loss) ($0.25) down from ($0.16)
** TTM earnings were (loss) ($0.76) per share
** Diluted share count 94.674 million
** Cash $313.51 million: debt 0
** Cash flow for the quarter was $11.201 million up from negative (6.18 million)
** TTM cash flow was negative ($12.407 million)
** Trading range between May 8, 2018 and August 6, 2018 was $48.15 to $65.37:
PS ratio range was 10.33 to 14.02: PE ratio NA Cash flow yield NA
** Special Note: The stock price increased $8.06 the day after the report
to close at $52.41 on May 9, 2018

August 6, 2018 2Q:2018 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $147.754 million up 54.1% from $95.870 million
** TTM revenue was $492.648 million or $5.11 per share
** Earnings were (loss) ($0.25) down from ($0.08)
** TTM earnings were (loss) ($0.93) per share
** Diluted share count 96.348 million
** Cash $800.151 million: debt $423.099 million
** Stock based compensation for six months was $38.546 million up from $21.785 million
** TTM stock based compensation was $66.38 million
** Employees 1119
** Cash flow for six months was $7.201 million up from negative ($10.7 million)
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative ($4 million) up from negative ($4.52 million)
** TTM cash flow was negative ($11.89 million)
** Active customer count 57,350 up from 43,431: Dollar-based Net Expansion rate was 137%
** Gross margins 54%
** Trading range between August 6, 2018 and November 6, 2018 was $62.43 to $88.88:
PS ratio range was 12.22 to 17.39: Cash flow yield range NA: PE ratio range NA
** Special Note: The stock price increased $11.28 per share the day after the report to close at $75.10 on August 7, 2018

November 6, 2018 3Q:2018 earnings highlights:
** Revenues were $168.895 million up 67.99% from $100.542 million
** TTM revenue was $561.001 million or $5.72 per share
** Earnings were (loss) ($0.28) down from ($0.25)
** TTM earnings were ($0.96)
** Diluted share count 98.02 million
** Cash $765.535 million: debt $428.778 million
** Cash flow for three quarters was ($5.491 million) up from negative ($27.948 million)
** TTM cash flow was Negative ($7.331 million)
** Stock based compensation was $61.287 million up from $35.973 million
** TTM stock based compensation was $74.933 million or 13.71% of sales
** Trading range between November 6, 2018 and February 12, 2019 was $71.56 to $119 per share:
PE ratio range NA: Cash flow yield range NA: PS ratio range was 12.51 to 20.80
** Special Note: The stock price increased $25.17 per share the day after
the report to close at $96.19

February 12, 2019 4Q:2018 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $204.302 million up 77.3% from $115.236 million
** Fiscal 2018 revenue was $650.067 million (62.92%) up from $399.02 million
** TTM revenue per share was $6.54 per share (52.8%)
** 4Q earnings (loss) ($0.47) down from ($0.20) per share
** TTM earnings were ($1.26) down from ($0.70) per share
** Diluted share count 99.418 million
** Cash $766.462 million: Convertible senior notes $434.497 million
** Cash flow for the year was negative ($16.231 million) up from negative ($29.783 million)
** Stock based compensation for the year was $93.273 million
** Trading range between February 12, 2019 and April 30, 2019 was $103.25 to $137.40:
PS ratio was 15.79 to 21: Cash flow yield range was NA: PE range NA
** Special note: The stock price fell $8.42 per share the day after the report
to close at $106.87 on February 13, 2019

April 30, 2019 1Q:2019 earnings highlights:
** Revenues were $233.139 million up 80.57% from $129.116 million
** TTM Revenue was $754.09 million (71.1%) or $6.47 per share (38.84%)
** Earnings (loss) ($0.31) down from ($0.25) per share
** TTM earnings were (loss) ($1.33) per share
** Diluted share count 116.59 million
** Cash $920 million: debt $443.11 million
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative ($17.117 million) down from $11.201 million
** TTM cash flow for ($44.549 million)
** Trading range between April 30, 2019 and July 31, 2019 was $122.56 to $151(June 20, 2019):
PS ratio range was 18.94 to 23.34: PE ratio range NA: Cash flow yield range NA:
** Special Note: The stock price fell $8.57 per share the day after the report
to close at $128.57 per share on May 1, 2019

