Updating TWLO Valuation

For simplicity I am using ycharts enterprise value figures from the following data.


On Jan 31 the EV was 10.82. On Feb 1 it was 13.58.

This was mostly due to the issuance of shares to SEND share holders. SEND ceased to exist as a company and is now included in TWLO enterprise value.

TWLO TTM sales prior to Q4 release was $561M.

So yesterday morning the EV/S was $13.88/$561M for 24.74

Incorporating SEND and it’s TTM revenue into EV and updating TWLO TTM. I am estimating SEND TTM at $130M. I think that is a reasonable guesstimate, if someone has a more accurate number please reply with it.

$650+130= $780M

$13.88B/$780M for 17.8

FEV/S based of guidance.

$13.88B/$1.077B for 12.88


Who doesn’t believe TWLO will grow at 40% for full year 2019 for a second


Hi Darth:

When you are right you are right!

Was following your thread over on Tinker’s board and couldn’t agree more with your insight and logic; but don’t take my word for it. I was going to jump in and support you there but you seemed to be doing pretty good on your own and I was pacing myself. Just hoping that the Flee-For-Your-Life crowd sells like mad this morning so I can add. Seems like a no brainer to me but I am simple that way.

Darth - You are Right!

All the Best!



Another way to look at it.

Current EV/S for TWLO+SEND = 17.8
Projected to grow 38% (1.077/0.78) in 2019

Let us look at SHOP which also reported yesterday:
Current P/S = 18.1
Projected to grow 40% in 2019. They will do 43% I think.

Why IS TWLO lot more attractive than SHOP? I have not sold TWLO. But I don’t see the VOW factor here. Perhaps the belief that they will beat by huge amounts in 2019 and unlock much better growth in 2020? But the momentum is with TWLO no doubt.


Tex I am a big SHOP investor too.

I like and own both.

I hope TWLO busts through $1B mark with a growth rate of 54% like SHOP did. What an achievement. That will sure change all those numbers.

Go back and look at Q4 2017 for TWLO. Then look at each quarter. They raised FY Guidance $20M or so each quarter. They pick a growth rate and then multiply it out to give initial guidance. It is literally a worst case guess this far out. Their market and business are caught up in a whirlwind or maybe a tornado. They can barely predict next quarter even. It seems high and then they beat it by a LOT. I don’t know when the music stops for that growth, but it’s not now.

Some may be down on SHOP. I am not. I loaded up on TWLO on the AH dump last night. SHOP will be on short list for adding next.


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Sendgrid’s last guidance for full 2018 was 144m.

SendGrid Announces Second Quarter 2018 Results and Raises Outlook https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17231521?source=ansh $SEND

They had 1 more ER CC after this, but due to pending aqcuisition by twlo they did not offer further guidance.

So combined 2018 revenues probably more like $796m.




Sendgrid’s last guidance for full 2018 was 144m.

On the call, SEND confirmed that they actually did 41m in Q4. That takes them to 146m for the year.

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