Twilio (NYSE:TWLO): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.05 beats by $0.04; GAAP EPS of -$0.31.
Revenue of $233.1M (+80.6% Y/Y) beats by $9.65M.
Wow!
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TWLO currently down AH -4.10%.
ENPH currently up AH 12.33%.
Bought a ton more ENPH last night. whew
Already have ton of TWLO. Not touching, no, uh uh, not going to happen.
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My selling TWLO is not going to happen. I have faith in TWLO.
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More Numbers from press release:
Q1 Total Revenue of $233.1 million, up 81% year-over-year
Q1 Base Revenue of $220.9 million, up 88% year-over-year
Q1 Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate of 146%
First Quarter 2019 Financial Highlights
– Total revenue of $233.1 million for the first quarter of 2019, up 81% from the first quarter of 2018 and 14% sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2018. Total Revenue includes revenue from Twilio SendGrid starting on February 1, 2019 (the date of acquisition).
– Base revenue of $220.9 million for the first quarter of 2019, up 88% from the first quarter of 2018 and 19% sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2018. Base Revenue includes revenue from Twilio SendGrid starting on February 1, 2019 (the date of acquisition).
– GAAP loss from operations of $87.6 million for the first quarter of 2019, compared with GAAP loss from operations of $24.3 million for the first quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP income from operations of $3.4 million for the first quarter of 2019, compared with non-GAAP loss from operations of $4.7 million for the first quarter of 2018.
– GAAP net loss per share attributable to common stockholders, basic and diluted, of $0.31 based on 116.6 million weighted average shares outstanding in the first quarter of 2019, compared with GAAP net loss per share attributable to common stockholders, basic and diluted, of $0.25 based on 94.7 million weighted average shares outstanding in the first quarter of 2018.
– Non-GAAP net income per share attributable to common stockholders, diluted, of $0.05 based on 130.1 million non-GAAP weighted average shares outstanding in the first quarter of 2019, compared with non-GAAP net loss per share attributable to common stockholders, diluted, of $0.04 based on 94.7 million weighted average shares outstanding in the first quarter of 2018.
Key Metrics and Recent Business Highlights
– 154,797 Active Customer Accounts as of March 31, 2019, compared to 53,985 Active Customer Accounts as of March 31, 2018. Active Customer Accounts in the current period include the contribution from Twilio SendGrid customer accounts.
– Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate was 146% for the first quarter of 2019, compared to 132% for the first quarter of 2018. Twilio SendGrid results do not impact the calculation of this metric in the current period.
– 2,114 employees as of March 31, 2019.
– Introduced new Expert Services offerings to provide customers with options for additional support, education, detailed data and analytics, and expert guidance to help optimize their email programs and drive business results.
– Launched Twilio for Salesforce on the Salesforce AppExchange to allow organizations using Salesforce to easily send and receive SMS messages directly from their Salesforce CRM.
– Added a new authentication method in the Twilio Authy two-factor authentication API that enables Transactional TOTP, or time-based one-time passcodes, in support of Payment Services Directive 2 (PSD2) requirements in Europe.
– Announced support for Accelerated Mobile Pages (AMP) for email, a new technology being implemented by Google that enables a more dynamic and interactive experience for Gmail.
Outlook
Twilio is providing guidance for the second quarter ending June 30, 2019 and full year ending December 31, 2019 as follows (guidance includes outlook for SendGrid from February 1, 2019, the date of acquisition):
Quarter ending June 30, 2019:
Total Revenue (millions) $ 262.0 to $ 265.0
Base Revenue (millions) $ 252.0 to $ 254.0
Non-GAAP income from operations
(millions) $ - to $ 1.0
Non-GAAP net income per share $ 0.02 to $ 0.03
Non-GAAP weighted average shares
outstanding (millions) 140
Non-GAAP income tax rate 25%
Full year ending December 31, 2019:
Total Revenue (millions) $1,102.0 to $1,111.0
Base Revenue (millions) $1,062.0 to $1,068.0
Non-GAAP income from operations
(millions) $ 5.0 to $ 8.0
Non-GAAP net income per share $ 0.11 to $ 0.13
Non-GAAP weighted average shares
outstanding (millions) 141
Non-GAAP income tax rate 25%
19 Likes
Just an add-on…whatever short term/market closed shenanigans drove this red for 20 minutes after earning seems to be over… this sucker is gonna be green to the tune of $150 by 10:30 tomorrow, or my name isn’t Zeke Yeehaw. There wasn’t anything to even sneeze at in those earning. Let’s see what the conference call brings.
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As of April 14th approximately 8% of the float was short.