July 31, 2019 2Q:2019 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $275.039 million up 86.14% from $147.754 million
** TTM revenue was $881.375 million (78.9%) or $6.82 per share 33.46%
** Earnings were (loss) ($0.72) down from ($0.25) per share
** TTM earnings were (loss) ($1.80) per share
** Diluted share count 129.311 million
** Cash and investments $1.883 billion: debt $450.533 million
** Cash flow for six months was negative ($24.339 million) down from $9.267 million
** TTM cash flow was negative ($49.827 million)
** Trading range between July 31, 2019 and October 30, 2019 was $99.70 to $143.98:
PE ratio range was NA: PS ratio range was 14.62 to 21.11: Cash flow yield range was NA:

October 30, 2019 3Q:2019 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $295.066 million up 74.7% from $168.895 million
** TTM Revenue was $1.008 billion (79.7%) or $7.39 per share (29.2%)
** Earnings (loss)($0.64) down from ($0.28)
** TTM earnings (loss) ($2.16) per share
** Diluted share count 136.4 million
** Cash $1.882 billion: debt $452.184 million
** Cash flow for the nine months was negative ($33.78 million) down from
negative ($5.871 million)
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative ($9.441 million) an improvement
from the negative ($15.138 million) reported last year.
** TTM cash flow was negative ($44.14 million)
** 172,092 active customer accounts up from 61,153
** Gross margins were 58.4%
** Stock based compensation for nine months was $129.064 million up from $38.546 million
** The trading range between October 30, 2019 and February 6, 2020 was $89.81
(November 5, 2019) and $133: PE ratio range NA: Cash flow yield range NA:
PS ratio range 12.15 to 18:
** Special Note: The price dropped $11.14 the day after the report to close
at $96.56 on October 31, 2019

February 5, 2020 4Q:2019 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $331.224 million up 62.13% from $204.302 million
** TTM revenue was $1.135 billion up 74.6% from $650.067 million
** TTM Revenue per share was $8.24 per share up 25.99%
** 4Q earnings (loss) was ($0.66) down from ($0.47) per share
** Fiscal 2019 earnings were ($2.36) down from ($1.26) per share
** Diluted share count 137.729 million
** Cash $1.85 billion: debt $458.19 million
** Cash flow for the year was negative ($53.242 million) down from ($16.672 million)
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative ($19.462 million) down from ($10.801 million)
** Stock-based compensation for the quarter was $66.986 million up 109% from $31.986 million
** Stock-based compensation for the year was $264.318 million up 183% from $93.273 million
** Trading range between October 31st, 2019 and the present
February 6, 2020 was $89.81 to $133: PS ratio range was 10.90 to 16.14:
** Special Note: The stock price fell $8.29 the day after the report to
close at $118.86 on February 6, 2020

May 6th, 2020 1Q:2020 earnings highlights:
** Revenue was $364.868 million up 56.50% from $233.139 million
** TTM revenue was $1,266.197 billion up 67.9% from $754.088 million
** TTM Revenue per share was $9.09 per share
** 4Q earnings (loss) was ($0.68) down from ($0.31) per share
** Fiscal 2019 earnings were ($2.70) down from ($1.31) per share
** Diluted share count 139,231,594 million
** Cash $1.843 billion: debt $464.4 million
** Cash flow for the quarter was $590 thousand up from ($17.117 million)
** Cash flow for the year was negative ($35.535 million) down from ($19,344million)
** Stock-based compensation for the quarter was $69.025 million up 18% from $58.324 million
** Stock-based compensation for the year was $275.019 million up 105% from $134.057 million
** Trading range between February 6, 2020 and May 7th, 2020 was $68.06 to $176.37:
PE ratio range NA: Cash flow yield range NA: PS ratio range was 7.48 to 19.39:
** Special Note: The day after the report the stock went up $48.49, from $122.40 to $170.89

Andy

47 Likes

Hi Andy,

Thanks for sharing your work. I get a little confused when your first showing GAAP and non-GAAP side by side and then showing only GAAP for the current Quarter. this is what I have for the current Quarter for Non-GAAP for TWLO:
Q1 2020 Revenue was $364.9M, up 56.5% year/year. Consensus estimates were for $327.6M, or 40.5% growth. This represents a beat of $37.3M or an extra 16% of annualized growth outperformance. Organic growth (removing impact of SendGrid) was 48% year/year. This compares to 36% organic growth in Q4, so a substantial re-acceleration of revenue growth in an apples-to-apples comparison of the core business.
EPS was $0.06 vs. ($0.11) expected, representing a beat of $0.17. EPS in Q1 2019 was $0.05.
Non-GAAP operating income was $6.1M, representing an operating margin of 1.7%. This compares to operating income of $3.4M and an operating margin of 1.5% in Q1 2019.
Q2 Revenue estimate of $365-370M, representing growth of 33-35% year/year. Consensus revenue estimate was $323.4M, for growth of 22%, so a substantial raise here. Projected Q2 growth can be compared to the organic growth rate of 48% in Q1, but should take into account the 16% annualized outperformance from Q1 to evaluate concerns around deceleration.
Q2 EPS estimate of ($0.11) to ($0.08) vs. ($0.14) expected, representing a raise of $0.05 at the midpoint.
Q2 Non-GAAP operating loss estimated in the range of ($20M) to ($15M).
Due to the uncertainly of the length of the COVID-19 situation, Twilio withdrew its 2020 guidance. I think this is reasonable, given that it’s possible the COVID-19 situation could get worse.
Ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $1.8B.

Does that look right?

Jason

1 Like

Hi Jason,

The only numbers I was reporting in N-Gaap was EPS. But looking back at my report I did notice I reported something wrong.

** Cash flow for the quarter was negative $590 thousand up from ($17.117 million)

Which should have read:

** Cash flow for the quarter was $590 thousand up from ($17.117 million)

As far as your Revenue numbers I have Twilio guiding last quarter for $334-$338 still a nice beat.

Non-Gaap loss per share of -.11 to -.09 so yes that was a nice beat.

I do like the way you are looking at it Jason.

What I am trying to look at is a way to profitability on a Gaap and N-Gaap basis. So I am watching all the numbers on a Gaap basis and only the EPS on a N-Gaap basis. That is also why I am watching FCF and Operating expenses. I want to find companies that are moving to profitability. If all they do is spend money, issue shares, and never become profitable, then at some point I will want to jettison them.

Not now of course because they have been growing revenues above 50%. Which is great. As far as next quarter, Twilio is guiding towards $365-$370 million in Revenue. Let’s hope they beat that by a wide margin. Because if they are growing in the 30 percent range and are not at least FCF positive I do not think I will be keeping them. I hope that helps.

Andy

7 Likes

Argus analyst Jim Kelleher, CFA, wrote an analyst report on TWLO today, July 16, 2020. I can’t share the link but below is a summary:

ARGUS RATING: BUY
• COVID accelerates digital strategy; raising target to $260
• Twilio posted a study indicating that enterprises are compressing their multi-year digital strategy roadmaps into much shorter timeframes.
• The survey’s findings state that COVID-19 is the ‘digital accelerant of the decade.’ Prior inhibitions to digital innovation have been swept aside.
• Companies are rapidly expanding their omni-channel communications strategies, a development that is clearly beneficial for Twilio.
• Reiterating our BUY rating on TWLO to a 12-month target price of $260, raised from $200

I won’t rehash the 1Q20 financials as they are given in this thread but there has been some concern that the company lacked transparency in reporting revenue, in the past, including acquisitive revenue that may not be material to an accurate portrayal of the company’s performance. This alone caused some to trim their position if not sell their entire position. That said, TWLO’s study could be applied to other companies in this category, including SPLK, which has a higher projected 5 year growth rate, 30%, than TWLO, which is 12% (Argus has both at “Buy” ratings).

For 2Q20, management projected revenue of $365-$370M, well above the $338 prereporting consensus forecast; this guidance is consistent with 33%-plus growth, all of it organic.
Management also forecast a non-GAAP operating loss of $15-$20 million. The Street had been modeling a $0.13 per-share loss, which would imply a non-GAAP operating loss of $25-$30 million.
(The company has withdrawn its full-year 2020 guidance.)

11 Likes

From the SSI weekly newsletter this week: ‘Twilio had a couple of significant announcements last week as well. First, Twilio Programmable Video is powering the Dialer Video product from Doximity. This provides a secure and reliable video call between physicians and patients through a smartphone app. Over 100,000 U.S. physicians are using the Doximity app for telemedicine visits. Tucked into the press release, Twilio highlighted significant growth in use of their programmable video product. Tucked into the press release, Twilio highlighted significant growth in use of their programmable video product. They noted a 540% year/year increase in weekly minutes and a 100% increase in overall use of their platform by healthcare customers.