Translates to about 2 days to cover.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWLO/key-statistics?p=TWL…
Frank - long TWLO, see profile for all holdings
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It seems to me like that growth is inflated by the acquisition…
Their guidance:
2019 Q2 $263.5
2019 FY $1107
Which seems like only %18 growth on a per share basis?
( I know I didn’t explain that well, but i’m in a rush )
Their y/y growth for this Q is definitely inflated via SEND acquisition, but also only contains SEND revenue for 2 of the 3 months of Q1, as the deal closed in Feb.
SEND finished 2018 about $146m rev, growing in 30% y/y range.
TWLO finished 2018 about 650m rev, growing in 55-60% y/y range.
Combined, that is about $800m runrate.
Time will tell if SEND drags down overall TWLO growth rate or if TWLO sales team ramps up legacy-SEND product growth rate.
TWLO is known to sandbag and their guidance is already up to $1.1b when $1.2b in 2019 by TWLO+SEND would be an actual 50% growth y/y of TWLO+SEND in 2018.
So I feel comfortable that legacy TWLO is still cranking away if they are poised to do 50% growth y/y, which means legacy TWLO is likely over 50% y/y in order to pull up the slower-growing SEND segment.
That is what my napkin math says, anyway.
Dreamer
28 Likes
this sucker is gonna be green to the tune of $150 by 10:30 tomorrow, or my name isn’t Zeke Yeehaw
I sure hope you are right, Zeke. I bought more at $141 AH. Wish I had been online during that 20 mins it dropped to the low 130s …
The Dog
Their y/y growth for this Q is definitely inflated via SEND acquisition, but also only contains SEND revenue for 2 of the 3 months of Q1, as the deal closed in Feb.
I dug into the press release as soon as I saw the 80% YOY growth figure. Since TWLO doesn’t give us the separate SendGrid and Twilio numbers for Q1 '19, one way to see the combined entities true growth rate is to compare Q1 '19 figure that they gave us today with Twilio’s Q1 '18 revenue + two-thirds of SendGrid’s Q1 '18 revenue.
Twilio Q1 '19 Revenue (given today): $233.1MM
Twilio Q1 '18 Revenue: $129.1MM
- 2/3 SendGrid Q1 '18 Revenue: 2/3 * $32.57MM
= Twilio comparable Q1 '18 Revenue: $150.81MM
With that done, Twilio’s true growth rate for the quarter is about 63.75%. Still a great number, but lower than 77% last quarter and 68% the quarter before (which makes sense considering SendGrid was growing at ~30%).
This may be why the stock hasn’t taken off after-hours. Good numbers, but nothing remarkably out of the ordinary for Twilio.
Feel free to challenge my math and logic!
CloudAtlas
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With that done, Twilio’s true growth rate for the quarter is about 63.75%
Whoops, just checked my math. The logic is still correct, but 233.1/150.81 is actually 54.5% growth, not 63.75%. Sorry about that
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With that done, Twilio’s true growth rate for the quarter is about 63.75%
Whoops, just checked my math. The logic is still correct, but 233.1/150.81 is actually 54.5% growth, not 63.75%. Sorry about that
63.75% is exactly right. Basically you want to get rid of SendGrid numbers first, the true TWLO 19Q1 is $211.4M. Divided by 18Q1 revenue $129.1 = 1.6375. So true TWLO growth is 63.75%
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63.75% is exactly right. Basically you want to get rid of SendGrid numbers first, the true TWLO 19Q1 is $211.4M. Divided by 18Q1 revenue $129.1 = 1.6375. So true TWLO growth is 63.75%
How do you know what SendGrid’s Q1 '19 revenue numbers are? Did Twilio break them out somewhere?
The earnings call stated base earnings grew +60% and send grid was 30%.
Unhelpfully they won’t split out revenue going forward…
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How do you know what SendGrid’s Q1 '19 revenue numbers are? Did Twilio break them out somewhere?
I don’t know. Just used your number which is 2/3 of the 18Q1 revenue. But instead of using the combined revenue, I take out the SendGrid revenue to look at TWLO numbers only to get pure TWLO growth. I think you did the same way the first round. That’s why you had the same 63.75%. The true growth rate should be a little bit under 63.75% since SendGrid also grow around 30%.
CloudAtlas:
Twilio Q1 '19 Revenue (given today): $233.1MM
Twilio Q1 '18 Revenue: $129.1MM
+ 2/3 SendGrid Q1 '18 Revenue: 2/3 * $32.57MM
= Twilio comparable Q1 '18 Revenue: $150.81MM
With that done, Twilio’s true growth rate for the quarter is about 63.75%. Still a great number, but lower than 77% last quarter and 68% the quarter before (which makes sense considering SendGrid was growing at ~30%).