Additionally, Twilio announced the acquisition of Electric Imp on July 9th. Electric Imp provides a platform that makes it easier for businesses to securely connect IoT devices to software in their data centers and third-party services. Electric Imp abstracts away the maintenance of IoT networks, by managing software updates and security. The move should help expand Twilio’s offerings in the IoT space, which they have highlighted in the past as a large future growth opportunity. Though not directly related, the next day KeyBanc raised their price target for Twilio to $270.’

7 Likes

Hi GaryMF2020,

I sent you a question as an off-board email but you have not responded. Perhaps it went into your junk mail.

Saul

3 Likes

That said, TWLO’s study could be applied to other companies in this category, including SPLK, which has a higher projected 5 year growth rate, 30%, than TWLO, which is 12% (Argus has both at “Buy” ratings).

Hi Gary, What category are you putting TWLO and SPLK in? They are two very different companies. I really do not follow what analyst are saying about any of the companies that I am following because I find that they really do not have any more insight than I do. Not that I am smart but things are changing so fast that all their projections are usually wrong. The reason I am invested still in TWLO is that I think they are disrupting the old Telecommunications networks, seen by the old Telco companies loss of marketshare in land lines and Enterprise communication products. I don’t want to rehash the old argument that TWLO was hiding their Revenue or overstating their Revenue because I thought that was a weak argument. It takes time for a product to grow but I do think their Sendgrid acquisition will finally start to show strength especially with the bigger push onto the Cloud.

Andy

2 Likes

Hi Andy - you bring up a good point. The analyst did a comparison of TWLO to “its industry peers, the broader sector, and the market as a whole, as defined by the Argus Universe of Coverage”. So my sense is their comparison is somewhat arbitrary, in that, they might consider a handful of “SaaS” companies as industry peers, independent of the focus of those SaaS companies. See a condensed look at their comparison below. The fact that they include LYFT in the comparison suggests something of the value of the comparison. I only included the SPLK call out because of its 5 year growth rate. MDB also has a predicted 5 year growth rate of 30%, as defined by the analyst.


Ticker     5 year Growth Rate(%)     Current FY P/E  net margin%   1yr EPS growth(%)        Rating
SPLK             30.0                     -426.7      -20.6          351.1                    BUY
SNAP             12.0                     -245.4      -55.4          250.0                    BUY
TWLO             12.0                    2,038.8      -28.9          190.9                    BUY
PANW             21.0                       50.0       -7.0           24.1                    BUY
CHKP              8.0                       19.4       41.0            8.1                    HOLD
NLOK              5.0                       20.4      125.9           29.3                    HOLD
MDB              30.0                     -165.6       42.4           35.2                    HOLD
LYFT             20.0                      -13.6      -49.1          131.0                    BUY
Peer Average     17.3                      159.7       -4.5          127.5

Thanks,
Gary

2 Likes

In this world of rapid change I would not put much faith in any estimates of 5 year EPS growth. It’s hard enough to guesstimate the next quarter or year. Especially since some of them do not have any earnings now.

8 Likes

The Doximity Dailer is a great program. Doximity is kind of like LinkedIn for doctors. Their Dailer program allows one (the doc) to call patients from the doc’s cell phone displaying your name but using your office line (or whatever number you want, actually)as the calling number, thus preserving your cell phone privacy. The Doxy video dailer allows the doc to conduct televideo visits which are HIPAA compliant from the docs cell phone with anyone who has a cell phone with a camera - FaceTime without giving up your personal cell phone number and without needing an iPhone (gasp, yes I know)

In my experience, other HIPAA compliant platforms require a computer with a camera and microphone which many of my patients do not have.

Medicare does reimburse telephone calls during the COVID crisis but the reimbursement for video is usually higher per increment of time spent.PPO’s vary.

I do not know how Doximity monetizes the Dailer program, but the docs in my medical group use Doximity Dailer on a day to day basis when our company platform (AmWell) fails or patients don’t want to go through the AmWell registration or the patient does have the computer/camera/microphone set up.

3 Likes