Whoops, just checked my math. The logic is still correct, but 233.1/150.81 is actually 54.5% growth, not 63.75%. Sorry about that
Kevin2017:
63.75% is exactly right. Basically you want to get rid of SendGrid numbers first, the true TWLO 19Q1 is $211.4M. Divided by 18Q1 revenue $129.1 = 1.6375. So true TWLO growth is 63.75%
CloudAtlas:
How do you know what SendGrid’s Q1 '19 revenue numbers are? Did Twilio break them out somewhere?
First off, this exercise shows how confusing it is/will be with TWLO numbers for the next year as the SendGrid acquisition gets integrated into the TWLO numbers. Many folks will get the numbers wrong (including analysts and many investors), and Twilio is not giving us everything directly so there have to be some assumptions made to estimate the numbers we want.
Secondly, I’m doing this with the assumption that your numbers above are correct (I haven’t checked them).
That said, I don’t believe Twilio broke out the Q1 '19 numbers, what it looks to me like Kevin did, was subtracted 2/3 * $32.57MM from the $233.1MM (Q1 '19 combined number) to get the Q1 '19 just Twilio number of $233.1MM - (2/3 * $32.57MM) = $211.39MM used in his calculations above. This is incorrect as it is not accounting for ANY growth with the SendGrid numbers from '18 to '19. What needed to be done to use the SendGrid numbers is increase the (2/3 * $32.57) by 30% (SendGrid’s approx growth rate). This comes out to $28.23MM est for 2 months of Q1 '19 SendGrid rev. So $233.1MM - $28.23MM = $204.87MM est for just TWLO Q1 '19 rev. Compare that to the TWLO Q1 '18 rev of $129.1MM, you get 204.87/129.1 = 1.5869, so a growth rate of 58.7% for JUST TWLO for this quarter compared to last year.
Hopefully my calcs are correct…I’ve been wrong before, and this does get confusing.
I good number, almost 60%, but definitely down from the previous couple quarters’ growth rates. I’m curious how folks on this forum will react. I just posted a message earlier today about myself holding stocks usually much longer than folks here, so we’ll see who bails on this reduced growth rate…I’ll be holding/adding as opportunities present themselves as I think TWLO still has a fantastic future, even with the reduced growth rate.
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SEND Q1/18 is 32.6
Assume growth rate of 31% for Q1/19, SEND revenue would have been 32.6 * 1.31 = 42.7.
Assume equal monthly revenue, 42.7 * 2/3 = 28.47 for the 2 months in TWLO Q1/19
TWLO reported Q1/19 $233.9
If we minus SEND 2 months, we have 233.9 – 28.47 = 204.6
TWLO organic growth is $204.6 for Q1/19, which is 58.5% growth from Q1/18 (129.1)
That would be a slowdown from
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Respectfully, rather than try and separate twlo and send revenue now and moving forward, as they are truly a combined entity moving forward, it may be more predictive in the long-term to compare future 2019 Q revenues to the twlo + send revenues from the year ago 2018 Q.
So i agree on the 54.5% number.
It is declining growth, but still elite, and twilio did purposely buy a business that was growing 30%, so a dent in growth is not a shocker.
What i will watch for is to see if growth accelerates a bit in q2 or q3 as twilio starts to extract greater synergies with send.
Meaning they want 1+1 to eventually = 3, by increasing legacy send growth rates due to packaging w legacy twlo solutions and having the greater access to new and larger client base to sell legacy twlo into.
Dreamer
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Analysts are trailing indicators but what the heck:
- Twilio Inc : Canaccord Genuity raises target price to $155 from $125
- Twilio Inc : Guggenheim raises price target to $150 from $140
- Twilio Inc : JP Morgan raises target price to $150 from $125
- Twilio Inc : Rosenblatt Securities raises price target to $158 from $118
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Analyst target update
- Twilio Inc : Canaccord Genuity raises target price to $155 from $125
- Twilio Inc : Dougherty & Company raises target price to $150 from $130
- Twilio Inc : Guggenheim raises price target to $150 from $140
- Twilio Inc : JP Morgan raises target price to $150 from $125
- Twilio Inc : Monness Crespi Hardt raises price target to $175 from $150
- Twilio Inc : Northland Capital Markets raises price target to $148 from $135
- Twilio Inc : Rosenblatt Securities raises price target to $158 from $118
Average target is $155, raised $23 from $132. No target is below $148. Only thing I get from this really, is that we are not missing anything negative, and that it was universally seen as a strong earnings report.
Saul
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